Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Weather not sports report - snowing in Orchard Park NY.

The lack of weather posts suggests the results of model runs.

[Rd9108]

I'll post the same thing I did in the pittsburgh thread 

 

12z

0z

I bet there maybe some ensembles that atleast give some of your central PA posters some hope 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The lack of weather posts suggests the results of model runs.

AC Watches up for late week!

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I'll post the same thing I did in the pittsburgh thread 

 

12z

0z

I bet there maybe some ensembles that atleast give some of your central PA posters some hope 

I went from a heavy dusting at 12z to a very light dusting at 0z. LOL 

[Rd9108]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I went from a heavy dusting at 12z to a very light dusting at 0z. LOL 

Hey the heavier axis shifted east though lol. 

[canderson]

If we miss this 22-24 window we might end the season at MDT worse than the disaster that was last season. January I think will be a huge warm bust. 

[Bubbler86]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

AC Watches up for late week!

What is the official last date you have done your snow mow?   

[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Hey the heavier axis shifted east though lol. 

Yes, the front end has been improving the last couple of model runs for frozen precip.

Here is the 0z Canadian & GFS

[Ruin]

I'm just disgusted lol

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the. 0z GFS snow map 

[Blizzard of 93]

I think the initial coastal has the chance to improve our snow chances at the beginning of the event. High pressure in eastern Canada plus the main low still developing way to the west could allow a nice front end opportunity.

Here is the 0z GFS & Canadian 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

What is the official last date you have done your snow mow?   

That, I do not know. But I don't ever remember not seeing so much as a flake by the end of December. I'm hoping to not make history this year.

[Ruin]

8 hours ago, pasnownut said:

dont see that on any maps that I'm looking at.  Solid week of cold to follow next weeks grinch stole our white christmas storm

 

they no longer have it but around 5am6am yesterday they had me in the 40s most likely was changed some point today 

[Bubbler86]

4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That, I do not know. But I don't ever remember not seeing so much as a flake by the end of December. I'm hoping to not make history this year.

I have already shoveled 2 feet of pattern off my driveway.

[pasnownut]

5 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Hey the heavier axis shifted east though lol. 

You can add the CMC to that camp as well.  Notable shift away from severe cutter and now into Ohio Valley and transfers further east.  Still not a good setup verbatim, but its not quite as ugly as there is some front and back end loving.

 

 

[MAG5035]

Overnight model runs had actually bumped east some in the case of the GFS and Canadian, both having Apps runner solutions right through PA. Euro maintained its deep low to the Lakes and new 6z GFS has went back that way as well. An Apps runner doesn’t really suit us much better and in fact would probably slot us from anything related to the frontal passage/back end (esp LSV). What everything does have at this point is snow/mixed associated with the initial wave that develops on Thursday. This feature will have high support via 1035-1040ish high in Quebec, which will be retreating but would likely be enough for a period of accumulating snow/ice over a good portion of C-PA. Interior counties would be favored, but most or all of the LSV could get it too. 

The Euro continues to be the best looking model with the anafrontal feature associated with the frontal passage. I get that those scenarios are a hard thing to turn to real snow on the ground, especially in the LSV but this is one of those scenarios that should deliver at least a couple hours of snowfall behind the front. Modeled temps in H-burg (via Euro) go from 41 at 15z Friday to 26ºF at 18z and well into the teens by dark. The cold isn’t going to be screwing around. So I think there’s a decent chance of picking up an inch or two at least. Then there’s the whole flash freeze part of that as well. Still lots to sort out with that system as a whole. Can this main shortwave still end back up getting to the coast or coastal plain below our latitude? I doubt it at this point but not going to completely rule that out. Right now this looks like a pretty significant snowstorm for the Ohio Valley folks. 

Didn’t have time yesterday but wanted to touch on the pattern after this major weather system gets through. Christmas is going to be very cold for sure, and it will remain fairly cold for at least the first half of the following week between Christmas and New Years. Unfortunately, I see the pattern moderating for us and well a big portion of the CONUS before New Years. We neutralize but don’t lose the -NAO/AO but models all prog a major swing of the notably -EPO at present to an equally notable positive EPO by Christmas and especially later that week. Models have also been showing signs of moving the MJO through 4-5-6 during that week (likely not a coincidence with regards to the EPO going +). Given the NAO/AO still staying somewhat negative and the PNA actually being positive, we might keep a mean trough over the eastern US but the +EPO changes the source region of air to a more Pacific origin. So we might not torch…but it’s definitely going to warm up. I think the good thing about this is it appears that we could set up the MJO to be in favorable phases getting into January and as long as any pattern doesn’t bog down in 4-5-6, we’ll have chances. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Overnight model runs had actually bumped east some in the case of the GFS and Canadian, both having Apps runner solutions right through PA. Euro maintained its deep low to the Lakes and new 6z GFS has went back that way as well. An Apps runner doesn’t really suit us much better and in fact would probably slot us from anything related to the frontal passage/back end (esp LSV). What everything does have at this point is snow/mixed associated with the initial wave that develops on Thursday. This feature will have high support via 1035-1040ish high in Quebec, which will be retreating but would likely be enough for a period of accumulating snow/ice over a good portion of C-PA. Interior counties would be favored, but most or all of the LSV could get it too. 

