Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Central PA Winter 2022/2023


 Share

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah I've long thought they should use a weighted average for the daily temp.  Do something like take all the on-the-hour temps and multiply each one by 1/24th then add them all together.  Still not perfect but a much better picture of the day that's being evaluated.  Obviously the more time periods you split it up into, the more accurate it will be (e.g. sum all 15-minute temps readings times 1/96th).  Briefly touching an extreme value can have an undue influence on the daily average, especially when it occurs around midnight and affects multiple days.  This works in both directions and I suppose in the grand scheme of things all comes out in the wash, but I'm a stickler for numerical accuracy.  I digress. 

That would be a good idea to fix the average. Both figures could still be recorded (the weighted average you propose and actual highs and lows) with the current data, but if it is 55 at LNS or MDT at midnight, it looks like a short heatwave in what was really a wintery two-day period.   This is one of those issues that is really not an issue in the big scheme of the world, but we spend some much time talking anomalies here, this is a bit of an issue in really relying on the actual weather of the past.     With all this said, Friday could end up being one of the top differences between high and low for a day when all said and done. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wind chills advisories for the LSV 

PAZ057-059-065-066-230615-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WC.Y.0003.221223T1800Z-221224T1600Z/
Dauphin-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, York,
and Lancaster
103 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 15
  below zero. Frequent wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph late
  Friday morning through Saturday.

* WHERE...Dauphin, Lebanon, York and Lancaster Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 11 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if
  precautions are not taken.
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still hanging onto light snow here, even as surface temps have creeped up to about 33ºF for now. Waves of snow have been sporadic the last couple hours so haven’t added much (just measured 3.6”). Eyeing a heavier band coming up from Bedford and a look at the 511 cams there (and at Breezewood) is showing it snowing all the way down to there yet and actually starting to cave the roads a bit again there. So will see what happens, the HRRR hangs on to snow and/or mixed through about 4-5pm here now.. and the more QPF that ends up frozen the better. 

Was glad to see that some of the LSV overachieved this morning and some of the colder solutions had some merit for a change. I thought Harrisburg could get 1-2” when I posted very early this morning, so nice to see some overachieving. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That would be a good idea to fix the average. Both figures could still be recorded (the weighted average you propose and actual highs and lows) with the current data, but if it is 55 at LNS or MDT at midnight, it looks like a short heatwave in what was really a wintery two-day period.   This is one of those issues that is really not an issue in the big scheme of the world, but we spend some much time talking anomalies here, this is a bit of an issue in really relying on the actual weather of the past.     With all this said, Friday could end up being one of the top differences between high and low for a day when all said and done. 

Yeah the diurnal range for Friday is going to be something to behold.  I saw Cheyenne recorded its largest temperature drop ever, going from 43 to 3 in just 30 minutes.

Here is what I do know in regards to the daily average temp:  simply taking the daily high and low and finding the midpoint between the two, as is the method currently used, is NOT a fully accurate representation of the temperature profile for a given day.  I've said too much on this topic ha.  Back to the snow and cold speak.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah the diurnal range for Friday is going to be something to behold.  I saw Cheyenne recorded its largest temperature drop ever, going from 43 to 3 in just 30 minutes.
Here is what I do know in regards to the daily average temp:  simply taking the daily high and low and finding the midpoint between the two, as is the method currently used, is NOT a fully accurate representation of the temperature profile for a given day.  I've said too much on this topic ha.  Back to the snow and cold speak.

It’s the same for precip too. Need to take a broader and larger range to get a true average.


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's been raining lightly here for the past several hours.  Temp has very slowly risen to current 33.4 degrees.  Looks like I've picked up about 0.10" of rain since the changeover.  Had total of 3.4" of snow with 0.36" of liquid for nearly perfect 10:1.  Snow is definitely showing signs of compacting, but only 1.5 degrees above freezing slows down the melting a lot.  We'll see about later.  There's still 3" on the ground of increasingly wet snow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...