Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This was my way of thinking up until a couple of years ago. I got to the point where if it's not going to snow it might as well be enjoyable to be outside.

Some take offense to it being nice outside...not sure why. 

[MAG5035]

MJO has been a fairly big driver in the turnaround to warm the last several days and looks to potentially remain a factor as we get later into the month.

You can see that it entered Phase 4/5 by Dec 22, right when the arctic blast crashed through us… and has spent the last week cycling 5 and 6. Now this teleconnection isn’t instantaneous, but when you consider how strongly correlated to eastern warmth 4-6 are during the winter months.. you can see why our cold snap was cut short when it could have lingered longer without this major reshuffle in the pattern. 

So we’re already into Phase 7 technically, which is a “better” phase… and the pattern responds as such after the Tuesday cutter as we get some Canadian ridging above and knock down the SE ridge.. allowing an attempt at perhaps a more favorable storm track and temps that could still be an issue.. but still doable for snow for us in the right setup. It seems the Jan 6-8 timeframe could present something either in the form of some kind of inverted trough feature with the lingering upper low from the midweek system or maybe a whole other system a couple days later. Hasn’t been much consistency yet on either feature.

MJO forecasts going forward suggest an attempt at getting into phase 8 and maybe 1 and 2 depending on the forecast. I put up the Euro and ensembles for this post, which shows a sluggish move into 8 (GEFS similar) but the extended (monthly) Euro shows a more consise 8-1-2 run as we get from about mid month on. That would be ideal to help set up an eventual return of a widespread below average temp regime to the eastern US, something the ensembles seem to be introducing currently esp beyond D10. In the meantime, we maintain a half decent setup for undercutting storms with higher heights over Canada.. but the potential will get better in time temp wise if/when we get some better support in the Pacific realm (EPO). Right now we’re not really looking at true cold in the pattern initially even with a better looking storm track on our side of the country and a continued mostly -AO. That’s due to the low heights and suppressed jet in the northern Pac keeping an active pattern into the western states, not to mention the aforementioned above normal heights in Canada correlate to significantly above normal temps for that region as well. Once we build some western ridging and ideally reverse the EPO back to negative, we should tap back into a much colder air source. 

Whether or not the MJO does a full blown 8-1-2 run, I’m kind of glad the MJO has gotten this 4-5-6 run out of the way and didn’t stall in those phases in the process. As long as it stays out of there, we’ll have a chance to deliver a favorable pattern for cold and snow. And it appears barring any major changes the next couple weeks that we’ll likely stay out of it for at least most of January. Otherwise, you couple that 4-5-6 with the moderate Nina base state at any point in the next 1.5-2 months and it’ll be more of the kind of weather we’re seeing right now. 

 

[canderson]

Until the pattern has a huge shift we’ll never get real snow outside a weird storm. No more 1-4” clipper systems weekly or other little things that tally up to seasonal total. It’s boom or bust, mostly all bust for the last many years and no end in sight. It is what it is. It’s like a Virginia winter constantly here now. 

[Itstrainingtime]

53 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some take offense to it being nice outside...not sure why. 

I sort of see it...winter weather (cold, wintry precip) only lasts a few months and it can be discouraging to not have winter weather in the winter. Also, it can't snow when the temp is 60 like it could if it was 20. But to your point, 60 degree weather in January was never offensive - I've just moved on from being frustrated to enjoying these days for what they are...nice days.

[Jns2183]

Until the pattern has a huge shift we’ll never get real snow outside a weird storm. No more 1-4” clipper systems weekly or other little things that tally up to seasonal total. It’s boom or bust, mostly all bust for the last many years and no end in sight. It is what it is. It’s like a Virginia winter constantly here now. 

