pawatch Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Seems you guys below 80 are getting some good rains. 43 degrees and some drizzle up here this morning. We going to hit 50 degrees today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 So is that upcoming colder wintry pattern gonna be delayed or denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, pawatch said: Seems you guys below 80 are getting some good rains. 43 degrees and some drizzle up here this morning. We going to hit 50 degrees today. The HRRR is quite warm for highs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: So is that upcoming colder wintry pattern gonna be delayed or denied? Slightly delayed, but not denied. The blocking period is just getting underway. These can take a little time to develop before we see our Winter storm chances emerge. I think we that we will have some chances to track this month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Slightly delayed, but not denied. The blocking period is just getting underway. These can take a little time to develop before we see our Winter storm chances emerge. I think we that we will have some chances to track this month. Thanks, seems like I seen and heard modeling, particularly the gfs is all over the place run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The HRRR is quite warm for highs. Not much cold air on that map. Picked up 0.50” of rainfall overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Haha thats pretty funny. I actually went to school with him. Had horst as the lead forecaster when I was there. I miss Horst, had some back'n'forth with him a couple times over Twitter. I wish he would post more often but I get it, with his whole rock-climbing gig and all. As for the whole kerfuffle going on here, I haven't had a lot of time to look into things since my whole life is just screaming children (excuse me, I mean adorable loving children); however, I would add that I have absolutely no problem with sports banter or any other type of banter for that matter. It's not like this forum is overly busy with traffic. Now, with that said, I could do without so many of the short choppy back'n'forth posts, as it just leads to my lazy a$$ having to scroll more pages to get through stuff. That could also just stem from my disdain of people who send like seven scatter-brained texts in a row, causing my phone to buzz and light up multiple times, rather than just typing one coherent thought and clicking send once, but I digress. And oh yeah, @Itstrainingtime keep on posting that MU stuff, no harm no foul. All in all, it's a good board with a good mix of weather and off-topic and I don't see the need for any substantive changes. Now, about all that basketball talk......how about some real sports chatter like volleyball and wrestling!? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 25 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Thanks, seems like I seen and heard modeling, particularly the gfs is all over the place run to run. Yes, the GFS has especially been a roller coaster lately, more than usual. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 26 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I miss Horst, had some back'n'forth with him a couple times over Twitter. I wish he would post more often but I get it, with his whole rock-climbing gig and all. As for the whole kerfuffle going on here, I haven't had a lot of time to look into things since my whole life is just screaming children (excuse me, I mean adorable loving children); however, I would add that I have absolutely no problem with sports banter or any other type of banter for that matter. It's not like this forum is overly busy with traffic. Now, with that said, I could do without so many of the short choppy back'n'forth posts, as it just leads to my lazy a$$ having to scroll more pages to get through stuff. That could also just stem from my disdain of people who send like seven scatter-brained texts in a row, causing my phone to buzz and light up multiple times, rather than just typing one coherent thought and clicking send once, but I digress. And oh yeah, @Itstrainingtime keep on posting that MU stuff, no harm no foul. All in all, it's a good board with a good mix of weather and off-topic and I don't see the need for any substantive changes. Now, about all that basketball talk......how about some real sports chatter like volleyball and wrestling!? You had me drawn in to read at Kerfuffle! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, the GFS has especially been a roller coaster lately, more than usual. GFS hasn’t been showing us much cold love lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 47 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Thanks, seems like I seen and heard modeling, particularly the gfs is all over the place run to run. Go look at the last few runs of the GooFuS post 200. Fish dont flop that much. Thats why I've always been of the mindset that Op runs need to be used/analyzed outside 7 days with a sizeable grain of salt, and only inside 3 can we really start to sort out details. Especially during times of transition (pattern wise). I'd wager most knowledgeable ones would agree with that assessment, as Ens runs are a better tool beyond a week out...and they are taken with a slightly smaller grain of salt.. (yeah, the nickname is back for the foreseeable future for me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Yesterday when Mag and I had an exchange regarding next weeks mess, I suggested that a few years back we had a system cut so far west that some energy was ejected into the block in the east, it created a bit of wintery fun for us. This photo depicts that very thing for next week. Not saying its happening, just sharing info to back up my statement from yesterday. Mind you