Ruin Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'm just not feeling this one. I was hoping for more spacing between the 2 systems which would give the coastal/Thurs event a better chance for front end loving, but the cutter is close enough to screw it up and put a wreckin ball to any chance of that happening IMO. I'm pullin for the snow maps shared to have some merit, would be great, but count me out for part 1. Part 2 has been rather consistently modeled for some time now, and the anafrontal snow/snow shower deal looks legit for many. Beyond that and parsing over the ensembles was a real debby, and it may take a while for the "reload" to happen. Oh well. Im done with models they are not accurate at all when we need them to be lol. 4-6 days out major snow with cold. but in one model run it goes from costal to lake cutter thats a complete joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'm just not feeling this one. I was hoping for more spacing between the 2 systems which would give the coastal/Thurs event a better chance for front end loving, but the cutter is close enough to screw it up and put a wreckin ball to any chance of that happening IMO. I'm pullin for the snow maps shared to have some merit, would be great, but count me out for part 1. Part 2 has been rather consistently modeled for some time now, and the anafrontal snow/snow shower deal looks legit for many. Beyond that and parsing over the ensembles was a real debby, and it may take a while for the "reload" to happen. Oh well. The Lancaster & Lebanon crew will like the 3k NAM at 6z. Most of this is from the back end for Harrisburg, York, Lancaster this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Ruin said: Im done with models they are not accurate at all when we need them to be lol. 4-6 days out major snow with cold. but in one model run it goes from costal to lake cutter thats a complete joke Lol…It might be time for you to take a break….check back in here in a few weeks…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Lancaster & Lebanon crew will like the 3k NAM at 6z. Most of this is from the back end for Harrisburg, York, Lancaster this run. yeah there's definitely a decent shot at white christmas for some/many. Prob down here is that we will be warmed up at the surface and timing of best anafrontal snows will likely be during the fropa and we may lose precious stickage. Point im getting at is that for us SE'rs the window is rather small for it to work. It sure can, but I'm keeping expectations in check and hoping for the festivus miracle from Mo Nature. At the minimum, most if not all of us should see flakes flyin at the right time of year. Just not sure that it add's up to more than a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol…It might be time for you to take a break….check back in here in a few weeks…. With all due respect, I'm not sure he ever got started.... This is a tough sport. No denying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: yeah there's definitely a decent shot at white christmas for some/many. Prob down here is that we will be warmed up at the surface and timing of best anafrontal snows will likely be during the fropa and we may lose precious stickage. Point im getting at is that for us SE'rs the window is rather small for it to work. It sure can, but I'm keeping expectations in check and hoping for the festivus miracle from Mo Nature. At the minimum, most if not all of us should see flakes flyin at the right time of year. Just not sure that it add's up to more than a dusting. There should be sudden rapid temperature drop as soon as that front crosses. It won’t take much to whiten up the ground and keep it for Christmas with the frigid temps. I am hoping for a solid dusting to remain for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Here is a snapshot of my worry blizz. Prior panel shows transition time, and this is our anafrontal "window" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 6z short range Canadian RGEM likes front end snow for most outside of Lancaster (unfortunately…. I am rooting for you guys to score!} Not much of anything on the back end this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 eastern 1/2 of state would be dusting to 1 or 2" (except normal elevation winners.) Im putting a sugar plum fairy frosting of snow as my win bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Here is a snapshot of my worry blizz. Prior panel shows transition time, and this is our anafrontal "window" of snow. It’s time for the high res 3k NAM in this scenario…see my post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 The high res Canadian short range HRDPS only goes out to 48 hours, so it does not go out to the back end time range. It does like the front end for I-81 west & north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: There should be sudden rapid temperature drop as soon as that front crosses. It won’t take much to whiten up the ground and keep it for Christmas with the frigid temps. I am hoping for a solid dusting to remain for Christmas. Yeah I understand how they work, but as others have stated, while they CAN work, many times we get a brief burst (to whiten ground) and many times can see the clearing already coming off to out west. Trust me when I say I'm pulling for it to happen for all of us, but anafrontal snows are really tough SE of the blue mtn. History supports that despite what the models show. Whitening of the ground is a reasonable guess, but it has far more bust potential IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Yeah I understand how they work, but as others have stated, while they