So we are basically stuck in the inverse 1960 decade pattern. We had to pay for that insane decade sooner or latter. Going into the winter of 1960 we had 70 years of records saying 55" is the max snow we see only to be hit with 81" then winter of 69'-70' closes out the decade with 75". At the close of the decade and 80 years of official climate records the 1960's held 6 of the top 11 winter snowfall totals ever as well as top 3 years. As of 2022 the 60's hold #1,4,6 ranks in top 10 winters. Only decade with 3. The 1990s have #2,#3, and 2000's have #8,#9.

Further going back 80 years from end each decade no decade ever accounted for so much as 3 of top 10 winters compared to the 6 the 1960s did. Damn hippies

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I sort of see it...winter weather (cold, wintry precip) only lasts a few months and it can be discouraging to not have winter weather in the winter. Also, it can't snow when the temp is 60 like it could if it was 20. But to your point, 60 degree weather in January was never offensive - I've just moved on from being frustrated to enjoying these days for what they are...nice days.

Also, there is a difference between stating obs and rooting for something.  

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

Until the pattern has a huge shift we’ll never get real snow outside a weird storm. No more 1-4” clipper systems weekly or other little things that tally up to seasonal total. It’s boom or bust, mostly all bust for the last many years and no end in sight. It is what it is. It’s like a Virginia winter constantly here now. 

Our good & great Winters have long breaks.

I could go Winter by Winter to give example after example, but it’s probably no use because some people have no memory or sense of history.
All that matters to some people is what happened 5 minutes ago! History just must have started last year!

[Blizzard of 93]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Also, there is a difference between stating obs and rooting for something.  

I wore shorts today & enjoyed a little time outside. Beautiful day!

I did this while actively tracking the coming pattern change. Winter will soon be back and we will be busy tracking snow!

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

So we are basically stuck in the inverse 1960 decade pattern. We had to pay for that insane decade sooner or latter. Going into the winter of 1960 we had 70 years of records saying 55" is the max snow we see only to be hit with 81" then winter of 69'-70' closes out the decade with 75". At the close of the decade and 80 years of official climate records the 1960's held 6 of the top 11 winter snowfall totals ever as well as top 3 years. As of 2022 the 60's hold #1,4,6 ranks in top 10 winters. Only decade with 3. The 1990s have #2,#3, and 2000's have #8,#9.

Further going back 80 years from end each decade no decade ever accounted for so much as 3 of top 10 winters compared to the 6 the 1960s did. Damn hippies

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks for this post!

Lol, some people on here think that we must have used to get 10 feet of snow every year around here. These same people think it should snow from Halloween to Easter non stop every season…just like the good old days…lol!

[anotherman]

Until the pattern has a huge shift we’ll never get real snow outside a weird storm. No more 1-4” clipper systems weekly or other little things that tally up to seasonal total. It’s boom or bust, mostly all bust for the last many years and no end in sight. It is what it is. It’s like a Virginia winter constantly here now. 

This. Time to accept we are living in different times and lower expectations.

[Blizzard of 93]

11 minutes ago, anotherman said:

This. Time to accept we are living in different times and lower expectations.

Lol….I promise it will snow again.

We are only a few inches below normal snow to date…we can get caught up & then some in a hurry.

I accept that we have some good snow years & some bad snow years & some average snow years….just like we always have….& we always will.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks for this post!

Lol, some people on here think that we must have used to get 10 feet of snow every year around here. These same people think it should snow from Halloween to Easter non stop every season…just like the good old days…lol!

Who in this thread thinks like this? I'm not reading any of that.

My weather memory is pretty good- believe me, I remember some very lean snow years back in the 70s and 80s.

[Blizzard of 93]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Who in this thread thinks like this? I'm not reading any of that.

My weather memory is pretty good- believe me, I remember some very lean snow years back in the 70s and 80s.

Lol…certainly not you…

read a few posts back….

Thanks for pointing out that we have had lean snow years several decades ago. My point is that some people apparently have forgotten and think this is some new phenomenon.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Also, there is a difference between stating obs and rooting for something.  

Well that's very true also.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol…certainly not you…

read a few posts back….

Thanks for pointing out that we have have lean snow years several decades ago. My point is that some people apparently have forgotten and think this is some new phenomenon.

