ChescoWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Of note today will be our 10th of 18 days that have been below normal. Looking ahead regarding temps we are well on our way to only our 3rd below normal December in the last 12 years as we look to be starting the next cooling cycle of our local climate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Of note today will be our 10th of 18 days that have been below normal. Looking ahead regarding temps we are well on our way to only our 3rd below normal December in the last 12 years as we look to be starting the next cooling cycle of our local climate. What is this cooling cycle and do you have any data that supports this cooling? Are we talking global? Continental? Local? Curious to read about this never heard of it before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Sorry Steve -I should have clarified - I am of course only looking at all of the Chester County NWS COOP sites for my local suburban Philly county, With the cyclical flow of my analysis of only Chester County PA (see below). We have a clear history at least here in Chester County PA of multiple decades of warming (1930's thru 1950's) followed by multiple decades of cooling (look at those 60's through 80's decades).... now followed by our recent decades of warming - so I am extremely confident we should see multiple decades of cooling as that is what the historical records show us. I am a big believer in the cyclical nature of climate and a huge believer in predictable normal climate change. I understand a lot of folks think warming will continue unabated but I just can't find any actual real world data to support this hypothesis. I am a fact based data guy and I just can't find any long term historical data points outside of heat island locations like PHL airport that support this. Does this make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Dreaming of a powerless Christmas? Strong LLJ Friday evening with the passage of the squall line over eastern PA with no sign of a surface inversion to limit mixing. Will need to watch this one, could be similar to the 2020 grinch storm where some lost power. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 48 minutes ago, Newman said: Dreaming of a powerless Christmas? Strong LLJ Friday evening with the passage of the squall line over eastern PA with no sign of a surface inversion to limit mixing. Will need to watch this one, could be similar to the 2020 grinch storm where some lost power. Thankfully I got a whole house generator this year! :) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 12 hours ago, ChescoWx said: Sorry Steve -I should have clarified - I am of course only looking at all of the Chester County NWS COOP sites for my local suburban Philly county, With the cyclical flow of my analysis of only Chester County PA (see below). We have a clear history at least here in Chester County PA of multiple decades of warming (1930's thru 1950's) followed by multiple decades of cooling (look at those 60's through 80's decades).... now followed by our recent decades of warming - so I am extremely confident we should see multiple decades of cooling as that is what the historical records show us. I am a big believer in the cyclical nature of climate and a huge believer in predictable normal climate change. I understand a lot of folks think warming will continue unabated but I just can't find any actual real world data to support this hypothesis. I am a fact based data guy and I just can't find any long term historical data points outside of heat island locations like PHL airport that support this. Does this make sense? Let me posit something - and it is related to the deep dive you recall I did of the Coatesville observer W.T. Gordon. Oddly enough I just never knew there were steel plants just outside of Philly in Coatesville because so much focus was always put on U.S. Steel in Pittsburgh and Bethlehem Steel up in the ABE area. I should have probably known better given we had the big Budd plant here in the city cranking out steel parts for cars, planes, and for what was more talked about when I was growing up - trains. When you look at your gathered temp rises and falls, you'll see that interestingly enough, they correspond with a build up leading to a peak right during the main part of WW2. The Coatesville plant was apparently making rolled steel plates where there was mention in an article I just read, would eventually be used in shipbuilding. Of course we had the Navy Yard here down in South Philly with a massive amount of shipbuilding going on all during that period. I.e., all the "Rosie the Riveters". I even had one of my aunts and her friends who briefly worked down at the Navy Yard during that period in the '40s. Once the war was over, boom! All that heavy manufacturing dropped off precipitously and eventually switched to a different type manufacturing output - homes and suburban "office parks"! And as the suburban developments expanded, someone "paved paradise and put up a parking lot" creating some mini-heat islands where they didn't exist before. This was all the post-WWII migration from the cities to the rim counties and eventually into what was dubbed "ex-burbia" (the more rural farm areas). With the recognition of that impact, you have more environmental awareness now and all those undeveloped and former rural farming areas stripped for development, have been slowly replanted, and that has helped to mitigate what was overall warming trend in that area's microclimate. In any case, as my obs - after a 29 low yesterday, I made it up to a breezy 39 as a high. It's currently 28 and clear with dp 20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Let me posit something - and it is related to the deep dive you recall I did of the Coatesville observer W.T. Gordon. Oddly enough I just never knew there were steel plants just outside of Philly in Coatesville because so much focus was always put on U.S. Steel in Pittsburgh and Bethlehem Steel up in the ABE area. I should have probably known better given we had the