Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: Agree so many cutters the last couple of years it’s sickening can we just get a plain good snowstorm. Frustrating but it is the hobby I’m in and can’t get out. Good thing the storm didn’t happen yet… 6 days away… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I guess next weeks event is done. ABC-27 says mix to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good thing the storm didn’t happen yet… 6 days away… Truth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I guess next weeks event is done. ABC-27 says mix to rain.It is a week away. Plus, the local news is not really a bastion of medium-long range forecasting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I guess next weeks event is done. ABC-27 says mix to rain. The roller coaster of weather. Probably some hills left to traverse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 hours ago, pawatch said: A lot of model runs until Thursday. Probably going to be some wiggle wiggle between now and then. Lets see how consistent the model runs are. It was already happening today with weather.com's 14 day forecast for Williamsport. Between 3:00 and 5:30 it went from maybe 6-8 for next week to between 12-18 and back down again. Yeah I could not believe Thurs night suddenly was 8-12 -- and then everything back down. This past storm was a real pain with changing or not changing and not going as predicted. NWS kept calling for about double what we got way past the point yesterday they should have changed. I hope we don't have 6 days of extreme seesawing like that but we shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 My perception yesterday was that not much was happening most of the time yet it turns out we broke the Williamsport maximum daily precipitation record at 1.35". Go figure. Previous record was 1.23 in 1907. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The roller coaster of weather. Probably some hills left to traverse. According to JB this evening, he sounded like he was giving up on a total snow event too. But we'll see, there are many days to go till it gets here. Many model runs, and many stressed people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 Good post from a good poster from another forum : “Honestly I take the 18z GFS/GEFS as a win. It is still handling the TPV completely different vs other models. However, since we’re not getting a really good cold shot prior to main wave need the main shortwave to not come into conus as strong as 18z gfs had it. This run wasn’t far from a big hit imo 18z GEFS much snowier vs 12z im telling ya guys, that wasn’t a cave. Not even close” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z GEFS snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Total Precipitation from the storm 1.60. Glaze of ice,and a coating of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: According to JB this evening, he sounded like he was giving up on a total snow event too. But we'll see, there are many days to go till it gets here. Many model runs, and many stressed people. Jb is as wrong (or right) as anyone else who tries to guess weather a week away. But yea lots of runs to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 CTP's early forecast for Tamaqua for the late week event. Take it with a grain of salt, as it will likely change somewhat, but I guess it's their current feelings based on current model output AND meteorological knowledge. Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: According to JB this evening, he sounded like he was giving up on a total snow event too. But we'll see, there are many days to go till it gets here. Many model runs, and many stressed people. Here is a small part of JB’s post from this afternoon: “remember all these changes to rain on the coast and with good reason. The ridge was back near Boise. The rule is Grand junction longitude for the coast if full amplification So while it will snow in the big cites at the start and end and we may have a real doozy of a freeze up, I think it will change to sleet and rain for a time.” He said this storm reminded him of the Blizzard of March 93, Feb of 72 & January of 66. His quote above referenced these storms that changed to mix & rain on the coast & I-95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 43 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good thing the storm didn’t happen yet… 6 days away… I know give us some luck Blizz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z GEFS snow That is awesome for the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 Here is more from the 18z GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On to 0z come on and the 76ers are on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 Here are the member low locations on the 18z GEFS. This is not yet yet decided. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Yesterday the op's were not good enough and we should lean on ensembles....today one or two op's show rain and there is a run on the bank (no offense to anyone just, a general sense). Has much really changed over the last 24 hours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 This from DT’s blog this evening: “Therefore at this time I do not consider the12z Fri operational European in the Canadian models to be Valid. Of course, I could be wrong. Patterns / wave physics over models!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yesterday the op's were not good enough and we should lean on ensembles....today one or two op's show rain and there is a run on the bank (no offense to anyone just, a general sense). Has much really changed over the last 24 hours? Good points, 24 to 48 hours ago the Euro & Canadian both had good snow runs for us. Lots still to be resolved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This from DT’s blog this evening: “Therefore at this time I do not consider the12z Fri operational European in the Canadian models to be Valid. Of course, I could be wrong. Patterns / wave physics over models!” DT like it. And he is right 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 we all have this sinking feeling in our stomachs we know its going to go way west and be like in west of lake erie even tho the current set up doesnt support this it has happened in the past sadly we all hate app cutters but this happens more often then not. its what the models do sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good points, 24 to 48 hours ago the Euro & Canadian both had good snow runs for us. Lots still to be resolved. I just think both "sets of data" (ops and ensembles) have their place and are both valuable 3, 5, 7, 10 days out and like you said, not much has changed since yesterday with lots to be resolved. The scenario that gives us a Hec's is truly a hope and pray timing scenario that could have ensembles and op's showing 2 feet until 24 hours before and it still fail to produce. And on a somewhat personal note, I still have some thought that a Hec's the day or two before Christmas will cause a lot of families to miss their loved ones for the holiday so if it happens, it happens...not going to wish against it, but if a frontal passage of 2-4" happens then it is White Christmas and still family time, not going to fret and feel bad. Good to have something to track though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Ruin said: we all have this sinking feeling in our stomachs we know its going to go way west and be like in west of lake erie even tho the current set up doesnt support this it has happened in the past sadly we all hate app cutters but this happens more often then not. its what the models do sadly. Don’t be a Debbie Downer! It’s 6 days out let’s see what the weekend brings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, paweather said: Don’t be a Debbie Downer! It’s 6 days out let’s see what the weekend brings He is mad at the models for ruining the snow, thus the name ruin! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The ingredients are too primed for this to miss this region entirely. Anyone punting a storm a week away is insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: He is mad at the models for ruining the snow, thus the name ruin! LOL Love it! Didn’t look at that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I take it back, one thing definitely changed today. @Itstrainingtime went into the PBP hall of fame with a Harry Carrey level call of a modeled Hec's. I did not hear any bangs or booms so maybe something to work on there (Lol) but it was a great performance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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