GrandmasterB Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 18z Euro was nice for the front end for the LSV from Harrisburg & York on west. Thanks for posting! Looks east again. First time it got more than .1 to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 0Z HRRR has most of the LSV in the game for front end satisfaction...even if green here it has been trending East each run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 0Z HRRR has most of the LSV in the game for front end satisfaction...even if green here it has been trending East each run. Good trends, hopefully 0z treats us well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 If it doesn't wash away the temps mid 50s it will melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Good trends, hopefully 0z treats us well. CTP is ramping things up a bit for Thursday and Friday. The temp swings will be wild as well. Thursday Snow likely before 10am, then rain and snow likely between 10am and 1pm, then rain after 1pm. High near 50. Light east wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Night Rain. Low around 45. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Friday Rain showers before 10am, then rain and snow showers between 10am and 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1pm. High near 50. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Ruin said: If it doesn't wash away the temps mid 50s it will melt We will get some more snow on the back end once the front moves through & puts us in the freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: We will get some more snow on the back end once the front moves through & puts us in the freezer. We MIGHT get snow on the back end. I would certainly not say it's a done deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: We MIGHT get snow on the back end. I would certainly not say it's a done deal. Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: We MIGHT get snow on the back end. I would certainly not say it's a done deal. I’m feeling good about at least a dusting for most of us after the front. Some lucky spots could get a little more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m feeling good about at least a dusting for most of us after the front. Some lucky spots could get a little more. I’m kinda in between about post frontal snow. I hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Sigh, for those out in West LSV I saw Ma's General store burnt down. Sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 This is gonna trend white Christmas. Calling it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, medmax said: This is gonna trend white Christmas. Calling it now. The nam trended away from a white front end for the Lsv. Surprised. Some snow but not much east of very far west Lsv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The nam trended away from a white front end for the Lsv. Surprised. Some snow but not much east of very far west Lsv.Back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The nam trended away from a white front end for the Lsv. Surprised. Some snow but not much east of very far west Lsv.Just depends on interaction of coastal and whether it strengthens IMO. Right now phasing doesn’t seem to allow much deepening or energy transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 System seems to have cut back out in the Midwest quite a lot in some regions. Wonder if it ultimately won’t get as low pressure as we saw late yesterday and earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, medmax said: Just depends on interaction of coastal and whether it strengthens IMO. Right now phasing doesn’t seem to allow much deepening or energy transfer. The Euro, RGEM & HRRR all have the front end snow slightly further east Ethan the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, medmax said: Just depends on interaction of coastal and whether it strengthens IMO. Right now phasing doesn’t seem to allow much deepening or energy transfer. Back end is a big question mark but surprised the nam bucked the trend with the front end. Change over to rain almost immediately for much of the Lsv. Western Cumberland country went from 4-6 to 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Sigh, for those out in West LSV I saw Ma's General store burnt down. Sucks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: The owner was just on. The building was on fire with people in it. She lost it all. I really liked that place. Big loss for Littlestown/Gettysburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 0z RGEM brings the best run yet for front end snow for the LSV. @paweather & @Itstrainingtime will even approve of this run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z RGEM brings the best run yet for front end snow for the LSV. @paweather & @Itstrainingtime will even approve of this run! It did not back down at all. Still surprised the nam did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z RGEM brings the best run yet for front end snow for the LSV. @paweather & @Itstrainingtime will even approve of this run! Wow can’t get excited yet but damn that’s 6” for me. Even though it will wash away I will love to see the snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 RGEM is a shit model, don’t ever forget that. That said the 0z GFS gives MDT a good 7” via kuchera (and up to 9” put in MAG land) with the anafrontal. I don’t believe it but it’s there. Just as the NAM gives us none. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, canderson said: RGEM is a shit model, don’t ever forget that. That said the 0z GFS gives MDT a good 7” via kuchera (and up to 9” put in MAG land) with the anafrontal. I don’t believe it but it’s there. Just as the NAM gives us none. Why is this even a model then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Hey guys...I've been entertaining myself looking at the 0Z GFS data. There's so much interesting stuff to see with this storm. The run keeps getting colder Friday afternoon and evening with temps in the 40's at 7AM as the front approaches (and passes through MDT between 9 and 10AM) crashing all the way down to 5 to 10 degrees by 7pm. Wind chills drop below zero by mid afternoon, reaching their coldest of between 10 and 15 BELOW for LSV straight through Saturday afternoon, and do not rise above zero F until Sunday afternoon. I don't know if I can remember experiencing below zero wind chills continuously for 36+ hours before. Finally, as you will see below in this snow map, there is an explosion of snow between MDT and LNS behind the cold front that delivers 9 inches to MDT and 6" to LNS with western Lanco exceeding 10" in spots. This is using Kuchera which given the frigid temps would likely reflect amounts more accurately. I know the map will change again in 6 hours, but it's still pretty neat to look at potential... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Here is the 0z Euro. Most is from the front end potential this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 0z Euro. Most is from the front end potential this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I'm just not feeling this one. I was hoping for more spacing between the 2 systems which would give the coastal/Thurs event a better chance for front end loving, but the cutter is close enough to screw it up and put a wreckin ball to any chance of that happening IMO. I'm pullin for the snow maps shared to have some merit, would be great, but count me out for part 1. Part 2 has been rather consistently modeled for some time now, and the anafrontal snow/snow shower deal looks legit for many. Beyond that and parsing over the ensembles was a real debby, and it may take a while for the "reload" to happen. Oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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