Itstrainingtime Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We have received a good 3/4" of rain since 3PM. Rain + right now. Moderate rain has arrived and brought with it the anticipated spike in temps - up 5 degrees over the past 30 minutes to 41 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 We get another hour or two of this rain and some streams are going to be going over. 1.2" total now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 18z Euro gives MDT 4-5” anafrontal snow tmrw. When did it decide to go all in on being the snowiest model? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 18Z HRRR temps Sat AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 18z Euro gives MDT 4-5” anafrontal snow tmrw. When did it decide to go all in on being the snowiest model?What about points south? York? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Moderate rain and 32.5ºF, I got drenched finishing up snow blowing and shoveling. Here was the first tracks snow pic from a little while ago. I’ll have a follow up tomorrow morning on the pack after the Day After Tomorrow promptly arrives at 12z. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, canderson said: 18z Euro gives MDT 4-5” anafrontal snow tmrw. When did it decide to go all in on being the snowiest model? Is the 18z Euro even out yet? I don’t see any guidance suggesting that at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Is the 18z Euro even out yet? I don’t see any guidance suggesting that at the moment. No it's not, and it won't be for another hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We get another hour or two of this rain and some streams are going to be going over. 1.2" total now. Just reached .50" here with moderate rain falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 LOL, that is damn funny re: the 18Z Euro. LOL. It is rolling early today! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 NY Day on the GFS....65-70 and wet. Good Gracious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 57 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Is the 18z Euro even out yet? I don’t see any guidance suggesting that at the moment. Hmmm I saw it on the MA forum - maybe I misread? Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Very heavy rain about to move back into the SW area of the LSV (next hour or so, in N Md.). Up to 40 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Very heavy rain about to move back into the SW area of the LSV (next hour or so, in N Md.). Up to 40 here. Imagine if that were snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Imagine if that were snow Christmas cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Is the 18z Euro even out yet? I don’t see any guidance suggesting that at the moment. Exactly, the 12z Euro shows about 1 inch tomorrow in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 MDT is officially on the board with 2.0 inches of snow today as of the 5 pm daily summary. If they get around 1 inch tomorrow, they will be only around 1 inch below normal snow through tomorrow’s date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Exactly, the 12z Euro shows about 1 inch tomorrow in the LSV. Good stuff Blizz ugly out but needed to get Christmas done before it is uglier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 Great post by @CAPE in the Mid Atlantic thread about where the pattern is heading in January. Latest edition of the Euro weeklies. Pretty much the same pattern progression as other extended products on the Pacific side. NAO neutral/slightly+. Around the 10th and esp beyond, the pattern turns colder/ more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 hour ago, canderson said: Hmmm I saw it on the MA forum - maybe I misread? Sorry! No problem haha, I was looking to see if you meant the NAM or the GFS when you said that. At any rate even just a half inch to an inch with the rapid temp drops and winds is going to need to be seriously considered for flash freezes and issues on the interstates if one is travelling tomorrow morning. I think CTP probably should have hung on to advisories back here this evening for freezing rain. Lot of accidents and 911 chatter of iced up roads, especially on the roads going up the Allegheny Front…but some of the other local mountain roads as well. Temp here at home is just a hair above freezing at 33ºF. Edit to add, I do have some refreezing of my driveway going on despite salting it earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Here is the long awaited 18z Euro Kuchera map for tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the long awaited 18z Euro Kuchera map for tomorrow. So .4 to .5". It all adds up now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the long awaited 18z Euro Kuchera map for tomorrow. Yeah front end was better thank you guys I thought the back end would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Heavy rain, windy, and 46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 It has been pissing rain for the last two hours atleast. My (sporadic at best) rain gauge is showing 1.34in so far today but its gotta be more than that. 41.7f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Heavy rain, windy, and 46. You might have your 50's in the bag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 0Z HRRR dropped several degrees in some places. From -1 to -3 near here. Too cold. 4 degrees at MDT at 5PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Sounds familiar in our worst winters 2020: ⚠️ SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN REGARDING CHRISTMAS EVE - PLEASE READ STATEMENT IN ITS ENTIRETY AND METICULOUSLY: A powerful cold front on the lead of a very deep/cold trough will arrive during the evening on Thursday. This is NOT your typical cold front passage, and it will be both impactful and disruptive. First, this is NOT a snow event. Although snowflakes may mix at the tail end of precipitation in a few far NW/interior areas, the vast majority of it is a very mild RAIN. A low level jet at 700mb (approx. 10,000 feet AGL) will co-align itself parallel the incoming front/trough, increasing wind potential down to the surface. APPROXIMATE TIMING: Rain showers arrive during the afternoon Thursday W-E, and becomes increasingly heavy during the evening. A potent thunderstorm squall line (with some lightning possible) traverses our region W-E from about 9pm-3am Thursday evening/early Friday AM. Once the squall line moves through, precipitation abruptly ends in the pre-dawn hours, and wind subsides significantly. A few flurries may linger on Christmas Day. IMPACTS: 1) Heavy rain for most between 1.0-1.5" with higher amounts in areas of elevation exceeding 2.0" with added lift, combined with rapid snow melt will lead to flooding concerns Thursday PM/overnight. 2) Unusually high wind gusts picking up to 30-40mph+ mid to late afternoon Thursday, then increasing to 40-50mph+ during the evening. With the aforementioned squall line as it moves through W-E approximately 9pm-3am, 50-60mph+ gusts are likely with over 60mph peak gusts most likely to occur in far Eastern PA, Delaware and all of New Jersey. There is a HIGH concern for widespread power outages across the region Thursday evening/night unfortunately. 3) As the squall line passes and the front clears late Thursday night, a rapid temperature crash is expected from the mid to upper 50s prior to the front to below freezing in just a few hours time. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day on Christmas Day. This will lead to a FLASH FREEZE and all wet surfaces will become ice, including roadways, sidewalks, and all exposed surfaces. Given the very poor and worst possible timing of the holiday, increased attention and emphasis is placed on this particular event. Please have a plan in place to adapt to changing conditions with flooding, high winds/increased power outage potential, and the flash freeze that follows. Forecaster: Martrich 22DEC1500z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Probably unpopular opinion but.. I would rather have what’s coming tomorrow over this currently torrential rain and 33 degrees into a waterlogged snowpack. Is this what it’s like doing winter in the 95 corridor? Lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: Probably unpopular opinion but.. I would rather have what’s coming tomorrow over this currently torrential rain and 33 degrees into a waterlogged snowpack. Is this what it’s like doing winter in the 95 corridor? Lol Yes, minus the snowpack. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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