Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[GrandmasterB]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

What about on the backend?

I didn’t look. The problem with being east of the mountains is you get the downsloping winds after a front. 19/20 times the post frontal stuff is brief and snow showery in nature and doesn’t amount to much even when the models show it run after run. 

[paweather]

8 minutes ago, anotherman said:

What about on the backend?

Backend:

[Bubbler86]

Here is the GFS 24 hour map as of Saturday 7AM (snow from 7AM Friday).  The scattered nature of it makes it a bit questionable. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

15 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I didn’t look. The problem with being east of the mountains is you get the downsloping winds after a front. 19/20 times the post frontal stuff is brief and snow showery in nature and doesn’t amount to much even when the models show it run after run. 

#facts

[pasnownut]

22 hours ago, Albedoman said:

The only thing that will break the fricking pattern we are in is the GOM opening up for business and at the same time a few clippers go on by.  Three years of this PA jet screaming by  is pissing off everyone now. Another  blown forecast for the LV  overcast and 31 degrees- was supposed to be sunny.  The La Nina has to relax in late January is our single chance of saving this winter. Wasted cold snaps by rain/mix and wind events is getting old. The only ones that will cash in on this ugly pattern is the Great lakes region for Lake effect snow as the lakes are not even frozen yet. What is strange is that we have very few true clippers in this crappy pattern. This is the 1980's all over again.

 

I wanted to respond to this yesterday but was on road, and my thumbs dont do well w/ tiny phone "keyboard."

Yes, we've been in a frustrating base state over the last couple of years w/ a default of storms heading for the midwest and not under and up the east coast.  

Like a couple here, my fun or "specialty" (and I use that jokingly and for fun), has been sniffing out patterns and times when things MAY work out for our region.  As you may have seen, there's been some "heat" thrown in/at me...especially when things haven't panned out as they COULD have.  One of the things I was keying on was the Enso/current NINA aoa 1.0ish and close to peak.  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf 

While I'm no met, I've been at this hobby long enough to be able to read through this and have a baseline understanding of the implications thereof. Yes some of it is still slightly above my pay grade , but I can parse through and get a feel for the implications thereof-knowing that as other factors (teleconnections) play in, no 2 pictures are alike as those influences fluctuate.   Furthermore many post in the ENSO thread and I peruse regularly as we approach winter, as I want to get a "feel" for where things are heading.  While the general consensus wasn't sure that this peak aoa 1.0 ish signal wasnt a great one, it also didn't necessarily mean that it was a kiss of death for us in the east.  As some have seen, there is much data to review and maps avail for folks to get an understanding how things flow during these times.  This is one example of disco and maps suggesting what the base state may look like when factoring other drivers like PNA/AO/NAO.  https://www.weather.gov/iwx/la_nina.  With all that in mind, one needs to do a blend of all signals...especially when no one indicator was seeming to take the wheel and drive the snow train.  We currently are in a negative phase of BOTH AO and NAO, and with the ENSO on high end low/low end mod, there (in my mind) was no reason to write off the tellies at -2-3.0 states as they can sometimes be stout enough to POTENTIALLY offset/mute other factors.  I refer all to the hyperlinks above to review what said base state SHOULD look like when the indicies line up as they are. 

Last thing to factor in was the MJO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

I'm a big fan of using tellies as benchmarks for where things may be headed (knowing that some lead times ie. NAO often have short ones and others are more stable/predictable.  MJO is currently coming out of 2 and was briefly low amplitude 8/1/2 (which typically is the money panels for the east/snow lovers).  As we are now looking to head to less favorable phases of 4/5/6, that normally suggest that more maritime influence will warm us here in the east.  

Taking all of the above as a snapshot, this is why some of us went into this current period with a little more optimism than normal.  It had little to do w/ the horrid winter we had down here last year or wishcasting....but then again....,maybe it did.     

