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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just a little light rain and a few pellets here at work. At most it's going in the books at .1" and that's being generous. Sounds like Maytown is fairing a little better...

Gonna say 1-1,25" prior to flip here at office.  Drizzle now.  

Nice job with several of the mesos showing sharp cutoff in W Lanco vs E.  Wife said not much of anything in New Holland. 

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP missed this one down here - kind of an impossible task but they should've hoisted a WWA by 8 a.m. IMO.

I admit, I'm the first one to defend them. I think, my opinion...you worded your comment very well. For all the people crying about not issuing a WWA, I'll point out a couple of observations:

  • They issue FAR more winter weather headlines (WWA, WSW, etc.) that do NOT pan out than times when criteria is met with nothing issued
  • There is a razor sharp edge to this event in terms of ground truth - I just had someone here in my office, I'm showing them some of the pictures that are being posted, and they're asking me where do these people live. I tell them that the pictures are coming from York, Adams, Dauphin counties etc. and they are stunned. There's literally nothing here. 

All that said - they should have updated with SOMETHING for York and Dauphin counties. No arguing that. 

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2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

They more than dropped the ball...they are always imo...to conservative it seems. But they do get it right most of the time.

See above - I do not think they're too conservative. I've watched a lot of WWA's they've issued for my area result in scattered puddles. We tend to forget those...

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I admit, I'm the first one to defend them. I think, my opinion...you worded your comment very well. For all the people crying about not issuing a WWA, I'll point out a couple of observations:

  • They issue FAR more winter weather headlines (WWA, WSW, etc.) that do NOT pan out than times when criteria is met with nothing issued
  • There is a razor sharp edge to this event in terms of ground truth - I just had someone here in my office, I'm showing them some of the pictures that are being posted, and they're asking me where do these people live. I tell them that the pictures are coming from York, Adams, Dauphin counties etc. and they are stunned. There's literally nothing here. 

All that said - they should have updated with SOMETHING for York and Dauphin counties. No arguing that. 

Agree.  This one (like many do) split our region into the haves/have nots. 

While I often wonder about what they issue, it goes to show that even the most seasoned mets that fully know and understand local climo.....

still miss the mark.  

 

Let that sink in EVERYONE!!.

We live in a really challenging spot for winter forecasters.  While I'm often pissed at what I read (or dont) from NWS, its a tough job and I'd NEVER want to do it.

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Just now, paweather said:

Now to see what the backend can deliver in Frigid weather

yeah, I'm happy to see the ground white and pics from the "haves", but am weary that afternoon/evening will knock the stuffing right outta the "snowpack" :P

Sure hope some can hold on, but its gonna be tough for most.  Below is time when best pricip hits tonight.

nam3km_T850_neus_13.png

nam3km_T2m_neus_12.png

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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Now to see what the backend can deliver in Frigid weather

looks a tad better on nooner NAM for us LSV'rs but like today, I'm livin on the edge, and setting lower expectations than today in hopes of once again being pleasantly surprised.  Today worked out just how I thought it would w/ central folks cashin in and was pretty well supported by short terms (although 12k was a bit lagging (12z Wed run not east enough w/ frozen).

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50 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Gonna say 1-1,25" prior to flip here at office.  Drizzle now.  

Nice job with several of the mesos showing sharp cutoff in W Lanco vs E.  Wife said not much of anything in New Holland. 

Yeah for the most part the models really nailed the cutoff across Lancaster County.

Just rain here now and roads are totally fine.  Officially .1" of snow/sleet going in the books for this guy.  I'll take it and hope for some fun little action tomorrow morning.

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah for the most part the models really nailed the cutoff across Lancaster County.

Just rain here now and roads are totally fine.  Officially .1" of snow/sleet going in the books for this guy.  I'll take it and hope for some fun little action tomorrow morning.

Thats crazy.  Just walked out to car to get reports, and a very safe 1" here.  I need to do that fbook pic thingy that Voyager shared w/ me.  

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Had snow flake size and intensity of all varieties during the past hour.  It mostly is still oscillating between light and moderate.  The intensity was enough to deliver an additional 0.5" to the storm total giving me 3.3" total so far.  As I type this the intensity is picking back up again to moderate and enough to accumulate a little bit more.  The negating factor now is the temperature which has risen to 31.6 degrees.  I'm hearing a tiny bit of melting coming down through the leaders of my gutters.  I have now officially exceeded the high end amount that NWS had forecast for me (by 0.3" lol).  I really hope I can hold on to at least enough that has some white on the ground after the rain ends overnight.  Perhaps we'll be treated to more than a dusting via the cold frontal passage tomorrow morning?

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