it may be gone after the next run, but IF this evolves as suggested, this isnt outside the rhealm of possibilities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, pawatch said: GFS hasn’t been showing us much cold love lately. Today seems to be the warmest day progged for a bit so not too bad hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 As I'm fond of noting, today is the earliest sunset around these parts. By the time we get to the solstice, sunset will be about 3.5 minutes later. The latest sunrise will not occur until January 4th. And to really be the life of the party, next Wednesday, the 14th, is as close solar noon (sun at daily zenith) and clock noon come to coinciding. The difference will only be a few seconds. During Daylight Savings Time, solar noon occurs around +/- 1:00 PM. So if we eliminate Standard Time, next Wednesday will be the last time the two will ever coincide. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: So is that upcoming colder wintry pattern gonna be delayed or denied? Denied. The cold weather magnet has left the region... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 11 minutes ago, Voyager said: Denied. The cold weather magnet has left the region... what if we start a gofundwinter, and make you the recipient of fundage to come back east. Just keep your snow dome out west....K? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 47 Foggy and Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Festus said: As I'm fond of noting, today is the earliest sunset around these parts. By the time we get to the solstice, sunset will be about 3.5 minutes later. The latest sunrise will not occur until January 4th. And to really be the life of the party, next Wednesday, the 14th, is as close solar noon (sun at daily zenith) and clock noon come to coinciding. The difference will only be a few seconds. During Daylight Savings Time, solar noon occurs around +/- 1:00 PM. So if we eliminate Standard Time, next Wednesday will be the last time the two will ever coincide. These are the weeks when I most covet snow - love the shortened hours when snow has an opportunity to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Today seems to be the warmest day progged for a bit so not too bad hopefully. It felt noticeably warmer this morning than yesterday. More like an October day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: These are the weeks when I most covet snow - love the shortened hours when snow has an opportunity to melt. Agreed. The thing I love the most about winter is the winter landscape and snow that has staying power. That can't happen in late winter, but it certainly can now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 I am in Syracuse area for work. When it’s 50F here in the morning, you know it’s warm.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It felt noticeably warmer this morning than yesterday. More like an October day. Had to run to Members 1st in Enola for a quick meeting, and yeah, its soupy out. Crossing 81/15 in Enola, you couldnt see the water and windows were open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It felt noticeably warmer this morning than yesterday. More like an October day. I have had to revert back to short sleeves. 52 and cloudy/foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Nooners 50 Cloudy Fog is gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I have had to revert back to short sleeves. 52 and cloudy/foggy. I had to...stay in mine. LOL After receiving .33" of rain yesterday, no measurable precip has fallen here today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Afternoon Globals...Icon, CMC and GFS, all minor out Friday now but tease a bit with a late weekend white rain situation for Northern LSV and north...CMC is the snowiest of the 3. Surface temps in the mid 30's even Northern PA during this panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Afternoon Globals...Icon, CMC and GFS, all minor out Friday now but tease a bit with a late weekend white rain situation for Northern LSV and north...CMC is the snowiest of the 3. Surface temps in the mid 30's even Northern PA during this panel. That is not bad plenty of time to bring that a nudge south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 11 minutes ago, paweather said: That is not bad plenty of time to bring that a nudge south. I would love to see some actual accums...upper levels can probably be helped but worried about where the surface nudge down would come from if the primary makes it into Ohio. The day before is really not that cold per all the progs so hard to defend CAD too much. Again, just a model discussion and not a forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I would love to see some actual accums...upper levels can probably be helped but worried about where the surface nudge down would come from if the primary makes it into Ohio. The day before is really not that cold per all the progs so hard to defend CAD too much. Again, just a model discussion and not a forecast. Yeah going to be tough for sure maybe some wet white flakes down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I had to...stay in mine. LOL After receiving .33" of rain yesterday, no measurable precip has fallen here today. I still haven't moved my gauge over to the new house so that's why I've been silent on the recent rain. It's not exactly high on the priority list right now, well, high for me, not so much for the wife haha. I'll stop by tomorrow and check it out. I see your beloved Mammoth Mountain has added an additional 4 feet since the start of December. Seems like they're off to a solid start for the season, would love to see one of those 500-600" type years out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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