Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[Blizzard of 93]

12z Euro & 18z GFS like the idea of some snow on Friday for a good part of CTP.

[Itstrainingtime]

46 minutes ago, paweather said:

Not me this is an open board if I want to include sports then I will.  Ban me if that is the case and doc rivers needs fired.  You don’t lose to the rockets. I respect everyone in here especially since you have to read my non intelligent weather posts but I do and you can ignore if you want. Love this board. 

I appreciate that. Truly. 

At the same time, I'm not looking to offend people and drive them away. Personal decision. I'm stopping sports and MU content.

[pasnownut]

57 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Also, I am guilty more than most on here with my sports BS. I will cease that immediately. 

I am a minority in all of the sports post banter (and yes, wish it was in a banter thread), but to hold true to my last statement, this isnt about me.....and many folks here seem to enjoy many sports far more than I....that's totally fine. 

On the other hand, to have to put up with all of the sports garble, and then share what I do and get bashed/ignored because MU, MA forum, or a red tagger didnt say it, is bullshit and I'll call it that any and every time.  I'm sure Mag knows and understands that we respect and enjoy his and any others visits/disco as often as he can, but that doesn't mean we cant have convo without him or others more knowledgeable chiming in. 

Many of us here have varying levels of interest and knowledge, and some of us go a little extra to offer credibility to our offerings, if not for being correct, for the sake of conversation/discussion.    Most of us get along reasonably well, but this petty bullshit game is old and seen by all.     

Some of you seem to have forgotten what this board is about.  

 

Ok now I'm done.  

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I appreciate that. Truly. 

At the same time, I'm not looking to offend people and drive them away. Personal decision. I'm stopping sports and MU content.

Dude, keep up with the MU.  That cat knows his stuff.  Just understand that more than one person can offer good insight....and yeah on some occasions, even you and I.  

[pasnownut]

sheeesh....now that were finally through that trainwreck.....

 

Ok since some might be a tad gun-shy right now.....I'm not.

verbatim, the CAD feature sponsored by NAO that I alluded to yesterday (and Mag supported today) is starting to show up a bit better and is reflected on surface map.  540 creeping back SW which opens that window a tad for a few of us snow starved geeses.

I'm rather confident that most of the smart guys will agree.....and since inside 84, well worth the disco.  Looks like most of the A team models now have frozen of some sort showing up.  

[Itstrainingtime]

.32" of rain has fallen here so far. 

Drizzle, fog and 45 now.

[pawatch]

I’m ok with the board. Not like the weather has made it super busy.

I don’t follow sports that much, but ok with the guys talking about it.

I follow MU on Twitter. Hell even sometimes in the morning drink my coffee and watch Weather Nation.

Thankful for a handful of people on here.

Edit: Everyone on here!

 

[Voyager]

Will you guys PLEASE take this persistent trough off my hands? My forecast for early next week...

Monday

A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. West wind around 5 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 36. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 56. North northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

[anotherman]

Let’s be honest, people are only annoyed with Elliot from MU because he usually crushes our snowy dreams. I guarantee you no one would complain about him if we were getting plastered regularly.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Will you guys PLEASE take this persistent trough off my hands? My forecast for early next week...

Monday

A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. West wind around 5 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 36. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 56. North northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

bragger........

jealousy has many faces.....mine being one of em.  Try to enjoy it for us ridge folk.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

Let’s be honest, people are only annoyed with Elliot from MU because he usually crushes our snowy dreams. I guarantee you no one would complain about him if we were getting plastered regularly.

Dont know of anyone annoyed by him, but he is not on this board (to my knowledge), and disco can be had while waiting for Trainer to post his thoughts....good or bad.  Thats all I'm saying. 

One of the reasons I used to go into the MA thread, is that while it often ended up in a dumpster fire, there were many that brought a bunch of good/useful convo to their thread, and most left me in because I did the same...knowing I was an "outsider" to there sub.  We had some great discos and yes sometimes disagreements, but thats part of the fun/learning...isnt it?  Some good ones have left there because of the BS, and I guess I'm hoping that doesnt happen here.  

 

 

[canderson]

Haven’t had any time and won’t have any to look at models but I hope to see some mood flakes Friday evening. 

[Blizzard of 93]

We need to try to all get along on here!

We all have different posting styles & tendencies. There are many running jokes & funny references that go back years in some cases. Sometimes, we talk about sports, even though we root for a variety of teams. It is all good with me. I have learned not to take anything personal on here. We all share a love for the weather, but we each have a different style of expressing our thoughts.
I have never met any of you in person, but I feel like I know a decent bit about many of you. I look forward to visiting this place everyday!

 

 

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, canderson said:

Haven’t had any time and won’t have any to look at models but I hope to see some mood flakes Friday evening. 

yeah we need mood flakes for sure.

