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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I take it back, one thing definitely changed today. @Itstrainingtime went into the PBP hall of fame with a Harry Carrey level call of a modeled Hec's.  I did not hear any bangs or booms so maybe something to work on there (Lol) but it was a great performance.  

That PBP was great! And I should say everyone’s was good 

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I take it back, one thing definitely changed today. @Itstrainingtime went into the PBP hall of fame with a Harry Carrey level call of a modeled Hec's.  I did not hear any bangs or booms so maybe something to work on there (Lol) but it was a great performance.  

Thank you! It was very spontaneous-I knew it was that time and I had this indescribable feeling that it was going to be a special run. I usually do one per season...glad my one and done went well. :)

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3 hours ago, Voyager said:

I can't understand why year after year, so many storms want to cut. Then all we (now you) end up with is Miller b's that sometimes do well. Many times they're either incredibly tainted, or you get the dryslot from hell.

 

the miller b thing has been a weather staple for "us", and surely we can do well.

The part I (and likely others) cant wrap my head around is why the new default for them so often seems to be the midwest, where they used to be ohio valley to a transfer off the VA coast ish kinda deal.  Its been something we've all seen for the last few years, and something has altered the base state for this to be the new norm.  Thats what I'm tryin to figure out.  I've brought this very point up a couple of times over the last few years.    

 

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good post from a good poster from another forum :

“Honestly I take the 18z GFS/GEFS as a win. It is still handling the TPV completely different vs other models. However, since we’re not getting a really good cold shot prior to main wave need the main shortwave to not come into conus as strong as 18z gfs had it. This run wasn’t far from a big hit imo

18z GEFS much snowier vs 12z

im telling ya guys, that wasn’t a cave. Not even close”

I also dont think it caved.  Looked rather similar through 130's as suggested in the PBP, but then it took a step towards the Euro's cutter solution beyond that, and the jump wasnt small either.  

I'm not sold on the CMC/Euro cut options, and yeah I've been riding the GFS a bit, as its been less jumpy until 18z.  Thats all.  Now it jumped a bit, so we keep on truckin and see what the next ones look like.

I'm sure there were peeps down in the MA forum that also suggested it was a step twds the Euro's depiction.  If one cant see that, they either arent paying attention, or dont know what they are looking at.  

 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

The ingredients are too primed for this to miss this region entirely. Anyone punting a storm a week away is insane. 

I suggested that yesterday and still feel the same today.  Tellies/Ens runs continue to look good, but the GFS Op either drank some skunk beer for HH, or there will be alot of head scratching in the coming days.

 

 

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