E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread

[Hurricane Agnes]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fix the Flux capacitor and set the date to january 1996

At least that was a rare powdery snow (temp was in the low 20s where I was much of the event) and when I made it out to start digging the car out, because of where I had parked it in my apt. complex lot, the only place on it with snow was the front bumper.  No joke.  The rest had been blown off by the wind and the car had been mostly protected by the building too.  Still had to trudge down the middle of the street to walk to the supermarket with one of those grocery carts to get the usual milk and bread that I previously laughed at people buying beforehand (on my birthday even, as the storm had just ended and the sun came out) and was greeted with 6 ft plowed mounds on both sides of the street and a couple cars stuck after getting stalled and buried on one part of the street. 

[The Iceman]

Not being a downer but I’m not really seeing a great pattern being set up mid month right now at least on the ensembles. Better than the first 2 weeks of Jan? Sure, but that pattern looks pretty marginal mid month as opposed to close the blinds like this week+ as there just isn’t a ton of cold to work with. We are going to need to reload on that front to at least seasonable cold. Also, statistically there has only been 1 Nina at PHL with under 2” in December that finished above normal. Nina’s with under an inch in December, there’s only 2 that finished around normal(18.2” 1999-2000) and 18.3” (2008-09). I don’t think we get skunked this winter completely like 2019-2020 but I still think the scales are leaning towards below normal snowfall at least along 95. 

[Heisy]

Honestly I would roll the dice with the pattern we saw earlier this month vs what I see on ensembles now. Obviously we need to fix the PAC and somehow get a a 50/50 to setup at some point. Ralph, we’ve been in this hobby for a long time. Patience is what makes snowstorms great. When we finally get a big storm here, and it will happen one day, the payoff will be great. I think by Jan 15-20 if we’re not tracking something in the medium range by then I’d start get worried.

OT: I moved to Bensalem last April, right near where the tornado hit a few years back. I have a nice overhang open porch in front of my place. Can’t wait to experience a snowstorm here.


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[Ralph Wiggum]

56 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Honestly I would roll the dice with the pattern we saw earlier this month vs what I see on ensembles now. Obviously we need to fix the PAC and somehow get a a 50/50 to setup at some point. Ralph, we’ve been in this hobby for a long time. Patience is what makes snowstorms great. When we finally get a big storm here, and it will happen one day, the payoff will be great. I think by Jan 15-20 if we’re not tracking something in the medium range by then I’d start get worried.

OT: I moved to Bensalem last April, right near where the tornado hit a few years back. I have a nice overhang open porch in front of my place. Can’t wait to experience a snowstorm here.


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Wrt Jan 15-20  and tracking mid range. I guess that depends on what your expectations are? I would like to be tracking legit by then as well, and I honestly think something may pop before then. But even if not, we've seen plenty of Febs save a crud early winter and even more recently we've had a few really solid snow events in March. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

A LOL @ this (going from record lows climo section to record highs climo section) -

Quote

&&

.CLIMATE...
Unseasonable warmth may greet the region for the start of the
new year. Here are the record highs for New Year`s Day:

Site   Record high   Record warm low
PHL    64 in 2005     51 in 2022
ABE    62 in 2005     48 in 2022
ILG    65 in 2005     49 in 2022
RDG    64 in 1973     50 in 2022
TTN    64 in 2005     52 in 1966
ACY    66 in 2005     50 in 2022
55N    66 in 2005     50 in 1966
GED    68 in 2022     58 in 1973
MPO    60 in 1966     46 in 1966

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MPS/Staarmann
MARINE...MPS/Staarmann
CLIMATE...

I did make it up to 46 as a high yesterday and possibly have a low this morning of 28 as it's currently 29 with dp 25.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Wiggum Rule watch....Jan 4:

 

Jan 7....flakes:

 

Pattern continues to develop into a more favorable PAC and mid month forward holds some hope for you very patient snow-starved weenies.

[Kevin Reilly]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wiggum Rule watch....Jan 4:

 

Jan 7....flakes:

 

Pattern continues to develop into a more favorable PAC and mid month forward holds some hope for you very patient snow-starved weenies.

This rule of warm followed by snow is very true in February and March.  I'd like to call it the Baroclinic Zone Rule.  Keep on shoving the Baroclinic Zone east and southeast you are bound to hit kind of like playing the lottery. Oh, yes and I will take my chances. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

44 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This rule of warm followed by snow is very true in February and March.  I'd like to call it the Baroclinic Zone Rule.  Keep on shoving the Baroclinic Zone east and southeast you are bound to hit kind of like playing the lottery. Oh, yes and I will take my chances. 

Not really a true baroclinic zone nudge. My research shows more of a rubber band snap effect wrt deep winter full lat ridges and subsequent polar fropa within 5 days thereafter. In my studies when you loop the hemispheric h5 charts and focus on the West, it often resembles a rubber band snapping. I posted my studies here years ago and ppl started referring to it as the Wiggum Rule. When I submit my papers to the AMS I am going to ask if they can keep that name. Not sure if copyright issues would allow for it tho.