I'll be up north and some well south of me may be cashin in a bit.  My luck.

IF CAD feature continues to build on the next few runs, It's not unreasonable to think yall may be in for a little love from above.  

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I know a lot here would pay cold cash for a White Christmas.   

Lol, how much is the fee? Maybe we could start a go fund me for it!

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, how much is the fee? Maybe we could start a go fund me for it!

Oh the irony.  Go look at NAM.  No storm to fund, but the cold press continues and is notably further south. 

From cutterville right to suppression depression....  Cant make this stuff up.....or maybe we can?? 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, how much is the fee? Maybe we could start a go fund me for it!

Ha.  It seems every go fund me gets lots of money.  Better than bitcoin! 

On your other post, not sure how sports came back up again but if a lot of people hate it, I would certainly have no issue stopping.  When weather is slow it is fun to talk about other stuff and make this place one to look forward to visiting.  So sorry I started the MU discussion again.    I know he is not preaching snow and may not make some happy but He seemed to be in the minority a week or two ago yet as of now, his call seems pretty good for the first couple weeks at least. Much more responsible than some of the Twitter Mets who were maybe too sensationalized as of today MR models. 

[Blizzard of 93]

7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Would be great to see more realistic posts like MU and Mag's when talking about actual reasonable weather. I find nothing wrong with throwing up 200+ hour maps and saying "look what model X is showing" as a way to stimulate convo (I probably do it as much as anyone) but throwing them up and somehow suggesting something is a legit pattern or situation that is probably forthcoming does lead to a lot of overzealous thoughts and hopes.   There is a difference between model discussion and weather discussion. Model PBP of 200 hours out is wrong a vast majority of the time but interesting if taken with a grain of salt.  

Looking at patterns 2 weeks out on ensembles helps to give us an idea of where we are possibly heading in terms of potential sensible weather. When the various ensembles agree and they don’t get pushed back in time, then we can reasonably expect that the advertised pattern is likely correct.

The teleconnections that some of us post help to indicate where the pattern is potentially heading. They help to forecast  where the ridges, troughs, etc. should be located that then will impact our storm tracks & air mass type. 

We all have varying levels of understanding these concepts. I have learned a ton from some good posters in here and the other regional forums.
Discussion on the pattern & looking at the range of possibilities is what most weather boards are built upon. 
Sometimes advertised patterns come to fruition and other times they they never materialize, but it should always be ok to discuss and share our thoughts & analysis.
The thrill of the chase, especially in the Winter, is what keeps me coming back here every day!

[Blizzard of 93]

14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Ha.  It seems every go fund me gets lots of money.  Better than bitcoin! 

On your other post, not sure how sports came back up again but if a lot of people hate it, I would certainly have no issue stopping.  When weather is slow it is fun to talk about other stuff and make this place one to look forward to visiting.  So sorry I started the MU discussion again.    I know he is not preaching snow and may not make some happy but He seemed to be in the minority a week or two ago yet as of now, his call seems pretty good for the first couple weeks at least. Much more responsible than some of the Twitter Mets who were maybe too sensationalized as of today MR models. 

The MU posts are great. Horst & the new MU guy really have fantastic analysis. I like when @Itstrainingtime posts their forecasts on here. We can then still discuss their thoughts and agree or disagree, as long as we have something reasonable to support it.

Some of the Twitter Mets & pro/semi-pro forecasters on the Internet really do drive the hype, but I have learned to read between the lines & extract their ideas.

I think the sports posts are good, especially when nothing major is going on with the weather. It’s all usually in good fun & it keeps the discussion going in here when the weather is not too exciting.

[Bubbler86]

18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Looking at patterns 2 weeks out on ensembles helps to give us an idea of where we are possibly heading in terms of potential sensible weather. When the various ensembles agree and they don’t get pushed back in time, then we can reasonably expect that the advertised pattern is likely correct.

The teleconnections that some of us post help to indicate where the pattern is potentially heading. They help to forecast  where the ridges, troughs, etc. should be located that then will impact our storm tracks & air mass type. 

We all have varying levels of understanding these concepts. I have learned a ton from some good posters in here and the other regional forums.
Discussion on the pattern & looking at the range of possibilities is what most weather boards are built upon. 
Sometimes advertised patterns come to fruition and other times they they never materialize, but it should always be ok to discuss and share our thoughts & analysis.
The thrill of the chase, especially in the Winter, is what keeps me coming back here every day!

