Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[paweather]

31 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

looks like our always delayed, but not always denied pattern change is now safely inside 10 days.  Hoping a week from now the real fun starts and we are looking at better chances.  

Let's hope Nut!

[Bubbler86]

Early nooners, 44 and damp.  Seeing the MA LR thread is really fretting now makes me think MU is starting to look good for at least the first half of Dec as to his monthly call. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Early nooners, 44 and damp.  Seeing the MA LR thread is really fretting now makes me think MU is starting to look good for at least the first half of Dec as to his monthly call. 

He certainly didn't seem overly excited about what he was seeing in the pattern. He acknowledged that there were a couple of things working for us, but he's also been adamant that there are issues to be resolved as well. For example, late December 2021 featured a strong -NAO and Lanco finished up at +8 for a temp departure:

"For anyone thinking that Greenland blocking (a -NAO) guarantees snow and cold for the mid-Atlantic States, you need only look back to last #December. The NAO was - for the last two weeks of the month, but temps were still 8°F above normal for the month at @millersvilleu..

The combination of a deep trough over western North America & ridging over the Southeast "offset" the -NAO & caused there to be very little snow and cold in southeastern PA. Although #December2022 should be chillier, we MAY see a modified version of this pattern."

It's only 12/6 so a lot can and probably will change, but the overall tone/demeanor has gotten notably more somber over the past several days. 

[pasnownut]

so....as we are once again reminded that just because the NAO is neg, it doesnt necessarily correlate to a cold east.  Thats only 1 part of the game, and not the only game in town gang. 

The PAC is usually our biggest influence in what happens in the east, and one fly in the snow/cold ointment has been the dumping of troughs into the SW, which typically aides in ridging here in the east.  I've been watching that on the Ens runs for the last few days, as we need that to stop (or have it offset by something greater) - like a notably stout NAO/AO, and like we are seeing now doesnt always work.  Cold is close, but not enough to force things under us.

Watch as we get to beyond mid next week, as the longwave pattern seemingly shuts off the troughing out west as the PNA heads into/twds + territory.  This hopefully helps to get things better aligned here in the east, or at the minimum gets us to a zonal look, which we all know is better than what weve been seeing.   

I'll take this look and see how things roll.

 

[pasnownut]

and if that persistent trough in the SW shows up again, well, we will need to search for something stronger to offset, as the trough west coupled w/ WAR has been stout and undeniably screwin us up here in the east.  

[Superstorm]

No end in site of PAC dump.


.

[MAG5035]

I’ve been trying to not get too high or low on modeling and the advertised pattern as we’ve gotten into the opening week of December. Two things i mentioned up front in my last post that opened up the winter thread was the -PNA and also the model mayhem trying to handle the blocky pattern. PNA seems to get lost at times when folks discuss the Pac and the other teleconnections of that realm (the EPO and WPO), so I’m glad to see it mentioned here.

A week ago, I figured the PNA would offer resistance but ultimately a -NAO block of the caliber being presented would set us up favorably in what appears to be an active period for storms the next couple weeks.. and that modelling would eventually respond to more cold pressing. I’m sure most are aware of the whiplash of model solutions that have been shown in the last week or so. Looking at things currently, I certainly don’t think things are cooked by any means but I do think what we’re looking for will still come in a delayed fashion. To go along with the continued  -PNA, the EPO is now forecast by guidance to go positive the next few to several days along with a WPO that had already been positive. After that EPO trends negative and PNA neutralizes on the progs. As long as that  actually occurs, the pattern we’re looking for should come to us as the dominant -NAO/AO looks to stay established for awhile. 

In the meantime, we do have systems on the table that could end up delivering wintry precip. The nearer term Fri/Sat system seems to be the best bet. The NAO block will still be doing its thing and there is a strong surface high being progged up top. Even the GFS today put some snow in PA with that system. This should deliver something to at least the interior PA counties, with the issue being QPF. There’s no amp in the pattern, and this system will weaken as it attacks the block. Still though, this could be a 1-3” or so type event somewhere in our region before it fizzles.

