paweather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Very colorful: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I have used up my snow map allotment for the day but the 18Z Nam 12 and 3K made a big adjustment toward the EC, Rgem, HRRR and GFS as to 12 and 18Z models. Measurable east to Harrisburg now for front end Northwestern parts of the LSV have more than 6 hours of snow. Temps on the Nam are close enough to freezing to suggest we may have some school issues with that depiction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Very colorful: I have relatives who moved from here to northern Wyoming last year (what were they thinking?). Their forecast low is -28 Wednesday night and a Wind Chill Warning with values down to -50. It's cool to experience weather extremes but, um, no. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Festus said: I have relatives who moved from here to northern Wyoming last year (what were they thinking?). Their forecast low is -28 Wednesday night and a Wind Chill Warning with values down to -50. It's cool to experience weather extremes but, um, no. LOL. Yep the snow extreme yes the temp extremes NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 49 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Agreed on a lot of what you stated. Yeah one of the old rules was to watch where a storm hits the Pac, as that would often be a precursor to where it exits the east coast. In this case that's not really applicable though. As I'm reflecting regarding the MJO, the only thing sticks in my crawl is that while it that while we are in low amplitude P2 right now, if one couples that with the other indicies, easy conversation would have argued for a better result that we are currently starting at. Obviously this aint easy. When I made my prognostication a while back regarding the potentially better times, I most definitely considered the low amp 8/1/2 and thought that when factored into AO NAO and rising PNA, it argued for a ridge west trough east deal. Late last week some were sharing "ridge too far W" and that was going to muck up our pattern here in the east w/ trough into central basin and not further east. Unless I missed it (dont think I did though), I saw little on Ens guidance suggesting this scenario as toughing was shown further east. I guess someone has some tool that I dont know about (or as you state, better pattern recognition skills) than most of us that were thinking better times ahead. Maybe a higher amp 8/1/2 is now needed as we enter this new regime. That in my mind makes some sense and I'll stowe that away next time things look more favorable. agree 8.5 would be perfect, especially if really amp high and returning but when the hell have I ever seen that that last time? Before Covid LOL? Of course in a fading La Nina pattern, look to late Feb into March for the possible heavy snow events. The La Nina year 1993 storm brings back memories of a triple phaser. 1985 is the best analogy for this years weather pattern. Had record breaking cold snap too. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/climaterisks/years/top24enso.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_North_American_cold_wave https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/allentown/most-yearly-snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, paweather said: LOL. Yep the snow extreme yes the temp extremes NO. The paweather 492 Line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, paweather said: Very colorful: NWS Buffalo talking about "paralyzing blizzard" in their area later this week - this area is already over 100" for the season. They're in line for multiple feet of snow along with winds up to 70mph. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: NWS Buffalo talking about "paralyzing blizzard" in their area later this week - this area is already over 100" for the season. They're in line for multiple feet of snow along with winds up to 70mph. Just give me a quarter of that I would be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, paweather said: Just give me a quarter of that I would be happy. Who are you kidding? We’ll take our 4-6” and just like our wives do….like it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Who are you kidding? We’ll take our 4-6” and just like our wives do….like it. Don’t brag - it’s not nice to make @Atomixwx feel ashamed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 That LES slated for BUF will be chase worthy. To bad it’s Christmas and Christmas Eve.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I was in Cheektowaga NY this past weekend visiting a friend. Only picked up about 11” of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 NAM hits Central pretty hard with the pre frontal thing. Went east a little but beefed up totals quite a bit this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: NAM hits Central pretty hard with the pre frontal thing. Went east a little but beefed up totals quite a bit this run. Check out the rgem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Dang, check out the 18Z RGEM! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Thanks! I wanted so much to post but need to share the love. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Thanks! I wanted so much to post but need to share the love. Unfortunately, virtually no love on the back end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Unfortunately, virtually no love on the back end though. This forum is getting a bit too kinky for my liking... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Unfortunately, virtually no love on the back end though. Maybe tomorrow night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 46 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Only 44 hours out what could go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Rgem isn't that accurate right 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ruin said: Rgem isn't that accurate right It will wash away if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Thanks! I wanted so much to post but need to share the love. Lol…I’m not at my snow map limit for the day! The RGEM is sweet for the front end! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 It’s Canadian short range high res cousin the HRDPS is nice too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s Canadian short range high res cousin the HRDPS is nice too. We need to move this 40 miles to the east for our Lancaster/Lebanon crew! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: We need to move this 40 miles to the east for our Lancaster/Lebanon crew! Agreed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 18z Euro was nice for the front end for the LSV from Harrisburg & York on west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 18z Euro snow through the front end total by Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 18z Euro has some post front snow, but it doesn’t add much to the totals in the LSV. Here is the snow map for the entire event from & back combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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