My post was more pointed toward when we have Met's (mostly not on AmWx but reposted here)  continuously comparing patterns that are weeks out to historical years, it leads to disappointment quite often.  The two posts I mentioned as being solid were less sensationalized.  If you took my post as being directed at posters here, it was not for the most part.  I did comment that posting single panels of the model of the night is just model discussion and not true scientific weather forecasting...and I do a lot of that because the model discussion is fun. I wanted to separate out that my post was NOT directed at that/model discussion.    It is not my place to tell people here what to post outside of name calling type posts.   I thought it was clear but I guess was not.  We have so few posts here, if any one regular stopped posting the board would be really slow. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The MU posts are great. Horst & the new MU guy really have fantastic analysis. I like when @Itstrainingtime posts their forecasts on here. We can then still discuss their thoughts and agree or disagree, as long as we have something reasonable to support it.

Some of the Twitter Mets & pro/semi-pro forecasters on the Internet really do drive the hype, but I have learned to read between the lines & extract their ideas.

I think the sports posts are good, especially when nothing major is going on with the weather. It’s all usually in good fun & it keeps the discussion going in here when the weather is not too exciting.

I posted my other post before reading this but I think it still applies.  On sports, I truly like the team's I root for but have no personal angst against the team's others like..even the Eagles!  Lol.  The Eagles are stomping the league right now.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My post was more point toward when we have Met's (mostly not on AmWx but reposted here) so continuously comparing patterns that are weeks out to historical years, it leads to disappointment quite often.  The two posts I mentioned as being solid were less sensationalized.  If you took my post as being directed at posters here, it was not for the most part.  I did comment that posting single panels of the model of the night is just model discussion and not true scientific weather forecasting...and I do a lot of that because the model discussion is fun. I wanted to separate out that my post was NOT directed at that/model discussion.    It is not my place to tell people here what to post outside of name calling type posts.   I thought it was clear but I guess was not.  We have so few posts here, if any one regular stopped posting the board would be really slow. 

It’s all good!

Most of us regular posters know that posting a long range map with a few comments is not a forecast. It is just one of the possibilities in the range of outcomes that the particular model run showed. Other models could disagree or the pattern or storm type may not support the model run.

It’s all just sharing and discussing the possibilities, whether it’s 1 week out or 1 day out.

[canderson]

Snowing here now. Light stuff. 

[Superstorm]

Let’s be honest, people are only annoyed with Elliot from MU because he usually crushes our snowy dreams. I guarantee you no one would complain about him if we were getting plastered regularly.

Bingo


.

[CoralRed]

I missed things earlier. 

Three points:

1. I personally just scroll by when you guys talk sports, no problem. I pretty much don't care about what people say or post. 

2. If there is interest in a banter thread so this one stays mostly  focused on weather, people should just create one and we can see how it goes.

3. The only thing that bothers me is the idea that people hold back and  don't say or post what they want to.  Please just share your thoughts and things you find relevant or interesting and others might, too. 

[TheDreamTraveler]

11 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Would be great to see more realistic posts like MU and Mag's when talking about actual reasonable weather. I find nothing wrong with throwing up 200+ hour maps and saying "look what model X is showing" as a way to stimulate convo (I probably do it as much as anyone) but throwing them up and somehow suggesting something is a legit pattern or situation that is probably forthcoming does lead to a lot of overzealous thoughts and hopes.   There is a difference between model discussion and weather discussion. Model PBP of 200 hours out is wrong a vast majority of the time but interesting if taken with a grain of salt.  

This happened a ton last year and we all know how that entire winter went for a lot of us. All it serves is to drive up hype and then disappointment and as soon as we get through one disappointment it's onto the next week rinse and repeat. There's definitely a way to use models to drive hype and excitement if they're closer in time and not 200+ hours out or if there's a consistent pattern/modeling appearing. I wanted to say something yesterday about this but decided not to. Should add I don't think there's anything wrong with showing long range models as long as the way it's talked about is realistic and helps keep everyone's expectations in check

[so_whats_happening]

8 hours ago, anotherman said:

Let’s be honest, people are only annoyed with Elliot from MU because he usually crushes our snowy dreams. I guarantee you no one would complain about him if we were getting plastered regularly.

Haha thats pretty funny. I actually went to school with him. Had horst as the lead forecaster when I was there.

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Haha thats pretty funny. I actually went to school with him. Had horst as the lead forecaster when I was there.

So_What's_Keeping so_whats_happening from joining in here.  LOL

[Bubbler86]

5 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

This happened a ton last year and we all know how that entire winter went for a lot of us. All it serves is to drive up hype and then disappointment and as soon as we get through one disappointment it's onto the next week rinse and repeat. There's definitely a way to use models to drive hype and excitement if they're closer in time and not 200+ hours out or if there's a consistent pattern/modeling appearing. I wanted to say something yesterday about this but decided not to. Should add I don't think there's anything wrong with showing long range models as long as the way it's talked about is realistic and helps keep everyone's expectations in check

Seems to happen every year.  I think your post is a good breakdown of model discussion vs weather discussion.   

[Bubbler86]

Mod to Heavy rain and 43 here this AM.