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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good trends, hopefully 0z treats us well.

CTP is ramping things up a bit for Thursday and Friday. The temp swings will be wild as well.

Thursday
Snow likely before 10am, then rain and snow likely between 10am and 1pm, then rain after 1pm. High near 50. Light east wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 
Thursday Night
Rain. Low around 45. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. 
Friday
Rain showers before 10am, then rain and snow showers between 10am and 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1pm. High near 50. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Breezy.
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The nam trended away from a white front end for the Lsv.  Surprised.  Some snow but not much east of very far west Lsv.

Just depends on interaction of coastal and whether it strengthens IMO. Right now phasing doesn’t seem to allow much deepening or energy transfer.
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2 minutes ago, medmax said:


Just depends on interaction of coastal and whether it strengthens IMO. Right now phasing doesn’t seem to allow much deepening or energy transfer.

Back end is a big question mark but surprised the nam bucked the trend with the front end.  Change over to rain almost immediately for much of the Lsv.  Western Cumberland country went from 4-6 to 1-2.  

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

RGEM is a shit model, don’t ever forget that. 

That said the 0z GFS gives MDT a good 7” via kuchera (and up to 9” put in MAG land) with the anafrontal. I don’t believe it but it’s there. Just as the NAM gives us none.  

Why is this even a model then

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Hey guys...I've been entertaining myself looking at the 0Z GFS data.  There's so much interesting stuff to see with this storm.  The run keeps getting colder Friday afternoon and evening with temps in the 40's at 7AM as the front approaches (and passes through MDT between 9 and 10AM) crashing all the way down to 5 to 10 degrees by 7pm.  Wind chills drop below zero by mid afternoon, reaching their coldest of between 10 and 15 BELOW for LSV straight through Saturday afternoon, and do not rise above zero F until Sunday afternoon.  I don't know if I can remember experiencing below zero wind chills continuously for 36+ hours before.

Finally, as you will see below in this snow map, there is an explosion of snow between MDT and LNS behind the cold front that delivers 9 inches to MDT and 6" to LNS with western Lanco exceeding 10" in spots.  This is using Kuchera which given the frigid temps would likely reflect amounts more accurately.  I know the map will change again in 6 hours, but it's still pretty neat to look at potential...

snku_024h.us_ne.png

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2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

 

I'm just not feeling this one.  I was hoping for more spacing between the 2 systems which would give the coastal/Thurs event a better chance for front end loving, but the cutter is close enough to screw it up and put a wreckin ball to any chance of that happening IMO.

I'm pullin for the snow maps shared to have some merit, would be great, but count me out for part 1. 

Part 2 has been rather consistently modeled for some time now, and the anafrontal snow/snow shower deal looks legit for many.  Beyond that and parsing over the ensembles was a real debby, and it may take a while for the "reload" to happen.  Oh well.

 

 

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