The system being progged around the mid-week timeframe next week looks to be a much stronger system and possibly the one that facilitates our awaited switch to the colder, more favorable regime. This one will likely cut or try to cut into the block. This could present an interesting situation that I’ve actually seen on some model solutions. With the strong blocking, it’s the kind of setup that could take the primary way west but still provide a period of wintry precip and/or snow if there’s even some marginal high support and lingering cold air. What then happens is the primary hits the block, occludes and forces a secondary somewhere on the coast. Will be something to watch… I still don’t think modelling has this pattern and specifically the -NAO blocking handled very well once to the mid-range. 

 

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I’ve been trying to not get too high or low on modeling and the advertised pattern as we’ve gotten into the opening week of December. Two things i mentioned up front in my last post that opened up the winter thread was the -PNA and also the model mayhem trying to handle the blocky pattern. PNA seems to get lost at times when folks discuss the Pac and the other teleconnections of that realm (the EPO and WPO), so I’m glad to see it mentioned here.

A week ago, I figured the PNA would offer resistance but ultimately a -NAO block of the caliber being presented would set us up favorably in what appears to be an active period for storms the next couple weeks.. and that modelling would eventually respond to more cold pressing. I’m sure most are aware of the whiplash of model solutions that have been shown in the last week or so. Looking at things currently, I certainly don’t think things are cooked by any means but I do think what we’re looking for will still come in a delayed fashion. To go along with the continued  -PNA, the EPO is now forecast by guidance to go positive the next few to several days along with a WPO that had already been positive. After that EPO trends negative and PNA neutralizes on the progs. As long as that  actually occurs, the pattern we’re looking for should come to us as the dominant -NAO/AO looks to stay established for awhile. 

In the meantime, we do have systems on the table that could end up delivering wintry precip. The nearer term Fri/Sat system seems to be the best bet. The NAO block will still be doing its thing and there is a strong surface high being progged up top. Even the GFS today put some snow in PA with that system. This should deliver something to at least the interior PA counties, with the issue being QPF. There’s no amp in the pattern, and this system will weaken as it attacks the block. Still though, this could be a 1-3” or so type event somewhere in our region before it fizzles.

The system being progged around the mid-week timeframe next week looks to be a much stronger system and possibly the one that facilitates our awaited switch to the colder, more favorable regime. This one will likely cut or try to cut into the block. This could present an interesting situation that I’ve actually seen on some model solutions. With the strong blocking, it’s the kind of setup that could take the primary way west but still provide a period of wintry precip and/or snow if there’s even some marginal high support and lingering cold air. What then happens is the primary hits the block, occludes and forces a secondary somewhere on the coast. Will be something to watch… I still don’t think modelling has this pattern and specifically the -NAO blocking handled very well once to the mid-range. 

 

I can remember some years back that we had a similar system (like mid next week) where it ended up so far west, that energy ejected around the base of the cold dome here in the east and gave us some wintery love from above.  Not saying that is going to happen, but as you said, with the roller coster we've been riding....I guess it can be a possible outcome.  NAO/AO look to stay in - territory, so hey...why not.  

[Itstrainingtime]

On 12/5/2022 at 11:28 AM, Itstrainingtime said:

Elliott shared the following over the weekend:

In addition, numerical computer models are notoriously bad at handling Greenland blocking and exhibit drastic, run-to-run differences.

 

10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I’ve been trying to not get too high or low on modeling and the advertised pattern as we’ve gotten into the opening week of December. Two things i mentioned up front in my last post that opened up the winter thread was the -PNA and also the model mayhem trying to handle the blocky pattern. PNA seems to get lost at times when folks discuss the Pac and the other teleconnections of that realm (the EPO and WPO), so I’m glad to see it mentioned here.

A week ago, I figured the PNA would offer resistance but ultimately a -NAO block of the caliber being presented would set us up favorably in what appears to be an active period for storms the next couple weeks.. and that modelling would eventually respond to more cold pressing. I’m sure most are aware of the whiplash of model solutions that have been shown in the last week or so. Looking at things currently, I certainly don’t think things are cooked by any means but I do think what we’re looking for will still come in a delayed fashion. To go along with the continued  -PNA, the EPO is now forecast by guidance to go positive the next few to several days along with a WPO that had already been positive. After that EPO trends negative and PNA neutralizes on the progs. As long as that  actually occurs, the pattern we’re looking for should come to us as the dominant -NAO/AO looks to stay established for awhile. 

