ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Am I reading the 6Z Euro correctly that they agree? Could be a plowable salt event by the time it's over. Car wash gift cards for Christmas! Nothing on the 6z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Am I crazy or has the late night sky registered as a brighter, bluer color recently? Almost an early twilight color? Maybe there's a simple explanation like an inversion or maybe it's a natural hue of the night sky but my brain keeps interpreting it as unfamiliar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 hours ago, ChescoWx said: Nothing on the 6z Euro I was looking at the 28th. Sorry. It's showing a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 12z GFS and NAM both showing some minor anafront snows on Friday....usually does not work out from my experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The fact that the GFS isn't showing anything for the 28th is an encouraging sign IMHO. Yeah, I doubt anything will happen before the New Year, but it could be one on those seasons where we don't get a long track event. Thinking it might be a year where something pops inside 72-96 hours. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 hours ago, ChescoWx said: If you want to see what a festivus miracle can look like - the always reliable 84 hour NAM delivers a plowable snow for the western burbs of Philly on Friday!! Lock it in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: 12z GFS and NAM both showing some minor anafront snows on Friday....usually does not work out from my experience 95% of the time yes I agree....cold air chasing precip is a fail. BUT....if there was ever a good setup with the temps dropping 30 degrees within an hour, this could be the 5% where we actually see flakes. I'm not hanging my Santa hat on it tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: might be a year where something pops inside 72-96 hours. Yeah that's what my wife's hoping too 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 hours ago, Maxwell03 said: Am I crazy or has the late night sky registered as a brighter, bluer color recently? Almost an early twilight color? Maybe there's a simple explanation like an inversion or maybe it's a natural hue of the night sky but my brain keeps interpreting it as unfamiliar. Interesting observation I noticed the same thing. Looks like early twilight before it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Full sunshine not a cloud even jet contrails can't form a long trail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Newman said: That would whiten the ground for Christmas, where do I sign up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 14 hours ago, penndotguy said: That would whiten the ground for Christmas, where do I sign up? I'm growing a beard...the hole 9 yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Another near normal late December day for the area today with temps touching 40 degrees this PM. Today is the calm before the storm that will arrive tomorrow AM. Clouds increase tonight with our temps actually rising after midnight. Some very brief sleet or freezing drizzle is possible just after rush hour tomorrow. This will quickly change to heavy rain which will last into Friday. A strong arctic cold front will sweep across Chester County during about the 10am hour on Friday. Any left over precipitation will change to snow or flurries for an hour or 2. Some models still hint at a small accumulation...more likely as we head west in the county. Either way rapidly falling temperatures on Friday afternoon with readings falling through the teens. Some models have temperatures as low as 12 degrees by 7pm. Many areas will see air temps in the single digits by Christmas Eve morning. High temperatures on Christmas Eve will not escape the teens. Wind chills will be well below zero all day. Christmas. A top 4 Coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day is likely. The record high for today is 62 degrees from 1971. Our record low is 1 below zero from 1942. The daily rain record is 1.56" from 1902. The daily snow mark is 2.0" from 1959. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The system on the 28th bares watching imo. Several nice hits on the EPS and the 00z euro wasn't too far off from a hit. Honestly considering this last storm trended 500 miles west in one run, it's right where we want it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 36 minutes ago, The Iceman said: The system on the 28th bares watching imo. Several nice hits on the EPS and the 00z euro wasn't too far off from a hit. Honestly considering this last storm trended 500 miles west in one run, it's right where we want it That "well respected met" JB has had his eye on this.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The current NWS Forecast has a High Temperature of 18 degrees and a Low of 9 degrees above zero for Christmas Eve Day. If the high is only 18 degrees that would be the coldest high temperature ever recorded on Christmas Eve day since records began for Chester County in 1894. The coldest high temp on Christmas Eve day was the 19 degree high back in 1906. Christmas Day warms up to a forecast high of 21 following a Christmas morning low of 11 degrees. If that Forecast holds the combined Christmas Eve and Day Holiday would be the 4th coldest holiday on record. With Christmas Eve the 4th coldest and Christmas Day the 3rd coldest on record. The combined top 15 combined cold holidays are in the table below. Merry Christmas to all stay warm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Happy 10th anniversary of the greatest forecasting bust in history -- the Mayan Apocalypse. "There was supposed to be an Earth-shattering ka-boom! Where's the Earth-shattering ka-boom??" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 12z GFS still delivers the Christmas Miracle....if you choose to believe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I will believe when I see it. 99% of the time precip dries up before it's cold enough to change over. I'm expecting nothing more than some flurries. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: I will believe when I see it. 99% of the time precip dries up before it's cold enough to change over. I'm expecting nothing more than some flurries. Agreed! I can't remember the last time we have seen snow accumulate following the FROPA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 hours ago, The Iceman said: The system on the 28th bares watching imo. Several nice hits on the EPS and the 00z euro wasn't too far off from a hit. Honestly considering this last storm trended 500 miles west in one run, it's right where we want it Are you being serious? The only watching with this one is the cold rain falling if it decides to hug the coast. Behind that one, pac puke city. Shut the blinds til Jan 8 earliest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 The Dec 27-28 thing has a progressive pna moving east linking with the NAO into a full lat eastern ridge and eventual WAR all during a massive pattern flip as a monster pv sets up over AK and sends a pac firehose into W Canada and W US. Would take the luckiest set of circumstances ever for this one to happen. That's my wag on this one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The Dec 27-28 thing has a progressive pna moving east linking with the NAO into a full lat eastern ridge and eventual WAR all during a massive pattern flip as a monster pv sets up over AK and sends a pac firehose into W Canada and W US. Would take the luckiest set of circumstances ever for this one to happen. That's my wag on this one. Per Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell "Models cant handle it as the pattern is in transition. So I am going to old school this. Positive at the top of Hudson Bay and shortening wavelengths argue to me for the coastal storm. Models are trying to develop a ridge ( which is coming) so the different branches get lost. So I believe we have the snow threat next week coming into the plains day 5. Ohio and Tennessee valley day 6 and on the east coast day 7. If I did not have almost all models telling me that is not going to happen, I would really be chomping at the bit But they could be right. The fact is the upper negative is right in the slot on the Euro packages. The GFS just kicks everything along as it always does I like it. I guess we will find out if I am right next week" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 hours ago, JTA66 said: Happy 10th anniversary of the greatest forecasting bust in history -- the Mayan Apocalypse. "There was supposed to be an Earth-shattering ka-boom! Where's the Earth-shattering ka-boom??" Give it a few more hours dude, there was a ten year discrepancy with the Gregorian calendar translation thus today is the Mayan end. Been fun weathering with ya'll. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Flood Watch just issued for part of the CWA - Flood Watch Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 327 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-220830- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0006.221222T1800Z-221223T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware- Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Philadelphia, Morrisville, Media, Norristown, Kennett Square, Camden, Glassboro, Mount Holly, Doylestown, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Pennsville, Lansdale, and West Chester 327 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware...southern New Jersey...and southeast Pennsylvania...including the following areas...in northern Delaware...New Castle. In southern New Jersey...Camden, Gloucester, Northwestern Burlington, and Salem. In southeast Pennsylvania...Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, and Philadelphia. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The Dec 27-28 thing has a progressive pna moving east linking with the NAO into a full lat eastern ridge and eventual WAR all during a massive pattern flip as a monster pv sets up over AK and sends a pac firehose into W Canada and W US. Would take the luckiest set of circumstances ever for this one to happen. That's my wag on this one. The January Thaw has begun and the Weenie jumpers will persist. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: The January Thaw has begun and the Weenie jumpers will persist. Patience. Backloaded second half of winter. If that ends up failing at least we remained hopeful thru it all. Thaw wont last forever and the blinds will open again. Fear not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Per Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell "Models cant handle it as the pattern is in transition. So I am going to old school this. Positive at the top of Hudson Bay and shortening wavelengths argue to me for the coastal storm. Models are trying to develop a ridge ( which is coming) so the different branches get lost. So I believe we have the snow threat next week coming into the plains day 5. Ohio and Tennessee valley day 6 and on the east coast day 7. If I did not have almost all models telling me that is not going to happen, I would really be chomping at the bit But they could be right. The fact is the upper negative is right in the slot on the Euro packages. The GFS just kicks everything along as it always does I like it. I guess we will find out if I am right next week" When JB speaks about snowstorms when no guidance shows such a thing, I listen intently......said no weather hobbyist ever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: The January Thaw has begun and the Weenie jumpers will persist. You forgot this illustration --> 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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