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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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26 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I'm in week #1 of fantasy playoffs. I have Jalen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Tua Tagovailoa, and Gabe Davis on my rosters. Tua is backup to Jalen Hurts, and Mostert is a backup to the Davis kid from Green Bay, but Davis and Waddle see time every week.

Except this one. My opponent has Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, and hopefully no clue.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Same here with week one and my opponent has Tua and waddle.  Not sure what to think about the game.

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6 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Waddle is relatively useless even in dry conditions. So expect him to go off tonight just to burn my ass.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Burn both our asses.  That damn waddle walk.   Still torn on Davis.  He has not had a good week in quite some time.

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29 minutes ago, paweather said:

Guess we take it so disappointing after an initial excitement of the GFS I hope this isn’t the lead way all of winter

How many times has this road been taken, though? So many storms 7-10 days out looked great, only to go bad prior to game time.

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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Sure does...

With that said, it is only Saturday.  Just like a HECS being shown now, a no go being shown can revert back.  Lots of twitter mets may throw it under the bus and say it is over but being a met that makes predicts a week out is guaranteed of one thing...being wrong a lot (no offense).  We can look at models as of now and make determinations based on what they show today but like the ensembles, just one small change in an environmental situation can butterfly effect itself into a totally different result 5 days from now. 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

With that said, it is only Saturday.  Just like a HECS being shown now, a no go being shown can revert back.  Lots of twitter mets may throw it under the bus and say it is over but being a met that makes predicts a week out is guaranteed of one thing...being wrong a lot (no offense).  We can look at models as of now and make determinations based on what they show today but like the ensembles, just one small change in an environmental situation can butterfly effect itself into a totally different result 5 days from now. 

This is true, but it seems to hold truer with out to sea solutions coming back to the coast. Over the years, it seemed more often than not, once they cut, they don't come back. 

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3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

This is true, but it seems to hold truer with out to sea solutions coming back to the coast. Over the years, it seemed more often than not, once they cut, they don't come back. 

My hope/thought on this one is that it is Miller/new formation type situation so too early to count it out.   If a low was forming in the heartland and cutting, yea it might be more clear.   Scanning through the 12Z GFS and watching the evolution, there are 3 areas of energy in play. 

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Well something had to give with this, during the 0z suite last night we had the GFS low in Cape Hatteras while the Euro/CMC had it in Michigan. Of course the GFS joins the party today cutting what looks like is going to be quite a strong storm. As was mentioned, western ridge axis is being progged too far west to allow for the coastal solution.

Barring any wholesale changes back the other way, I see two opportunities for frozen with this whole thing. Up front, where the GFS/Euro have been developing this wave on the coast in front of the main vigorous shortwave that becomes the big storm bringing precip into C-PA. This looked more like the Thur/Thur night timeframe. There will be decent high pressure (retreating) to the N and NE so anything associated with that may start as frozen, especially interior counties. Unfortunately with how things are being progged now with all 3 major models (with ensemble support), the vigorous shortwave digs and head towards the Lakes, which will draw up warmer air for a brief time (likely for about 12 hrs or so) sometime from Thur night into Friday. The second opportunity comes after the frontal passage, which looks like an anafrontal type scenario… something that could deliver snowfall for several hours behind the front. The cold air associated with this system will mean business and there looks to be rapid temp drops behind the front. Whatever gets on the ground from that will definitely be there come Christmas morning. 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well something had to give with this, during the 0z suite last night we had the GFS low in Cape Hatteras while the Euro/CMC had it in Michigan. Of course the GFS joins the party today cutting what looks like is going to be quite a strong storm. As was mentioned, western ridge axis is being progged too far west to allow for the coastal solution.

Barring any wholesale changes back the other way, I see two opportunities for frozen with this whole thing. Up front, where the GFS/Euro have been developing this wave on the coast in front of the main vigorous shortwave that becomes the big storm bringing precip into C-PA. There will be decent high pressure (retreating) to the N and NE so anything associated with that may start as frozen, especially interior counties. Unfortunately with how things are being progged now with all 3 major models (with ensemble support), the vigorous shortwave digs and head towards the Lakes, which will draw up warmer air for a brief time (likely for about 12 hrs or so). The second opportunity comes after the frontal passage, which looks like an anafrontal type scenario… something that could deliver snowfall for several hours behind the front. The cold air associated with this system will mean business and there looks to be rapid temp drops behind the front. Whatever gets on the ground from that will definitely be there come Christmas morning. 

The LSV does anafrontal snow like no ones business (not).   No offense to your thoughts....

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

My hope/thought on this one is that it is Miller/new formation type situation so too early to count it out.   If a low was forming in the heartland and cutting, yea it might be more clear.   Scanning through the 12Z GFS and watching the evolution, there are 3 areas of energy in play. 

This is a great point.  Many moving parts to dissect with this setup.

18z at 120 shows SLP forming in Gulf.  Wasnt there prior.  I suggested earlier that it didnt make sense to see the heartland cutter (in my mind).

I like that and think it may be a way to salvage this deal.  Guess we'll find out how it plays out in a little bit 

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6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well something had to give with this, during the 0z suite last night we had the GFS low in Cape Hatteras while the Euro/CMC had it in Michigan. Of course the GFS joins the party today cutting what looks like is going to be quite a strong storm. As was mentioned, western ridge axis is being progged too far west to allow for the coastal solution.

Barring any wholesale changes back the other way, I see two opportunities for frozen with this whole thing. Up front, where the GFS/Euro have been developing this wave on the coast in front of the main vigorous shortwave that becomes the big storm bringing precip into C-PA. This looked more like the Thur/Thur night timeframe. There will be decent high pressure (retreating) to the N and NE so anything associated with that may start as frozen, especially interior counties. Unfortunately with how things are being progged now with all 3 major models (with ensemble support), the vigorous shortwave digs and head towards the Lakes, which will draw up warmer air for a brief time (likely for about 12 hrs or so) sometime from Thur night into Friday. The second opportunity comes after the frontal passage, which looks like an anafrontal type scenario… something that could deliver snowfall for several hours behind the front. The cold air associated with this system will mean business and there looks to be rapid temp drops behind the front. Whatever gets on the ground from that will definitely be there come Christmas morning. 

thanks for the thoughts Mag.  I think what "got" some of us was 500's looking good regarding ridge/trough axis on some ens guidance, and the hope was (for me anyway) was for a correction towards them.

I'm gonna eat a little crow and say that the GFS ens guidance has trended away for coastal solutions and have gone towards the cmc/euro cutter looks.  

Not sure where we need to look to find signals right now tbh.  Yes, I'm gonna get bashed, but the tellies IMO argued for a better solution (although most recent runs show AO/NAO headed twds neutral, so maybe that it s the catalyst for increased ridging now showing on most guidance?

If you've got anything to add/share regarding this mess...I'm all ears.  

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

gfs at 144 takes SLP to Buffalo, then pops a secondary off Chessy bay at 150 and saves us all w/ a turnover to give a white christmas to most of the state.

huhhh

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

 

I just was perusing, and was going to post that 18z looked a tad bit better than 12z.

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