While these are largely my thoughts and mine alone (despite some reading of ENSO thread and correlations to pattern from a 10,000 ft  view), what has become more obvious is that even if ENSO state is not overwhelming....it is a significant driver and one that probably should get more weight by me/others.  I'd also wager that conversations/disco would come from both sides of the aisles from those more knowledgable that myself/others.  Depite the warm crew "winning", it could have gone the other way.

Sharing for you (or any) that was trying to get a feel for why I was a big more optimistic about upcoming period.  I also often share my reasoning with maps or other info to add credibility to my disco/conversations as that's why I'm here.  Obviously it didn't work out and others were suggesting that pros weren't feeling it-which is fine...as they were right...but that doesn't really add to conversation/dialog and why some of us are here. That's why they get paid what they do, but I know I'm nowhere near alone in where some of us thought things may have been headed.

If you or others have thoughts/opinions, It'd be great to hear, but I wanted to put this out there so that folks didnt think I was merely "wishcasting".  

 

 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Great post and well thought out points.  

 

Not to detract from it but Fanny Sue?  LOL.  That got me laughing...is she single? 

I'm not sure - I sort of adapted that from the New England forum - they have an obsession with talking about their fannies. LOL

[paweather]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here is the GFS 24 hour map as of Saturday 7AM (snow from 7AM Friday).  The scattered nature of it makes it a bit questionable. 

 

That would be nice!

[pasnownut]

If the GFS has a clue and stays on que....Friday morning rush looks to be slowed a wee bit.  Hoping many are already off and will be sipping coffee w/ Irish Liquor in it like I might be. Anafrontal snows look to be holding steady.  As already suggested, downslopping likely takes some "fun" out of it down here in the piedmont, but we've seen fropas make it down here plenty enough to not discount what is being currently depicted.  Only caveat is that if the gfs bias of being a tad cold is in play, this map could look notably different here in the SE regions

[paweather]

CMC has the coastal back next week but misses us good trends though.

[Bubbler86]

I heard MU is starting to like Thur AM a bit and then saw this Rgem panel. Apologies if anyone posted.  

 

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

If the GFS has a clue and stays on que....Friday morning rush looks to be slowed a wee bit.  Hoping many are already off and will be sipping coffee w/ Irish Liquor in it like I might be. Anafrontal snows look to be holding steady.  As already suggested, downslopping likely takes some "fun" out of it down here in the piedmont, but we've seen fropas make it down here plenty enough to not discount what is being currently depicted.  Only caveat is that if the gfs bias of being a tad cold is in play, this map could look notably different here in the SE regions

@Bubbler86 am I crazy or is the wind a bit slack here - IE gusts just into the upper 40s only and sustained around 20 or so? Looks like that major element has jogged north a bit. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

@Bubbler86 am I crazy or is the wind a bit slack here - IE gusts just into the upper 40s only and sustained around 20 or so? Looks like that major element has jogged north a bit. 

This is the windiest panel I see on the GFS.  Windy but not anything we have not seen other times recently.  Almost due west being on the bottom of that GL Low's circulation. 

 

[pasnownut]

16 minutes ago, paweather said:

CMC has the coastal back next week but misses us good trends though.

saw that and only thing I'll add at this juncture, is that as the trough is starting to lift out at that timeframe, that a more norther correction isnt off the table IMO.  

We cant continue this run of cutter/suppression/cutter/suppression.  At some point something has to hit us.  

 

and while this post has some potential truth to it...........

 

ground truth is I'm wishcasting hard.....troll away.

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

saw that and only thing I'll add at this juncture, is that as the trough is starting to lift out at that timeframe, that a more norther correction isnt off the table IMO.  

We cant continue this run of cutter/suppression/cutter/suppression.  At some point something has to hit us.  

 

and while this post has some potential truth to it...........

 

ground truth is I'm wishcasting hard.....troll away.

I'm always wishcasting! LOL. 