[Duca892]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wiggum Rule watch....Jan 4:

 

Jan 7....flakes:

 

Pattern continues to develop into a more favorable PAC and mid month forward holds some hope for you very patient snow-starved weenies.

I swear this is the first time the GFS has shown anything even remotely close for the area in like a week.. I’ll take it 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I swear this is the first time the GFS has shown anything even remotely close for the area in like a week.. I’ll take it 

I honestly don't think we see much of anything...some flakes maybe. No real support on the ens. The premise of my post was more to show the roller coaster with us possibly touching 60 then flakes a few days later.

Eta: Euro has the temp swing and flakes as well. I just think the effect is pretty neat and somewhat predictable

[Ralph Wiggum]

Still like to see antecedent cold air mass in place prior to talking any discreet threat, and I know it's the Volvo of computer models, but heck, gotta love that big 1041hp with a banana signal anchored over SE Canada and the CAD signature on the 12z ICON:

It's a small window, common in a Nina....and definitely a thread the needle situation but heck, nothing else to track attm besides AN temps in the short term. 

[ChescoWx]

A beautiful and mild next couple of days with temps over 10 degrees above normal in the low 50's. By the middle of next week we may see high temps in the lower 60's. There will be rain chances both Saturday and again in the Tuesday - Wednesday period. By the end of next week temps look to cool to closer to normal. There are even some models hinting at an east coast storm that depending on the track could give some snow here in the Northeast US.

The record high for today is 73 degrees from 1984. The record low is minus 2 degrees from 1917. Daily rain record is the 3.48" in 1901. The record daily snow was the 4.7" that fell today in 1935.

[RedSky]

Snow in Kuwait, add that to Miami. Like the Wiggum rule there is another one that says when we are down and out with snow nature has to kick us in the nuts watching tropical climates get white.

 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

43 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Snow in Kuwait, add that to Miami. Like the Wiggum rule there is another one that says when we are down and out with snow nature has to kick us in the nuts watching tropical climates get white.

 

 

Jerusalem and Egypt is next 

[RedSky]

One last patch of crusted snow hiding in the shade here as it feels like late March

[The Iceman]

long range on the GEFS and EPS look awful. Ridge reloads after the 6-9th and we torch again. So one thread the needle event(90% fail) then more torching. Still time for changes but the magic pattern flip at mid month is looking to be in trouble...

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, RedSky said:

One last patch of crusted snow hiding in the shade here as it feels like late March

December is the new Msrch and vice-versa 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, The Iceman said:

long range on the GEFS and EPS look awful. Ridge reloads after the 6-9th and we torch again. So one thread the needle event(90% fail) then more torching. Still time for changes but the magic pattern flip at mid month is looking to be in trouble...

I don't think u r looking at recent GEFS. Haven't seen the eps they have been putrid anyway. Clear your cache.

[Ralph Wiggum]

In lieu of time restraints I can't repost the disco of mine from the Mid Atl thread. You should take a look. Progressing exactly as most have been stating....as long as not a head fake of course. Not sure how you can look at this and say pattern is crap:

CPF even evident. Cmon man, you're better. 

[The Iceman]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I don't think u r looking at recent GEFS. Haven't seen the eps they have been putrid anyway. Clear your cache.

Looks great:

 

[The Iceman]

500 MB isn't going to save us from the continent being flooded with PAC air

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looks great:

 

Again, you r better. You r basing your "pattern is reloading to crap" based on temp anomalies? Seriously ?

It's one thing to be pessimistic. Heck we just had record breaking AO and zero to show.  But there is no way in hell you look at that 500mb ens mean and suggest it is crud or shut the blinds. Absolutely not.

Again tho, let's hope it isn't a head fake and let's get past this relax stretch. Enjoy the weather, it is beautiful out.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

500 MB isn't going to save us from the continent being flooded with PAC air

 

 

As Ryan says and agrees with my thinking....2 weeks of threading the needle until we enter a more favorable PAC and HL look. Gotta get past this. If we get tomid Jan and we have kicked the can and nothing on the horizon then I will start to worry. I see no reason to cancel January at this point.

[RedSky]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

In lieu of time restraints I can't repost the disco of mine from the Mid Atl thread. You should take a look. Progressing exactly as most have been stating....as long as not a head fake of course. Not sure how you can look at this and say pattern is crap:

CPF even evident. Cmon man, you're better. 

That is not a great look with the Pacific flooding North America, best you can do with that is a thread the needle or mixed event with Polar Pacific origin air masses.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, RedSky said:

That is not a great look with the Pacific flooding North America, best you can do with that is a thread the needle or mixed event with Polar Pacific origin air masses.

It is a cross polar flow into the central US directed by the epo ridge which again is a good look. Damn, you guys are frustrating today. You have your take on post Jan 11 I have mine. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

That is not a great look with the Pacific flooding North America, best you can do with that is a thread the needle or mixed event with Polar Pacific origin air masses.

You should move to Kuwait 

[RedSky]

It's decent for Canada and northern New England, we 33F and rain lol.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's decent for Canada and northern New England, we 33F and rain lol.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You should move to Kuwait 

I will even pay for the flight

[RedSky]

 Have a drink Ralph you still have all of February and March man.

 

 

[RedSky]

and possibly April