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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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5:00a Williamsport Report: Here's today's second Merry Christmas to All wish. And let me say how happy I am not to be anywhere near the mess up in Buffalo. 

Things are improving here: 16 now, winds down to 13; high will be 21. Hard to believe New Year's Eve will be 42 and New Year's 53/39.

Have a great day today, everyone!

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We are going to pay the price for this beautiful Christmas weekend here in the desert. Check out the forecast (and high end rainfall potential) for the middle of this upcoming week.

Tuesday Night
Cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Not as cool. Lows 49 to 54. Chance of rain 50 percent. Rainfall up to a half of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Showers and cooler. Highs 57 to 63. Chance of rain 80 percent. Rainfall up to three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely. Lows 48 to 53. Chance of rain 70 percent. Rainfall between a quarter and a half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 56 to 61. Chance of rain 70 percent. Rainfall between a quarter and a half of an inch possible.
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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

We are going to pay the price for this beautiful Christmas weekend here in the desert. Check out the forecast (and high end rainfall potential) for the middle of this upcoming week.

Tuesday Night
Cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Not as cool. Lows 49 to 54. Chance of rain 50 percent. Rainfall up to a half of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Showers and cooler. Highs 57 to 63. Chance of rain 80 percent. Rainfall up to three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely. Lows 48 to 53. Chance of rain 70 percent. Rainfall between a quarter and a half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 56 to 61. Chance of rain 70 percent. Rainfall between a quarter and a half of an inch possible.

The thing that gets me is that 6 to 7 days before the code snap the Arctic blast the forecast for Christmas weekend Friday Saturday Sunday was temps in the mid to upper 40s with maybe a shower but otherwise whether uneventful. And what happened 4 days before the Christmas weekend size and Arctic blast to the point that they said this could last for several weeks early on my temperatures for next week we're in the twenties all week and you know people bought it as gospel now people see a warm up which will probably happen like it always does but models this far out cannot predict weather for anything it's the best guess case scenario.

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On 12/22/2022 at 6:42 AM, Yardstickgozinya said:

If you lay in cold bathwater and take a piss it will eventually warm your feet even if you don't move, mixing to equalize

I apologize @Ruin , Some nights I tend to over indulge in Grams old fashioned Nug top Cake . I'm sure there are more ways this could happen than I am aware of. All I am saying is there can be  air aloft of a different temperature that can get mixed in , or warmer/cooler air nearby that can work its way in/out , expanding ,shrinking or simply just moving in slowly. These guys here are incredibly cold shouldered  to nubes around here that don't kiss the back side , and my humor can certainly be offensively confusing when it's even humor lol . There are plenty of guys here that could have given you a great answer quickly, but because you question the computer and media gods that can't get a single synoptic detail correct a majority of the time inside 48 for a huge chunk of the US unless the pattern is locked , so you have very few friends around here  . I suggest you look up mesoscale  analysis on YouTube,  and you will find your answers there in time. 

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Merry Christmas everyone!

Temp has reached a balmy 15.1ºF, still a pretty stiff breeze. This arctic air mass has definitely been something else. TIme of the year (min sun angle) has a part in it but since the air mass arrived Friday Morning temperature trends have been completely non-diurnal. Christmas Eve here had a -3.5ºF low and a high of 10.8ºF, which was reached right at midnight last night. Mean temp yesterday was 2.5ºF, averaged from obs every min. Today had pretty steady temps with a low of 10.8 and high 15.3ºF. 

As mentioned yesterday, we spent about 18 hrs straight being below zero which covered max daytime heating hours Friday. And consecutive single digit temps ranged from about 1030am Fri til 1130pm last night (37 straight hours). That’s some pretty impressive stuff, it can get cold around here and obviously much colder in radiational cooling situations but you don’t see that kind of cold very often directly associated from the air mass. 

Temp/Dew/Apparent graph Dec 22 to Current

233474780_Screenshot2022-12-25at9_45_57PM.thumb.png.cee658c6ddde4122609a8a0ffe3505d8.png

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