It's not new at all. Not even close.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Well that's very true also.

 I guess sometimes the difference is like trying to straddle both sides of the PICKETT fence.

[Itstrainingtime]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 I guess sometimes the difference is like trying to straddle both sides of the PICKETT fence.

Here you go baiting me again. LOL 

15 yarder against you for taunting!

[Yardstickgozinya]

The first “triple-dip” La Niña (three consecutive years) of the 21st century will continue to affect temperature and precipitation patterns and exacerbate drought and flooding in different parts of the world, according to the World Meteorological Organization

[Bubbler86]

7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Here you go baiting me again. LOL 

15 yarder against you for taunting!

That ball was thrown up for all to catch.  LOL.  Not directed at you.   46 here this Am.

[pasnownut]

14 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

MJO has been a fairly big driver in the turnaround to warm the last several days and looks to potentially remain a factor as we get later into the month.

You can see that it entered Phase 4/5 by Dec 22, right when the arctic blast crashed through us… and has spent the last week cycling 5 and 6. Now this teleconnection isn’t instantaneous, but when you consider how strongly correlated to eastern warmth 4-6 are during the winter months.. you can see why our cold snap was cut short when it could have lingered longer without this major reshuffle in the pattern. 

So we’re already into Phase 7 technically, which is a “better” phase… and the pattern responds as such after the Tuesday cutter as we get some Canadian ridging above and knock down the SE ridge.. allowing an attempt at perhaps a more favorable storm track and temps that could still be an issue.. but still doable for snow for us in the right setup. It seems the Jan 6-8 timeframe could present something either in the form of some kind of inverted trough feature with the lingering upper low from the midweek system or maybe a whole other system a couple days later. Hasn’t been much consistency yet on either feature.

MJO forecasts going forward suggest an attempt at getting into phase 8 and maybe 1 and 2 depending on the forecast. I put up the Euro and ensembles for this post, which shows a sluggish move into 8 (GEFS similar) but the extended (monthly) Euro shows a more consise 8-1-2 run as we get from about mid month on. That would be ideal to help set up an eventual return of a widespread below average temp regime to the eastern US, something the ensembles seem to be introducing currently esp beyond D10. In the meantime, we maintain a half decent setup for undercutting storms with higher heights over Canada.. but the potential will get better in time temp wise if/when we get some better support in the Pacific realm (EPO). Right now we’re not really looking at true cold in the pattern initially even with a better looking storm track on our side of the country and a continued mostly -AO. That’s due to the low heights and suppressed jet in the northern Pac keeping an active pattern into the western states, not to mention the aforementioned above normal heights in Canada correlate to significantly above normal temps for that region as well. Once we build some western ridging and ideally reverse the EPO back to negative, we should tap back into a much colder air source. 

Whether or not the MJO does a full blown 8-1-2 run, I’m kind of glad the MJO has gotten this 4-5-6 run out of the way and didn’t stall in those phases in the process. As long as it stays out of there, we’ll have a chance to deliver a favorable pattern for cold and snow. And it appears barring any major changes the next couple weeks that we’ll likely stay out of it for at least most of January. Otherwise, you couple that 4-5-6 with the moderate Nina base state at any point in the next 1.5-2 months and it’ll be more of the kind of weather we’re seeing right now. 

 

thanks as always Mag.  I'd also add that if you look at other tellies as we approach mid month, AO and NAO look to add credence to you suggested better look as we get beyond first week of Jan.  PNA slightly pos suggests that ridging should be out west, but I'd also think a more flatter look than a big ridge/trough look for the conus. 

We really did miss out on a nice period before the holidays and hoping the luck of 2023 is a bit better for us.  Clock is now tickin....

 

[Bubbler86]

52 and gloomy at Harper's ferry. 

[Itstrainingtime]

21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

52 and gloomy at Harper's ferry. 

