Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Wind headlines coming soon for everyone here for gusts 40-60. If someone has access to the gusts predicts on the Nam or Euro, would be great if they could let us know what it says...I understand you cannot post the actual panel. @Blizzard of 93? Here is what I am referring to on Pivotal but guessing it is similar on other sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Happy Winter Solstice everyone! Yep now days start to get longer damn sun angle issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If someone has access to the gusts predicts on the Nam or Euro, would be great if they could let us know what it says...I understand you cannot post the actual panel. @Blizzard of 93? Here is what I am referring to on Pivotal but guessing it is similar on other sites. I use Windy https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,2022122400,40.647,-77.028,10,m:eMRad03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Thanks, that is live data, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, paweather said: Yep now days start to get longer damn sun angle issues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 12Z HRRR starts snow in the Western LSV around rush hour tomorrow...does get some snow into Lanco but just far northern parts. Punches rain into Franklin fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Classic! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The HRRR has the front/temp drop through much of LSV before 7AM Fri. Temps are already below freezing from slightly west of MDT and back at that point Not much of a flash freeze though. Rain had stopped before midnight for the most part. Guess some roads could still be wet but 6-8 hours of drying time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 GFS still around 3" backend snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Long range GFS is one cutter after another. New Year's day is welcomed with rain. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Long range GFS is one cutter after another. New Year's day is welcomed with rain. LOL. Maybe the new GFS out in an hour or so will be different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z HRRR starts snow in the Western LSV around rush hour tomorrow...does get some snow into Lanco but just far northern parts. Punches rain into Franklin fairly quickly. kids may have a delay in the morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, paweather said: GFS still around 3" backend snow: Here is the money panel from the 6z GFS. It's the time of year that we wanna believe, so here you go....believe away (especially us in the LSV. This is your path to a white christmas, and IF it verifies will really impress me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 12z 3k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Maybe the new GFS out in an hour or so will be different. Of course it will. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, paweather said: Long range GFS is one cutter after another. New Year's day is welcomed with rain. LOL. Seems we can punt everything after Sunday into mid to late January, at the minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The FV3 would be one potent squall with the frontal passage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, canderson said: Seems we can punt everything after Sunday into mid to late January, at the minimum. We are actually still watching this time next week for a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Seems we can punt everything after Sunday into mid to late January, at the minimum. Punt could always get shanked - hey, sometimes we lose in great patterns and sometimes we win when the pattern might suggest we shouldn't. I'm certainly not closing the door for that amount of time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: Seems we can punt everything after Sunday into mid to late January, at the minimum. Ens guidance as I suggested a bit ago flip flops the blues n reds, but its a broad trough that both the EPS and GEPS at 10 days is centered in the central basin, so while not great...not horrid either IMO. Gotta hope prime climo can help in surprising us tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 It does seem like over the past several years we've had some January duds - doesn't mean that this year will offer the same. It only takes one well timed system that can change our perspective very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Newman said: The FV3 would be one potent squall with the frontal passage. Its pretty cool to see this still holding as we've basically been seeing this for the last 5ish days on most guidance (as well as the locked in cutter look). Although not what we want, it should give faith in the models having a clue once in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Punt could always get shanked - hey, sometimes we lose in great patterns and sometimes we win when the pattern might suggest we shouldn't. I'm certainly not closing the door for that amount of time. Totally agree. No incoming TORCH is being advertised. Relaxation sure, but wonky things can happen in what lies ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 @canderson@Bubbler86Here 'ya go with the gust panel... 12Z NAM max gust panel of entire run (occurs 7pm Thursday in the warm sector. Post front panels all considerably lower) 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Totally agree. No incoming TORCH is being advertised. Relaxation sure, but wonky things can happen in what lies ahead. Let's hope something changes the tune. As Training pointed out we have had some January duds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Here's the strongest gust panel from after the front has cleared our area (it's marginally higher at 7am just before the front with 35mph at MDT): 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Thanks @CarlislePaWx, I was curious to see if at least one model was showing plus 50 for the gusts. Windy but not crazy windy compared to the last few years. I do not have any subscriptions to model sites and none of the ones I used let me see the gust panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Thanks @CarlislePaWx, I was curious to see if at least one model was showing plus 50 for the gusts. Windy but not crazy windy compared to the last few years. I do not have any subscriptions to model sites and none of the ones I used let me see the gust panels. No Prob. I never cancelled my monthly subs back in May and just let it keep going. They've got a flash sale going on right now for an annual sub 20% off $99, so $79 for a year. That will save me $40 over 12 monthly payments. The regular and hi res Euro don't provide 10M winds at all, which was quite surprising. Hi res NAM just finished running so here's it's pre and post max gusts: PRE: POST: (Every hourly panel after this one has max gusts in the 30's) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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