RedSky Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 0z ECM is a powderkeg holy crap! Still can't believe what it saw in that run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I’ll ride the hrrr/gfs for this storm fellas . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: 0z ECM is a powderkeg holy crap! Still can't believe what it saw in that run lol. Better start believing sir. The snow means on the ens are awesome given the range still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Oz models across the board made significant improvements for the Dec 22-23 system. Still have a ways to go....too long if you ask me, but we have a unanimous signal for a potential storm across all guidance now...thats what we should be focused on at this point. Sharing these from another sub...thanks @Weather Will 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, anthonyweather said: I’ll ride the hrrr/gfs for this storm fellas . Its hard to ignore this pretty accurate short range model. Notice that South Mtn plays the important demarcation line of who actually gets the snow. While the snow amounts appear high, it has the right idea with my thoughts about the dynamic cooling idea and the physical geography. If this indeed unfolds, many amateur mets will call this event an "overperformer" I call it normal. A WSW should be issued for the LV north if the next three hourly runs hold up to this same scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I created an OBS thread for the event - We are starting out at or slightly below freezing IMBY, which is actually a bit "warmer" than the past couple mornings (some due to the cloud deck vs previous mornings). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Don't know if I need stronger coffee but it looks like the 6z GFS just made a slider out of the 12/23 storm (suppression?) and now it is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 6z GFS has some token stuff on the ground in Philly metro (I think the NBM is discounting this run at the moment). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Don't know if I need stronger coffee but it looks like the 6z GFS just made a slider out of the 12/23 storm (suppression?) and now it is OTS. Well, it did the exact thing at this exact range with today's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Oz models across the board made significant improvements for the Dec 22-23 system. Still have a ways to go....too long if you ask me, but we have a unanimous signal for a potential storm across all guidance now...thats what we should be focused on at this point. Sharing these from another sub...thanks @Weather Will Well said at this point I would just Ride the ensembles till at least maybe 12 Z on Sunday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Remember the GFS is famous for suppression of east coast snow events...often up till 3 days before the event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I pretty much ignore all OP runs until 5 days out, that's around the time frame they start showing run to run consistency, over that I take a look at the 500 MB charts on the ensembles and the 06Z GEFS 500 MB is HONKING for a potential SECS. Much better ridge placement out west from yesterday as well. 00z EPS looks good too but I think we'd want that ridge slight further E like the GEFS. Regardless, that pattern is one we can score a big dog with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 As I recall the old rule of thumb is ideally we want the ridge axis over Boise, ID. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 42 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I pretty much ignore all OP runs until 5 days out, that's around the time frame they start showing run to run consistency, over that I take a look at the 500 MB charts on the ensembles and the 06Z GEFS 500 MB is HONKING for a potential SECS. Much better ridge placement out west from yesterday as well. 00z EPS looks good too but I think we'd want that ridge slight further E like the GEFS. Regardless, that pattern is one we can score a big dog with. 6z eps pna ridge improved leading in fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Don't know if I need stronger coffee but it looks like the 6z GFS just made a slider out of the 12/23 storm (suppression?) and now it is OTS. Its right where we want it at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Locked in to this next one. Should be a fun week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 GFS with a bomb incoming 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Closed low opens up and just squeaks by to our SE that it's mainly a coastal bomb. It was so close to being a widespread MECS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Christmas Eve with blue over us, can’t ask for more at this stage. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Suspect many on this forum would sign up for the 12z GFS if you wish for our 1st White Christmas in 10 years 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Ridge out west sharpened dramtically. Meanwhile CMC looks like its lost aloft. Didnt even bother looking at the surface. GFS op jet structure couldnt get much more classic tbh and yes....that IS where we want it right now...no cutter look please: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Christmas Eve with blue over us, can’t ask for more at this stage. If only the Birds were playing Dallas, that would be great... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Christmas Day wind chills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 You can see why the GFS made the change at the surface from 6z. Just look at how much sharper the PNA ridge becomes at 12z vs 6z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: If only the Birds were playing Dallas 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: If only the Birds were playing Dallas, that would be great... If only it was in Philly BUT...Jan 1996 they played in Dallas also. Hmmmm, interesting coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You can see why the GFS made the change at the surface from 6z. Just look at how much sharper the PNA ridge becomes at 12z vs 6z: It really does seem like the PNA getting that right is one of the most important ingredients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Alright, wheres Red Sky to let us know how this isnt happening and nothing looks remotely good whatsoever? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 that 12z GFS run is a weenie run of the season so far Back to back SECS 3 days apart. Jan/Feb could be an all out torch and I'd be satisfied with winter if that solution comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Im deceased....back to back MECS+ on the gfs. But christmas day is dryish at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Alright, wheres Red Sky to let us know how this isnt happening and nothing looks remotely good whatsoever? Ukmet is a plugged in toaster bath Of course the .50" outside looks nothing like the 5" it gave me today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now