48.4 and cloudy here at 12:11pm.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Nanny always taught me a wager against Nina is a torched wager.  Its kinda funny hearing words like fantasy land and weenie on this forum coming from a bunch of weenies also living in  a fantasy land of there own.

[canderson]

The 30% chance of showers has led to three straight hours of rain here. 

[Blizzard of 93]

21 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

MJO has been a fairly big driver in the turnaround to warm the last several days and looks to potentially remain a factor as we get later into the month.

You can see that it entered Phase 4/5 by Dec 22, right when the arctic blast crashed through us… and has spent the last week cycling 5 and 6. Now this teleconnection isn’t instantaneous, but when you consider how strongly correlated to eastern warmth 4-6 are during the winter months.. you can see why our cold snap was cut short when it could have lingered longer without this major reshuffle in the pattern. 

So we’re already into Phase 7 technically, which is a “better” phase… and the pattern responds as such after the Tuesday cutter as we get some Canadian ridging above and knock down the SE ridge.. allowing an attempt at perhaps a more favorable storm track and temps that could still be an issue.. but still doable for snow for us in the right setup. It seems the Jan 6-8 timeframe could present something either in the form of some kind of inverted trough feature with the lingering upper low from the midweek system or maybe a whole other system a couple days later. Hasn’t been much consistency yet on either feature.

MJO forecasts going forward suggest an attempt at getting into phase 8 and maybe 1 and 2 depending on the forecast. I put up the Euro and ensembles for this post, which shows a sluggish move into 8 (GEFS similar) but the extended (monthly) Euro shows a more consise 8-1-2 run as we get from about mid month on. That would be ideal to help set up an eventual return of a widespread below average temp regime to the eastern US, something the ensembles seem to be introducing currently esp beyond D10. In the meantime, we maintain a half decent setup for undercutting storms with higher heights over Canada.. but the potential will get better in time temp wise if/when we get some better support in the Pacific realm (EPO). Right now we’re not really looking at true cold in the pattern initially even with a better looking storm track on our side of the country and a continued mostly -AO. That’s due to the low heights and suppressed jet in the northern Pac keeping an active pattern into the western states, not to mention the aforementioned above normal heights in Canada correlate to significantly above normal temps for that region as well. Once we build some western ridging and ideally reverse the EPO back to negative, we should tap back into a much colder air source. 

Whether or not the MJO does a full blown 8-1-2 run, I’m kind of glad the MJO has gotten this 4-5-6 run out of the way and didn’t stall in those phases in the process. As long as it stays out of there, we’ll have a chance to deliver a favorable pattern for cold and snow. And it appears barring any major changes the next couple weeks that we’ll likely stay out of it for at least most of January. Otherwise, you couple that 4-5-6 with the moderate Nina base state at any point in the next 1.5-2 months and it’ll be more of the kind of weather we’re seeing right now. 

 

A slow move through MJO phase 8 and 1 in the heart of Winter from mid January onward would get this Winter going in the right direction. The GEFS & Euro MJO forecast are both trending in this direction.

[Blizzard of 93]

The ensembles are indicating a very active period coming up starting next week.

I will take my chances with an active pattern in the heart of Winter and hope it’s just cold enough to deliver snow.
We will probably win some & lose some, but it doesn’t look boring.

[Blizzard of 93]

The period around the 13th & 14th bears watching for a storm that could track under us.

[Bubbler86]

4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

48.4 and cloudy here at 12:11pm.

We eventually made it to 60 but not after non forecasted rain and less than ideal park weather.

[Blizzard of 93]

59 minutes ago, canderson said:

The 30% chance of showers has led to three straight hours of rain here. 

Yes, brutal today with unexpected rain!

We went to walk around Little Buffalo state park up in Newport. The temps were nice in the mid 50s with clouds. The second half of our trail walk around the lake brought the unexpected rain showers!

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

The 30% chance of showers has led to three straight hours of rain here. 

yeah i too was wondering where that came from.  Pulling an axle out of a trailer in rain....no fun, but its done.