CAN work, many times we get a brief burst (to whiten ground) and many times can see the clearing already coming off to out west. Trust me when I say I'm pulling for it to happen for all of us, but anafrontal snows are really tough SE of the blue mtn. History supports that despite what the models show. Whitening of the ground is a reasonable guess, but it has far more bust potential IMO. This is no ordinary cold front. I think that GFS run last night was crazy & not happening. I think a dusting to solid coating is in play for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 338 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 PAZ025-026-034>036-212300- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.221222T1000Z-221222T2000Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Bedford, McConnellsburg, and Chambersburg 338 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Blair, Huntingdon, Bedford, Fulton and Franklin Counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM to 3 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute and holiday travel. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wintry mix should transition to rain during the mid to late afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 338 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 PAZ025-026-034>036-212300- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.221222T1000Z-221222T2000Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Bedford, McConnellsburg, and Chambersburg 338 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Blair, Huntingdon, Bedford, Fulton and Franklin Counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM to 3 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute and holiday travel. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wintry mix should transition to rain during the mid to late afternoon. ALEET! Just for @Bubbler86 & @MAG5035 at this time. Perhaps more counties later on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 56 minutes ago, Ruin said: Im done with models they are not accurate at all when we need them to be lol. 4-6 days out major snow with cold. but in one model run it goes from costal to lake cutter thats a complete joke See ya at 12Z! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Happy Winter Solstice everyone! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Low of 19 in Marysville this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: See ya at 12Z! Which is only a couple hours for Prince HRRR. Love to wake up to the smell of "this model is a shit model or that model is a shit model". Thanks, Canderson, LOL At least this time it was not the model showing only rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 16 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 MDT is running -0.9 in temps for the month to date. We have had issues with placement of features, timing and storm track….but cold air has not been the issue this month for the lack of snow thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 35 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: ALEET! Just for @Bubbler86 & @MAG5035 at this time. Perhaps more counties later on? Cheer up @Bubbler86 You are under an ALEET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Cheer up @Bubbler86 You are under an ALEET! I am not sad. LOL. 19 and super frosty this AM. Looks like it snowed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Congrats to everyone taking on the word anafrontal. The spell checker does not like it but also does not like the word if you add an L after the second A, which I accidentally did a couple years ago, and got jokingly reamed by several for the faux pas! I now skip that word. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 55 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: See ya at 12Z! well played. We are all suckers for model runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 44 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: MDT is running -0.9 in temps for the month to date. We have had issues with placement of features, timing and storm track….but cold air has not been the issue this month for the lack of snow thus far. Was thinking that very thing the last couple days. Despite the no snow part, it really has been a rather normal winter with enough cold around. Like you said, we just have some of the other right parts in the wrong places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Balmy 19 this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Wind headlines coming soon for everyone here for gusts 40-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I'm also going to add that while there is no good looking snow threats other than our analfrontal event (that was funny), it really isnt a dumpster fire look either as we move beyond Christmas. PNA headed positive should help with keeping ridging out west NAO still negative AO still negative - both of these keep the cold close here in the east MJO low amp thru 5/6 (low amp is not an overwhelming signal, but after the novel I wrote yesterday-gonna keep an eye on it as that may be enough to continue to screw things up for us) Boiled down, its no blockbuster drool worthy pattern, but not necessarily a shutout deal either. Going to keep a casual eye on things and hope something pops up. As we are entering peak climo for snow/stickage, something is still possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Wind headlines coming soon for everyone here for gusts 40-60. Better secure your trash receptacles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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