In the meantime, we do have systems on the table that could end up delivering wintry precip. The nearer term Fri/Sat system seems to be the best bet. The NAO block will still be doing its thing and there is a strong surface high being progged up top. Even the GFS today put some snow in PA with that system. This should deliver something to at least the interior PA counties, with the issue being QPF. There’s no amp in the pattern, and this system will weaken as it attacks the block. Still though, this could be a 1-3” or so type event somewhere in our region before it fizzles.

The system being progged around the mid-week timeframe next week looks to be a much stronger system and possibly the one that facilitates our awaited switch to the colder, more favorable regime. This one will likely cut or try to cut into the block. This could present an interesting situation that I’ve actually seen on some model solutions. With the strong blocking, it’s the kind of setup that could take the primary way west but still provide a period of wintry precip and/or snow if there’s even some marginal high support and lingering cold air. What then happens is the primary hits the block, occludes and forces a secondary somewhere on the coast. Will be something to watch… I still don’t think modelling has this pattern and specifically the -NAO blocking handled very well once to the mid-range. 

 

There's a solid perspective/assessment from 2 mets. 

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

He certainly didn't seem overly excited about what he was seeing in the pattern. He acknowledged that there were a couple of things working for us, but he's also been adamant that there are issues to be resolved as well. For example, late December 2021 featured a strong -NAO and Lanco finished up at +8 for a temp departure:

"For anyone thinking that Greenland blocking (a -NAO) guarantees snow and cold for the mid-Atlantic States, you need only look back to last #December. The NAO was - for the last two weeks of the month, but temps were still 8°F above normal for the month at @millersvilleu..

The combination of a deep trough over western North America & ridging over the Southeast "offset" the -NAO & caused there to be very little snow and cold in southeastern PA. Although #December2022 should be chillier, we MAY see a modified version of this pattern."

It's only 12/6 so a lot can and probably will change, but the overall tone/demeanor has gotten notably more somber over the past several days. 

The funny thing is I was just looking at last year’s winter thread and we were talking about some of the same things we are now. A positive from this is that I don’t think we’ll see the western troughing to the degree we did last December and we’re working with a stronger -NAO. Recall the western pattern in December last year was such that it delivered a season’s worth of snowfall to the Sierras in California during a few weeks of December. (Before reversing the rest of the season). There was a lot of MJO influence last December as well (P6-7), while we’re in the circle with that right now. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

There's a solid perspective/assessment from 2 mets. 

Would be great to see more realistic posts like MU and Mag's when talking about actual reasonable weather. I find nothing wrong with throwing up 200+ hour maps and saying "look what model X is showing" as a way to stimulate convo (I probably do it as much as anyone) but throwing them up and somehow suggesting something is a legit pattern or situation that is probably forthcoming does lead to a lot of overzealous thoughts and hopes.   There is a difference between model discussion and weather discussion. Model PBP of 200 hours out is wrong a vast majority of the time but interesting if taken with a grain of salt.  

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Early nooners, 44 and damp.  Seeing the MA LR thread is really fretting now makes me think MU is starting to look good for at least the first half of Dec as to his monthly call. 

They had meltdowns during 2009 - 2010 winter.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

They had meltdowns during 2009 - 2010 winter.

I did not notice meltdowns just a back pedaling of hopes for the next 1-2 weeks,,,mainly due to the TPV per some of the notes I read. 

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

and if that persistent trough in the SW shows up again, well, we will need to search for something stronger to offset, as the trough west coupled w/ WAR has been stout and undeniably screwin us up here in the east.  

For what it's worth, I don't like the trough in the southwest either...

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

For what it's worth, I don't like the trough in the southwest either...

You have found a way to agree with coldinista's in the winter. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Would be great to see more realistic posts like MU and Mag's when talking about actual reasonable weather. I find nothing wrong with throwing up 200+ hour maps and saying "look what model X is showing" as a way to stimulate convo (I probably do it as much as anyone) but throwing them up and somehow suggesting something is a legit pattern or situation that is probably forthcoming does lead to a lot of overzealous thoughts and hopes.   There is a difference between model discussion and weather discussion. Model PBP of 200 hours out is wrong a vast majority of the time but interesting if taken with a grain of salt.  

coming from the king of 240 hr Op maps.....what a giggle fest.