[canderson]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This is the windiest panel I see on the GFS.  Windy but not anything we have not seen other times recently.  Almost due west being on the bottom of that GL Low's circulation. 

 

This is super helpful - thanks. Let’s hope this is all we get. Hell it was this windy basically yesterday ha. 
 

 

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

I'm always wishcasting! LOL. 

I'll take an optimist over a pessimist any and every day....

Even if reality is often skewed to the neg.  

 

Yours truely,

Realist 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, canderson said:

This is super helpful - thanks. Let’s hope this is all we get. Hell it was this windy basically yesterday ha. 
 

 

Those are sustained I believe but yea, not super bad.  On the subject of wind...on the GFS, the wind chills at MDT slip below 0 shortly after 1PM on Friday then stays below zero, peaking at -8, until Mid-Morning Christmas AM.   Those figures are the 10M/33 feet above ground temps. 

[Bubbler86]

EC front end.  Mostly Western LSV and west in the south moving east a bit as it moves north. 

 

[GrandmasterB]

14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

EC front end.  Mostly Western LSV and west in the south moving east a bit as it moves north. 

 

Shifted a bit east again from 0Z. Harrisburg gets measurable this run. The difference between yesterday’s 12Z and today’s is significant.

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Shifted a bit east again from 0Z. Harrisburg gets measurable this run. The difference between yesterday’s 12Z and today’s is significant.

Yep, definitely some momentum for front end today.  However, LSV temps still range from 40-50 post front end into Friday so wash away still there unfortunately.   Verbatim there are going to be some very icy areas in yards where rain puddles flash freeze.

[Bubbler86]

The next week wave forms quite far south and east and has no mechanism to move it northwest vs. North by North East on the Euro.   OTS.  But it does have the storm on the positive side.  Of interest though is almost the entire west coast raining under one front.

 

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The next week wave forms quite far south and has no mechanism to move it north on the Euro.   OTS.  Of interest though is almost the entire west coast raining under one front.

 

We're in DC next Tues and Wed so rest assured weather-wise something will happen to screw up that trip. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

We're in DC next Tues and Wed so rest assured weather-wise something will happen to screw up that trip. 

Maybe but the GFS and Euro are low 40's and pretty serene as of today.  CMC has the close call Wed. 

[Albedoman]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

I wanted to respond to this yesterday but was on road, and my thumbs dont do well w/ tiny phone "keyboard."

Yes, we've been in a frustrating base state over the last couple of years w/ a default of storms heading for the midwest and not under and up the east coast.  

Like a couple here, my fun or "specialty" (and I use that jokingly and for fun), has been sniffing out patterns and times when things MAY work out for our region.  As you may have seen, there's been some "heat" thrown in/at me...especially when things haven't panned out as they COULD have.  One of the things I was keying on was the Enso/current NINA aoa 1.0ish and close to peak.  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf 

While I'm no met, I've been at this hobby long enough to be able to read through this and have a baseline understanding of the implications thereof. Yes some of it is still slightly above my pay grade , but I can parse through and get a feel for the implications thereof-knowing that as other factors (teleconnections) play in, no 2 pictures are alike as those influences fluctuate.   Furthermore many post in the ENSO thread and I peruse regularly as we approach winter, as I want to get a "feel" for where things are heading.  While the general consensus wasn't sure that this peak aoa 1.0 ish signal wasnt a great one, it also didn't necessarily mean that it was a kiss of death for us in the east.  As some have seen, there is much data to review and maps avail for folks to get an understanding how things flow during these times.  This is one example of disco and maps suggesting what the base state may look like when factoring other drivers like PNA/AO/NAO.  https://www.weather.gov/iwx/la_nina.  With all that in mind, one needs to do a blend of all signals...especially when no one indicator was seeming to take the wheel and drive the snow train.  We currently are in a negative phase of BOTH AO and NAO, and with the ENSO on high end low/low end mod, there (in my mind) was no reason to write off the tellies at -2-3.0 states as they can sometimes be stout enough to POTENTIALLY offset/mute other factors.  I refer all to the hyperlinks above to review what said base state SHOULD look like when the indicies line up as they are. 

