Newman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 6:42 PM, RedSky said: The 23rd yesterday was a whiteout blizzard in the 20's, today it's Jimmy Buffet boiling shrimp tickling 60F Expand Look at this 24 hour change, incredible 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 My positive take away is the Euro says it won't be raining on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day...so we got that going for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 King GFS is going to rule the day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 F@%! the Euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Gone need to revisit the old hobby building model battle ships again like in the 70's only this time with Southern Comfort! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 7:02 PM, RedSky said: Gone need to revisit the old hobby building model battle ships again like in the 70's only this time with Southern Comfort! Expand This is the only hobby I’m aware of that you have to approach expecting failure. What sort of morons would sign up for that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 GFS Vs ICON/UKIE/EURO/CMC/JMA I'm not so sure I want to see how this ends. Where's @Birds~69 to tell us to bet the big odds and take the underdog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 7:27 PM, JTA66 said: This is the only hobby I’m aware of that you have to approach expecting failure. What sort of morons would sign up for that?? Expand 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 EPS is a disaster. A December to remember for sure. If we waste record shattering -AO, a legit month-long -NAO and we end with nothing to show it would be extremely disappointing. This season is going to require more patience than even I had originally planned on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Christmas cutter never fails. Every f**king year. No matter how good the pattern is. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 3:58 PM, Newman said: -2 in Altoona and a balmy 58 in Philadelphia Expand LOL Tornado weather! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 FWIW, the NAM long range at hour 84 looks more like the GFS with the ejection of the PV into SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 9:12 PM, Newman said: FWIW, the NAM long range at hour 84 looks more like the GFS with the ejection of the PV into SE Canada Expand I thought just the opposite. Flatter with the ridge out West and tighter energy in W Canada...less escaping out in front towards 50/50. More ridging in the east connecting to the nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 9:16 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: I thought just the opposite. Flatter with the ridge out West and tighter energy in W Canada...less escaping out in front towards 50/50. More ridging in the east connecting to the nao Expand Nevermind, I was comparing to the wrong thing. Yes, it looks gfs-ish at 78. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 GFS not blinking, gonna be a hit or at least off the coast this run again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 10:07 PM, Newman said: GFS not blinking, gonna be a hit or at least off the coast this run again Expand Looks like it is amping up too far West but whatever. I like the general idea thru 120 of sending a piece of the tpv out towards the 50/50 which is what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 10:15 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like it is amping up too far West but whatever. I like the general idea thru 120 of sending a piece of the tpv out towards the 50/50 which is what we want. Expand Yeah early on it looked like it held serve, but the ridge out west shifted further west so it's amping up too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 10:16 PM, Newman said: Yeah early on it looked like it held serve, but the ridge out west shifted further west so it's amping up too soon. Expand Yep, made a small move towards the other globals evident from. 120 on. The bleeding continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Le sigh. Bomb off the coast to rain. At least a storm is still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Gotta hand it to Red Sky albeit maybe a bit premature still. Usually cant go wrong siding with the least snowiest solutions. The real kick in the junk is how once again we have all tellies lining up and may still end up with a rain storm. The times/clime have really changed...there is no getting past that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Be back for 0z when the models come east Ciao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 10:25 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Gotta hand it to Red Sky albeit maybe a bit premature still. Usually cant go wrong siding with the least snowiest solutions. The real kick in the junk is how once again we have all tellies lining up and may still end up with a rain storm. The times/clime have really changed...there is no getting past that. Expand Meh that was three days ago, hard to break an engrained cutter pattern many thought blocking would succeed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 And we’re battling a background Niña state, ideal for SER and lows tracking to our west, so we have our work cutout for us this year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 We were stupid to think it could snow heavy in December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 10:25 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Gotta hand it to Red Sky albeit maybe a bit premature still. Usually cant go wrong siding with the least snowiest solutions. The real kick in the junk is how once again we have all tellies lining up and may still end up with a rain storm. The times/clime have really changed...there is no getting past that. Expand climate has of course not changed....climate cycles change and we have gone from a cold to a warmer and now I suspect we are trending into another colder cycle. We have been in a much snowier cycle during the last 2 decades....it will return again. Patience! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Ironically, the gefs are slightly improved if not a decent bit better especially wrt mean lp and mean snow amounts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 11:16 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Ironically, the gefs are slightly improved if not a decent bit better especially wrt mean lp and mean snow amounts. Expand Interesting. Yes, the GFS showed rain, but its evolution was still different than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 This is a good start to the 0z suite. Grasping here, but the ICON is drastically improved 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 GFS coming in with lots of changes. I won't speak to what the outcome is gonna be, but i think it'll be more positive for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 GFS has Jan 25, 2000 vibes with the frontrunner off the SE Coast. It has been trending slower. Have a hunch this morphs into one single entity that is a more organized and slower final system as the se coast energy waits for the upper level support to ignite the powder keg. Lake Superior solutions non existent at 0z thus far. Eta: nm....cmc just said hold my beer....hammers Lake Superior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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