The Euro continues to be the best looking model with the anafrontal feature associated with the frontal passage. I get that those scenarios are a hard thing to turn to real snow on the ground, especially in the LSV but this is one of those scenarios that should deliver at least a couple hours of snowfall behind the front. Modeled temps in H-burg (via Euro) go from 41 at 15z Friday to 26ºF at 18z and well into the teens by dark. The cold isn’t going to be screwing around. So I think there’s a decent chance of picking up an inch or two at least. Then there’s the whole flash freeze part of that as well. Still lots to sort out with that system as a whole. Can this main shortwave still end back up getting to the coast or coastal plain below our latitude? I doubt it at this point but not going to completely rule that out. Right now this looks like a pretty significant snowstorm for the Ohio Valley folks. 

Didn’t have time yesterday but wanted to touch on the pattern after this major weather system gets through. Christmas is going to be very cold for sure, and it will remain fairly cold for at least the first half of the following week between Christmas and New Years. Unfortunately, I see the pattern moderating for us and well a big portion of the CONUS before New Years. We neutralize but don’t lose the -NAO/AO but models all prog a major swing of the notably -EPO at present to an equally notable positive EPO by Christmas and especially later that week. Models have also been showing signs of moving the MJO through 4-5-6 during that week (likely not a coincidence with regards to the EPO going +). Given the NAO/AO still staying somewhat negative and the PNA actually being positive, we might keep a mean trough over the eastern US but the +EPO changes the source region of air to a more Pacific origin. So we might not torch…but it’s definitely going to warm up. I think the good thing about this is it appears that we could set up the MJO to be in favorable phases getting into January and as long as any pattern doesn’t bog down in 4-5-6, we’ll have chances. 

Thanks Mag.  On this note, the latest Icon, notoriously stingy on snow, has WWA level event for the Western LSV and true South Centra PA with the first wave.    The areas that see snow actually do not see much rain afterwards as they are dry slotted. An area of 2-4" of rain moves up through Eastern PA.   The CFS continues to signal this area of snow will also be a bit more east than modeled by the normal Globals as of now. 

 

 

[WmsptWx]

Sooooo. Winter cancel? Lol

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[Blizzard of 93]

10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Sooooo. Winter cancel? Lol

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Lol, yes cancel it!

We go through this every year. A few bad model runs & a few people on here jump off of the cliff and think it will never ever snow again! It’s the middle of December!

 

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GFS likes the front end snow idea for Thursday for most of us.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 6z GFS through Christmas Eve am

[Bubbler86]

Wow, the MA LR thread is taking this situation on the chops.   Blow up the pattern, Mid-January, etc...

 

Too high counting on patterns and too low in giving up quickly. 

[paweather]

It was great to watch that 4th quarter last night thank you Mother Nature!!!

[Cashtown_Coop]

19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wow, the MA LR thread is taking this situation on the chops.   Blow up the pattern, Mid-January, etc...

 

Too high counting on patterns and too low in giving up quickly. 

We know that many snow threats don’t pop up on models until 5 days and sometimes within 3 days so there’s no need to lose your cool.   There will be measurable snow on east coast before end of the year.   Give me the cold and I’ll take my chances.   

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

We know that many snow threats don’t pop up on models until 5 days and sometimes within 3 days so there’s no need to lose your cool.   There will be measurable snow on east coast before end of the year.   Give me the cold and I’ll take my chances.   

Agreed. I would reference this for the current situation. Many in the trough right now.    The "Gartner Hype Cycle"

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Agreed. I would reference this for the current situation. Many in the trough right now.    The "Gartner Hype Cycle"

 

Was this developed from watching the euro and GFS runs?

[medmax]

Just wanted to hop in here and say wow. What an odd early hit up here in state college. As some of you may remember my wife and I just moved from the Hershey/Hummelstown area last winter (had a home on the Swatara a couple nautical miles north of MDT).

Now live out on the western side of State College. The climo difference on this side of the ridges is incredible in p-type. We had about 3-4 inches of snow with much of that as sleet burden and my dad who lives in York and our friends down the street from where we lived before had mostly a rain event.

Had some nice mood snow yesterday to top things off.

[mahantango#1]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Agreed. I would reference this for the current situation:

 

Do you offer counseling services?

[medmax]

On the negative side, I’m sure we will miss out on coastal action now. The real thumps…

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Do you offer counseling services?

50 percent off for residents of pillow!