Last thing to factor in was the MJO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

I'm a big fan of using tellies as benchmarks for where things may be headed (knowing that some lead times ie. NAO often have short ones and others are more stable/predictable.  MJO is currently coming out of 2 and was briefly low amplitude 8/1/2 (which typically is the money panels for the east/snow lovers).  As we are now looking to head to less favorable phases of 4/5/6, that normally suggest that more maritime influence will warm us here in the east.  

Taking all of the above as a snapshot, this is why some of us went into this current period with a little more optimism than normal.  It had little to do w/ the horrid winter we had down here last year or wishcasting....but then again....,maybe it did.     

While these are largely my thoughts and mine alone (despite some reading of ENSO thread and correlations to pattern from a 10,000 ft  view), what has become more obvious is that even if ENSO state is not overwhelming....it is a significant driver and one that probably should get more weight by me/others.  I'd also wager that conversations/disco would come from both sides of the aisles from those more knowledgable that myself/others.  Depite the warm crew "winning", it could have gone the other way.

Sharing for you (or any) that was trying to get a feel for why I was a big more optimistic about upcoming period.  I also often share my reasoning with maps or other info to add credibility to my disco/conversations as that's why I'm here.  Obviously it didn't work out and others were suggesting that pros weren't feeling it-which is fine...as they were right...but that doesn't really add to conversation/dialog and why some of us are here. That's why they get paid what they do, but I know I'm nowhere near alone in where some of us thought things may have been headed.

If you or others have thoughts/opinions, It'd be great to hear, but I wanted to put this out there so that folks didnt think I was merely "wishcasting".  

 

 

 

 

the MJO is also my favorite tellie.  This MJO demonstrates to  me how the pac ocean is performing which IMHO is the main driver of most of our weather.  A MJO of 4-6 is telling me that the thread the needle storm events are our only chance of a good snowstorm as the pattern really is dogging it for KU storms.  Relying on a -NAO or -AO is too much reliance for me when hoping for a major winter storm to appear out of nowhere.

My philosophy has always been what latitude the storm hits the west coast is approximately where it will exit on the east coast. Before we had a dozen weather models/tellies, that was the main driver of longer than 5 day forecasting with some sort of accuracy. Yes, there was a hiccup, when a secondary low forms of the SE coast or another one forms in the GOM but coincidentally that is when we get hammered here with a major storm. As I said before, Miller A's out of the GOM have been extremely rare in the last 5-10 years. Until we see the trough dig down toward Texas or a hallmark bench low  forms and come out of the 4 corners area, we are screwed for decent snow events here.  Until I see LR range 10-15 day models come in with these scenarios, I will be very skeptical of any snow events for us.  This thread the needle crap for each winter storm event is becoming very tiresome indeed for everyone.

[paweather]

5 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

the MJO is also my favorite tellie.  This MJO demonstrates to  me how the pac ocean is performing which IMHO is the main driver of most of our weather.  A MJO of 4-6 is telling me that the thread the needle storm events are our only chance of a good snowstorm as the pattern really is dogging it for KU storms.  Relying on a -NAO or -AO is too much reliance for me when hoping for a major winter storm to appear out of nowhere.

My philosophy has always been what latitude the storm hits the west coast is approximately where it will exit on the east coast. Before we had a dozen weather models/tellies, that was the main driver of longer than 5 day forecasting with some sort of accuracy. Yes, there was a hiccup, when a secondary low forms of the SE coast or another one forms in the GOM but coincidentally that is when we get hammered here with a major storm. As I said before, Miller A's out of the GOM have been extremely rare in the last 5-10 years. Until we see the trough dig down toward Texas or a hallmark bench low  forms and come out of the 4 corners area, we are screwed for decent snow events here.  Until I see LR range 10-15 day models come in with these scenarios, I will be very skeptical of any snow events for us.  This thread the needle crap for each winter storm event is becoming very tiresome indeed for everyone.

