Hurricane Agnes Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 NBM splits the difference and suggests almost (but not quite) Warning level amounts for Philly metro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Im deceased....back to back MECS+ on the gfs. But christmas day is dryish at least 2 MECS and 6" combined for my yard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Considering even with the new code the GFS has already showed it still has a SE bias with coastal's this is a good spot to be in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Hey let's speculate using snow maps for a fantasy storm 8 days from now when Williamsport is being downgraded to 3" from a storm that was forecast to dump 12" aye caramba! interior PA bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You can see why the GFS made the change at the surface from 6z. Just look at how much sharper the PNA ridge becomes at 12z vs 6z: GEFS also sharper with the trough out west That is going to be one of the key players for this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 There are some huge indi GEFS members this run. Some faster on the 23rd, some slower on the 24th. Multiple hits, and the lean right now would be a SE scraper, not NW and a cutter. The mean 8 days out is an advisory, borderline warning level, snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 33 minutes ago, Newman said: There are some huge indi GEFS members this run. Some faster on the 23rd, some slower on the 24th. Multiple hits, and the lean right now would be a SE scraper, not NW and a cutter. The mean 8 days out is an advisory, borderline warning level, snowstorm Again, another nice ens means snowfall map. GEFS joined the eps in that regard. Lonnnggg ways to go but at this range, all the pieces we want to see coming together seem to be as opposed to going the wrong way. By saturday night/sunday we should start to see things narrow to 2 distinct camps or so. For now, enjoy the tracking and dont get too locked in to any one scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looks like the Canadian bombs it out but still south/east. Waiting for the Euro to get to those hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Euro is a solid hit for all but the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Euro is soooo close. Verbatim still gives the entire area light snows, but we're talking miles and it could've been another bomb. This 500 look is out of the NESIS textbook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Getting a steady fall of parachutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Only two 6" snows in my lifetime within 72hrs of Christmas day, 2002 and boxing day both 6". That's 3^ Anything bigger would be the trophy of a lifetime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12z EC Christmas Day look - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Happy Hour GFS with a nuke! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Holy Mary mother of god… the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 GFS says everybody wins! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Quiet in here. Either everyone is out shoveling their rain or still passed out after that GFS run. Only 30 or so more model cycles to go…keep the faith! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 49 minutes ago, Newman said: Happy Hour GFS with a nuke! Funny thing is that is not even well-timed wrt the phasing....happens just a hair too late to nail us yet we still get 10"+.....nice potential there for something for sure. Im thinking White Christmas odds are quickly rising near 50% now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Made a post elsewhere...this is becoming a potential where we whiten the ground even with a poorly timed setup like we are seeing. Im not going to say it cant fail, but almost every model has now shown solutions at h5 that look fail-ish yet it still snows on those progs. We are seeing a good bit of wiggle room. And as someone else mentioned we dont need a HECS. Im quite content with a ground whitener for the 24th-25th holiday anything more is an absolute bonus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Made a post elsewhere...this is becoming a potential where we whiten the ground even with a poorly timed setup like we are seeing. Im not going to say it cant fail, but almost every model has now shown solutions at h5 that look fail-ish yet it still snows on those progs. We are seeing a good bit of wiggle room. And as someone else mentioned we dont need a HECS. Im quite content with a ground whitener for the 24th-25th holiday anything more is an absolute bonus It's MECS or HECS now or bust dude the train has left the station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Made a post elsewhere...this is becoming a potential where we whiten the ground even with a poorly timed setup like we are seeing. Im not going to say it cant fail, but almost every model has now shown solutions at h5 that look fail-ish yet it still snows on those progs. We are seeing a good bit of wiggle room. And as someone else mentioned we dont need a HECS. Im quite content with a ground whitener for the 24th-25th holiday anything more is an absolute bonus From your lips to Gods ears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 A hemispheric monster chance with this timing is never happening again in anybody here's lifetime 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Funny thing is that is not even well-timed wrt the phasing....happens just a hair too late to nail us yet we still get 10"+.....nice potential there for something for sure. I'm thinking White Christmas odds are quickly rising near 50% now. Agree, the timing was off and we still got widespread 6+". The ceiling is without a doubt 12"+ widespread, but guidance showing warning level snows even with the pieces sloppy is encouraging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's MECS or HECS now or bust dude the train has left the station I've always been a HECS or bust type of person when the ingredients are all on the table. A sneaky 2-4" event two days before? Definitely welcomed. A big dog being progged days to weeks out? Yep, give me the big thing. I will of course take anything for a White Christmas, but I will be chasing this thing for big one potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I expect the hype hitting social media and CNN to be off the hook, like aliens landed on Trumps ass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 18 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's MECS or HECS now or bust dude the train has left the station I respectfully disagree. There is still a fairly broad range of solutions that 95% of them whiten the ground whether that be a coating up to 34" on some individual ens members. Im not greedy when it comes to snow. Would love a HECS but I just want to get on the board for now tbh and a white ground for Christmas weekend is beyond just a win. If you are locked in for a MECS/HECS more power to ya. Just 18 hours ago you were telling us how this has almost zero potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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