When done with maps/indicies etc, that discuss options/possibilities, that is EXACTLY what this forum is for.  And fwiw, it sounds like my assesment was a reasonable one that led to some convo. (Mag please feel free to let me know if not). 

Let us know when you, MU or the MA forum says we can chat.....LMFAO.  Until then we'll keep the weather chat to a minimum, and you can go ON AND ON AND ON about all of your sports BS, that many put up w/ without a peep.  

At last check (been a long while), many most down there are just like most of us....with a few red taggers sprinkled in....but whatever.  Just another feeble attempt.  Hit the ignore button kid.

LOLOLS.....and more LOLS

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

For what it's worth, I don't like the trough in the southwest either...

Come back east then would ya...............

[Bubbler86]

Just picked up a quick 1/2" of rain.  Some stronger downpours embedded in this latest batch entering the Western LSV. 

[pasnownut]

Man I can remember the good ol days when a good handful of us that have weather knowledge/interest chatted up patterns/potential and what we thought might be coming down the road.  It was some great times and a bunch of us had fun doing it and learned so much from it. 

Dismissing my or any other posters convo on a board, because one or 2 didnt author (or like the author), is a real damn shame.  If discussing weather was only about being correct, there would be NOONE left here or on the board.  I throw up thoughts/reasoning and back it up w/ real maps/data, and not just heresay or info from others (without creds being given).  

I'm going to reiterate one more time, this isnt MY board, and I will never act like it.  Nor will I ever suggest how things should roll, but the above is just bad form and likely what has lead to much less chatter as the new disco board cops seem to wanna set the tone for how they like it.  Its seen by all...not just me. 

 I dont care who you are, what your degree (or weather course that you took in college) is.... Post away... and if youre on base with your assessment, well done...and if your not, someone may discuss or debate why not, and thats just what this intended for....for fun.

Rant over.  I hope many continue to chat it up and not feel otherwise.  Many peeps here are capable of good chatter, but if yall dont wanna do that and the Wizard wins.......enjoy the crickets.....  

[Itstrainingtime]

I post comments from MU because:

 - He's a met from our local area

 - People have told me that they appreciate reading his thoughts.

I did not think that was wrong. My bad.

[Itstrainingtime]

Also, I am guilty more than most on here with my sports BS. I will cease that immediately. 

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I post comments from MU because:

 - He's a met from our local area

 - People have told me that they appreciate reading his thoughts.

I did not think that was wrong. My bad.

It is not wrong IMO ...and so far, he is looking like he made a good call for the first half of the month. 

[paweather]

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Also, I am guilty more than most on here with my sports BS. I will cease that immediately. 

Not me this is an open board if I want to include sports then I will.  Ban me if that is the case and doc rivers needs fired.  You don’t lose to the rockets. I respect everyone in here especially since you have to read my non intelligent weather posts but I do and you can ignore if you want. Love this board. 

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Come back east then would ya...............

Nope. Even with trough it's still warmer here than there...lol

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Not me this is an open board if I want to include sports then I will.  Ban me if that is the case and doc rivers needs fired.  You don’t lose to the rockets. I respect everyone in here especially since you have to read my non intelligent weather posts but I do and you can ignore if you want. Love this board. 

I watched the end of that game, and the Beard made some bad plays.  Sixers are still a top team IMO though. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I watched the end of that game, and the Beard made some bad plays.  Sixers are still a top team IMO though. 

Well I’ll give it time for Maxey to come back but they looked bad. We will see! 

[Bubbler86]

20% into the month and MDT is -1.7 so far.... for those that stuck their necks out and made a predict. I still think we have a shot of a BN normal month.   MDT has not had a BN Dec since 2017/6 years ago when the month ended -3.2 with 6.1" of snow. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

20% into the month and MDT is -1.7 so far.... for those that stuck their necks out and made a predict. I still think we have a shot of a BN normal month.   MDT has not had a BN Dec since 2017 when the month ended -3.2 with 6.1" of snow. 

I hope so second half of the month needs to come through cold and snow. This gets prime time going. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, paweather said:

I hope so second half of the month needs to come through cold and snow. This gets prime time going. 

I know a lot here would pay cold cash for a White Christmas.   

[Blizzard of 93]

Friday

A slight chance of rain before 8am, then a chance of rain and snow between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of rain after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. 

Friday Night

Rain likely before 2am, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday

A chance of rain and snow before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 40%.