Miller A's have really become non-existence. Everything is typically a Miller B and depending upon where the transfer occurs it is the key to a B. But we don't really fair out to where either with a B. And there are hardly any clipper systems anymore.  We used to have a ton of those in the past winters but no more. 

[Bubbler86]

14 minutes ago, paweather said:

Miller A's have really become non-existence. Everything is typically a Miller B and depending upon where the transfer occurs it is the key to a B. But we don't really fair out to where either with a B. And there are hardly any clipper systems anymore.  We used to have a ton of those in the past winters but no more. 

I think we get some MIller A's each winter however they mostly coincide with environmental conditions that are too warm for a true wall to wall snowstorm here.  Sort of adds to the complexity of the issue in that very cold temps here are almost always brought on by deep troughs that work to guide the A's off to our south.  We have had a few situations recently where a low came out of the Southeast and stayed to our East, but the cold was fleeting and shallow.  It is why the MA LR thread is always blocking,   blocking, blocking. 

[Bubbler86]

Super late nooners....41.  Mentioning because that is a pretty healthy 20 degree rise from this AM. 

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

the MJO is also my favorite tellie.  This MJO demonstrates to  me how the pac ocean is performing which IMHO is the main driver of most of our weather.  A MJO of 4-6 is telling me that the thread the needle storm events are our only chance of a good snowstorm as the pattern really is dogging it for KU storms.  Relying on a -NAO or -AO is too much reliance for me when hoping for a major winter storm to appear out of nowhere.

My philosophy has always been what latitude the storm hits the west coast is approximately where it will exit on the east coast. Before we had a dozen weather models/tellies, that was the main driver of longer than 5 day forecasting with some sort of accuracy. Yes, there was a hiccup, when a secondary low forms of the SE coast or another one forms in the GOM but coincidentally that is when we get hammered here with a major storm. As I said before, Miller A's out of the GOM have been extremely rare in the last 5-10 years. Until we see the trough dig down toward Texas or a hallmark bench low  forms and come out of the 4 corners area, we are screwed for decent snow events here.  Until I see LR range 10-15 day models come in with these scenarios, I will be very skeptical of any snow events for us.  This thread the needle crap for each winter storm event is becoming very tiresome indeed for everyone.

Agreed on a lot of what you stated.  Yeah one of the old rules was to watch where a storm hits the Pac, as that would often be a precursor to where it exits the east coast.  In this case that's not really applicable though. 

As I'm reflecting regarding the MJO, the only thing sticks in my crawl is that while it that while we are in low amplitude P2 right now, if one couples that with the other indicies, easy conversation would have argued for a better result that we are currently starting at.  Obviously this aint easy. 

When I made my prognostication a while back regarding the potentially better times, I most definitely considered the low amp 8/1/2 and thought that when factored into AO NAO and rising PNA, it argued for a ridge west trough east deal.  Late last week some were sharing "ridge too far W" and that was going to muck up our pattern here in the east w/ trough into central basin and not further east.  Unless I missed it (dont think I did though), I saw little on Ens guidance suggesting this scenario as toughing was shown further east.  I guess someone has some tool that I dont know about (or as you state, better pattern recognition skills) than most of us that were thinking better times ahead.  Maybe a higher amp 8/1/2 is now needed as we enter this new regime.  That in my mind makes some sense and I'll stowe that away next time things look more favorable.    

[paweather]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Super late nooners....41.  Mentioning because that is a pretty healthy 20 degree rise from this AM. 

I forgot again  38 and sunny. 

[Bubbler86]

Take it or leave it but it is fairly close to the Euro depiction though not quite as far east...the HRRR's first volley into the front-end forecast.  Would not trust the totals but coverage might be a good indicator.   Snow is not done in West Central and North Central at this point.