big Budd plant here in the city cranking out steel parts for cars, planes, and for what was more talked about when I was growing up - trains. When you look at your gathered temp rises and falls, you'll see that interestingly enough, they correspond with a build up leading to a peak right during the main part of WW2. The Coatesville plant was apparently making rolled steel plates where there was mention in an article I just read, would eventually be used in shipbuilding. Of course we had the Navy Yard here down in South Philly with a massive amount of shipbuilding going on all during that period. I.e., all the "Rosie the Riveters". I even had one of my aunts and her friends who briefly worked down at the Navy Yard during that period in the '40s. Once the war was over, boom! All that heavy manufacturing dropped off precipitously and eventually switched to a different type manufacturing output - homes and suburban "office parks"! And as the suburban developments expanded, someone "paved paradise and put up a parking lot" creating some mini-heat islands where they didn't exist before. This was all the post-WWII migration from the cities to the rim counties and eventually into what was dubbed "ex-burbia" (the more rural farm areas). With the recognition of that impact, you have more environmental awareness now and all those undeveloped and former rural farming areas stripped for development, have been slowly replanted, and that has helped to mitigate what was overall warming trend in that area's microclimate. In any case, as my obs - after a 29 low yesterday, I made it up to a breezy 39 as a high. It's currently 28 and clear with dp 20. Great info!! It looks like they reached their peak steel production in 1953. They are still in production today - even making some of the steel for the new WTC in NYC! An interesting idea - and no doubt it may have contributed a bit to the warming...but since the same pattern of cyclical warming and then cooling was seen at all of the other Chester County observation locales in West Chester, Phoenixville and Devault during that 1930's through early 1950's time frame. It provides some additional support for the observations at all the chesco spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Great info!! It looks like they reached their peak steel production in 1953. They are still in production today - even making some of the steel for the new WTC in NYC! An interesting idea - and no doubt it may have contributed a bit to the warming...but since the same pattern of cyclical warming and then cooling was seen at all of the other Chester County observation locales in West Chester, Phoenixville and Devault during that 1930's through early 1950's time frame. It provides some additional support for the observations at all the chesco spots. The Korean War (UN police action) Armistice Treaty was finally signed in 1953, so they still had that need! I grew up hearing about the "rolling hills of Chester County" yet you had "rolling steel" there too, with plants that had popped up along the rivers and creeks for over a century and a half. Another interesting article on that steel plant in Coatesville. And IIRC, W.T. Gordon's son worked at that plant back in the late 1800s/early 1900s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Our stretch of chilly weather looks to continue for most of the remainder of 2022. In fact December looks likely to finish as our coldest December since at least 2017 and possibly the coldest since 2010! Dry weather should continue before snow arrives on Thursday morning before quickly changing to rain. A strong arctic cold front will sweep through from west to east on Friday afternoon dropping temps from the 50's at 1pm to below freezing by 8pm. High temperatures on Christmas Eve day and Christmas Day may struggle to reach the low to mid 20's. The record high for today is 62 degrees set in 1929. The record low is 1 above zero from 1951. The daily rain record is the 1.30" that fell in 1934. Our daily snow record I remember well as 15" of snow fell today back in 2009. It started at 5am and was over by 10pm. There was still 4" of snow on the ground on Christmas morning which was our next to last White Christmas - with our last such one 10 years ago in 2012 when we had 2" of snow on the ground that fell on Christmas Eve 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Based on the current forecast it appears likely this will be a top 10 coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in Chester County PA history with data back to 1894. If the current forecast verifies it would be the 9th coldest Christmas Eve and the 6th Coldest Christmas Day. See the Top 20 coldest for each day below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: Great info!! It looks like they reached their peak steel production in 1953. They are still in production today - even making some of the steel for the new WTC in NYC! An interesting idea - and no doubt it may have contributed a bit to the warming...but since the same pattern of cyclical warming and then cooling was seen at all of the other Chester County observation locales in West Chester, Phoenixville and Devault during that 1930's through early 1950's time frame. It provides some additional support for the observations at all the chesco spots. We've been over this a million times. When properly adjusted for measurement method changes over the years, the Chesco coop data shows warming. West Chester as an example below (this site only has plots through 2013), note the multiple station changes. After 1970 the data doesn't need much adjustment. This is also the period of strongest warming. Coatesville, ENantmeal, and phl below. The "heat island" hasn't missed Chesco Finally NOAA's long term temperature trend for Chesco, using all the local temperature measurements. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 based on the current short range models, I would expect nothing less than a flash freeze event Friday night and a dusting of snow (2" or less). All I can say is the NWS better play up the flash freeze event and start issuing warnings in their hazardous outlook Thursday night for our area. This rare event is far more dangerous to the traveler than any heavy snow event. I would ask that the NWS work with closely with PADOT in issuing a flash freeze warning for this event, especially on their SMART signs. Too many travelers on Friday night will be in the ditches and will be auto wreck central. I expect I-78 , I-80, I_81 and even RT 22, Rt 222, Rt 309 ,Rt 422 to be a complete disaster. You cannot sufficiently brine the roads in these rainy conditions nor can you salt in time to stop the water from freezing on all road surfaces with the temps dropping into the teens. Salt does not work effectively in temps below 25 degrees. All I can say is the only thing that maybe white this Christmas in our area will be the cars from the huge amount of salt being place on the roads. Car washes will be running full speed on Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The 40-45 mph winds should help dry things up a bit before the artic front passes. I hope anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 53 minutes ago, chubbs said: We've been over this a million times. When properly adjusted for measurement method changes over the years, the Chesco coop data shows warming. West Chester as an example below (this site only has plots through 2013), note the multiple station changes. After 1970 the data doesn't need much adjustment. This is also the period of strongest warming. Coatesville, ENantmeal, and phl below. The "heat island" hasn't missed Chesco Finally NOAA's long term temperature trend for Chesco, using all the local temperature measurements. Again for the millionth time - my data is pure and not adjusted raw data. It clearly does not show what your post adjusted multiple site combined data above shows. As it shows in my data shared earlier in this thread there is a clear up and down and up and down pattern to all sites - it is not that complicated!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 To put a fine point on Charlie's (Chubbs) post above. Below is a simple chart showing average actual (non-adjusted) temperature trends comparing PHL Airport (Green) vs. Phoenixville (Blue) / Glenmoore (Orange) and Coatesville Chesco (Red) from 1940 through today. The calculated trend lines very clearly show the PHL Airport trend is rapidly rising while the others show much more stable trends with slight rises at both Phoenixville and Coatesville but cooling trends shown by the Glenmoore NWS COOP observer. In fact with just 12 days remaining in 2022 both Glenmoore and Coatesville will finish between 0.5 and 1.0 degrees colder than 2021. Of course the PHL Airport is on pace to finish at greater than 1 degree warmer than 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Another forecast mostly sunny day that is overcast. Staying below freezing as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Yep. Stuff/clouds overcast to the west w/broken down Fords...digit it. I'm kinda happy...Birds in 1st, cold, hell yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 It's not like it's close as the entire northeast is decked in with clouds, aiming for the broad side of the barn and hitting the mailbox 3 acres away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 If it isn’t going to snow, I’d rather it be 60 degrees. Cold and dry sucks balls. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Today was our 1st day this season that the high temperature failed to rise above freezing. The last time we failed to pass the freezing mark for a high temperature was on March 28th. That was also the latest sub freezing day in Chester County history with records back to 1894. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Seasonal totals thus far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Tomorrow's forecast is sunny i be watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, Newman said: Seasonal totals thus far Talk about a downer, checkout that screw zone for the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Upper Bucks is tied with Boston in the snow contest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 27 minutes ago, Newman said: Seasonal totals thus far Great map for helping me decide where to retire. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 hours ago, JTA66 said: Great map for helping me decide where to retire. North Central Oneida county...NY. Tughill Plateau region. Redfield NY also nice. LES belt....of course many says that is "fake snow" but if I'm cashing in hundreds of inches each year, sign me up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: North Central Oneida county...NY. Tughill Plateau region. Redfield NY also nice. LES belt....of course many says that is "fake snow" but if I'm cashing in hundreds of inches each year, sign me up. Watertown also 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Dry and seasonable weather will continue for Christmas Week before a stormy Thursday into Friday for Chester County PA. The storm continues to look like mainly rain after a brief start as snow or sleet. A powerful cold front will sweep across the county from west to east during the late morning hours on Friday. Most models are now showing some minor <1"of snow accumulations before the snow ends on Friday PM. A top 10 coldest Christmas holiday remains probable for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 If you want to see what a festivus miracle can look like - the always reliable 84 hour NAM delivers a plowable snow for the western burbs of Philly on Friday!! Lock it in!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 29 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: If you want to see what a festivus miracle can look like - the always reliable 84 hour NAM delivers a plowable snow for the western burbs of Philly on Friday!! Lock it in!! Am I reading the 6Z Euro correctly that they agree? Could be a plowable salt event by the time it's over. Car wash gift cards for Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now