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New England snowfall predictions

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
On 12/2/2022 at 10:53 AM, Ginx snewx said:

In 2017/2018 I ran a for fun snowfall contest. Late this year but most have had very little. Feel free to add yours. Will be tabulated after the annual last April storm. For fun not  competition My guesses

 
ORH 91
BOS 59
PVD 44
BDL 66.
BDR 45
PSF 77
ALB 77.
BVT 87
CON 89
PORTLAND                     79
CAR 132
KGINX 77
KRAY 79
KDIT 83
HUBB 90.
DXR 55.
NYC 40
TAN 55
GON 46
AUG 97.
DRYSLOT 87
MITCH HOUSE 155.0
   

ORH 81"

Bos 46"

PVD 38"

BDL 55"

BDR 43"

PSF 85"

ALB 80"

BVT 94"

CON 86"

PORTLAND 89"

CAR 117"

GINXY 64"

KRAY 66"

KDIT 60"

HUBB 88"

DXR 53"

NYC 31"

TAN 44"

GON 37"

AUG 95"

DRYSLOT 92"

MITCH HOUSE 117"

 

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
On 12/2/2022 at 1:03 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

ORH - 59

BDL - 39

PVD - 33

BOS- 41

GINX - 45

KTOL - 54

BDR - 29

SWEY- 35

KGAY - 49

HUNCH - 63

CON - 52

DSLOT- 64

 

I went low and had a feeling I was still likely going to be too high. Now I wish I had gone with gut instead of getting caught up on the “promising modeled pattern”

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Buffalo’s record lowest snowfall is 199” in 1976-77? Am I misreading something? The other numbers seem right. 

Since Buffalo is in their top 5 highest snowfall ever this season, it seems they chose to include their highest snowfall instead of lowest snowfall. Their rank for Buffalo also reflects the highest and instead of lowest. It's the only one on the list like that, see the footnote on the bottom left. 

It doesn't make sense to have Buffalo ranked the same way as the rest since it's one of their snowiest winters ever. But the rank for the "least snowiest" would be #136 and 1918-1919 25.0" for the record. 

There is a typo on there though somewhere else ;)

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
On 12/2/2022 at 1:01 PM, BuildingScienceWx said:

Thanks for putting this together Steve, I'll play:

 

ORH   82"

BOS   53"

PVD   42"

BDL   66"

BDR   40"

PSF   84"

ALB   72"

BTV   80"

CON  72"

PORTLAND 64"

CAR   110"

KGINX   58" (You're house?)

KRAY   0" (Bolivia?)

KDIT   70" (The crazy man on the hill?)

HUBB   78" (Porn?)

DXR   68"

NYC   42"

TAN   45"

GON   32"

AUG   82"

DRYSLOT   75"

MITCH HOUSE   148"
 

:facepalm: Lord knows what i'd do for those numbers

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
On 12/2/2022 at 12:26 PM, SJonesWX said:

BOS 60" - Epic fail

MHT 70" - closer, but still a fail

CON 80" - even closer, but still a fail

don't care enough about other areas to make a guess, but Ray will get more than DIT- Nailed it!

1 out of 4 ain't bad

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Did some number noodling to compare accuracy of the predictions.  DIT only guessed for 9 sites, so I used those sites to compare.  There were 8 others who made predictions for the 9 sites, though all 8 also made other predictions.  The average prediction of the 9 was 61.9" and the actual total was 33.7".  Thus, the average prediction was 184% of the actual.  DIT's predictions averaged 46.2", closest to the actual at 137%.  Next closest was 151% and the rest were at 171% to 228% of the actual.
DIT predicted only one NNE site, Dryslot, who finished at 86.3".  Average prediction was 83.7", or 97% of the actual, and ranged from 64" (DIT) to 101".  Ginx gets the blue ribbon for his 87", only 0.7" off the actual.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
On 12/2/2022 at 5:09 PM, weathafella said:

 

 
ORH 94
BOS 63
PVD 59
BDL 71
BDR 48
PSF 80
ALB 69.
BVT 96
CON 93
PORTLAND                     90
CAR 142
KGINX 81
KRAY 89
KDIT 83
HUBB 90.
DXR 57.
NYC 44
TAN 58
GON 40
AUG 99.
DRYSLOT 101
MITCH HOUSE 177
   

Go big or go home.  

I should have gone home…

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
On 5/17/2023 at 9:44 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would say "D" for my area and maybe C- up near MHT.

D for temps here with the mega-Grinch on 12/23, but no long thaws nor record-warm days.
B+ for snow, with AN total and SDDs, 3 storms 10"+ including the 22" dump in mid-Dec.
Normally those grades would average C/C+ but due to the big storm and good retention, I edged the overall grade to B-.  

One of the biggest NNE/SNE discrepancies I've seen; only 2007-08 is competitive, though with all sites N to S getting more that winter than 22-23.

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