Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[Voyager]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Bubbler knows this a whole lot better than me, but I've made a couple of dozen trips to Florida and the northern tier-Penisula seems like a different world than the rest of the state. You have to get further south into Florida to get into what you probably envision Florida being like. 

It wasn't until I was a teenager when I realized that it snows in parts of Arizona and California. I thought of those states as sunny and warm (hot) all the time. 

Same here. When one thinks of AZ or CA it's almost always Phoenix and Los Angeles. But those mountains...lol

[Voyager]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So did a lot of orange growers early in Florida's history.   Between Ocala and Orlando there are a lot of old orange groves turned into housing because the farmers kept taking hits/losses.  It is a pretty interesting history of how it all played out. 

That's the one thing. Phoenix is generally cooler than Florida overall during the winter, partly due to less humidity. That's why our average lows DJF are in the low to mid 40s. With that said, we dont get the extreme cold northern Florida can get during an eastern US arctic outbreak. Frost and below freezing temps are are rare in the Phoenix metro area. The orange groves around Phx never took the hits that central Florida did over the years. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Pretty wet storm 

2.05” house

2.22” Fairfield 

just about every white pine sustained some sort of limb damage.   

[Itstrainingtime]

16 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Same here. When one thinks of AZ or CA it's almost always Phoenix and Los Angeles. But those mountains...lol

Yes sir Steve - I'll be over 11,000' in elevation in CA in 5 months...

[Bubbler86]

13 minutes ago, Voyager said:

That's the one thing. Phoenix is generally cooler than Florida overall during the winter, partly due to less humidity. That's why our average lows DJF are in the low to mid 40s. With that said, we dont get the extreme cold northern Florida can get during an eastern US arctic outbreak. Frost and below freezing temps are are rare in the Phoenix metro area. The orange groves around Phx never took the hits that central Florida did over the years. 

In Florida some turn on sprinklers and cover the oranges with ice to try and keep them at a constant 32 degrees with the heat release from the freezing and melting, but some growers call that theory a "myth" in that it does not help as much as other methods.   

[paweather]

33 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

6z is still a close miss, but at this lead time, we just want to storm to keep showing up, then we can start worrying about whos getting what (if anything).

Looping through the panels, its a rather wonky/sloppy presentation, but no storm seems to come easy round here.  

Yeah we knew it was going to be a back and forth in this range but it is at least showing the storm for now. 

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yeah we knew it was going to be a back and forth in this range but it is at least showing the storm for now. 

You can add the CMC to the list that has something decent and close.  Consensus is all we can hope for right now.

I'm on the road seeing clients rest of the day, so I hope you guys have some good nooners to look over.  And, if they are bad....its part of the game.  Fret not. Many more runs to parse over in the coming days.

[pasnownut]

24 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Pretty wet storm 

2.05” house

2.22” Fairfield 

just about every white pine sustained some sort of limb damage.   

oof.  that sucks.  Sorry bout the damage.  Hoping the roof didnt get damaged too much.

[Bubbler86]

26 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Pretty wet storm 

2.05” house

2.22” Fairfield 

just about every white pine sustained some sort of limb damage.   

 

 

Is that one of your places/buildings?   

[Itstrainingtime]

Just had someone walk in the office and ask where the snow is - after a very puzzled look, she told me that Accuweather was calling for a coating to an 1" here. Sure enough, I go on AW, enter Conestoga, and there it was.

It's 40 degrees here and drizzling.

How far Accuweather has fallen since I was growing up...

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just had someone walk in the office and ask where the snow is - after a very puzzled look, she told me that Accuweather was calling for a coating to an 1" here. Sure enough, I go on AW, enter Conestoga, and there it was.

It's 40 degrees here and drizzling.

How far Accuweather has fallen since I was growing up...

Why do you think that is?  In my single opinion, they have converted to automated and impersonal forecasting as what we all hear.  We have less of Elliott Abrams and more of model output.

[Cashtown_Coop]

14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Is that one of your places/buildings?   

That building is actually off 233 where Shippensburg rd comes across.   Roughly 1500ft.    There’s a fulls day of cleanup at course.    More damage than I was expecting.   It’s funny how fast the crew works when you tell them they can call it a day once everything is picked up.   

[Anduril]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Why do you think that is?  In my single opinion, they have converted to automated and impersonal forecasting as what we all hear.  We have less of Elliott Abrams and more of model output.

I'd say thats exactly it. Most weather sites do their forecasts now almost entirely off model runs and Accuweather has been guilty of that for years.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Anduril said:

I'd say thats exactly it. Most weather sites do their forecasts now almost entirely off model runs and Accuweather has been guilty of that for years.

I was not sure if they still had met's on places like KYW in Philly.  They could probably pay some people here to clean up the model output and put together a personalized forecast for this area. 

[Bubbler86]

30 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

That building is actually off 233 where Shippensburg rd comes across.   Roughly 1500ft.    There’s a fulls day of cleanup at course.    More damage than I was expecting 

I had not seen much damage here but that is pretty significant. Sorry you have to deal with that. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I had not seen much damage her but that is pretty significant. Sorry you have to deal with that. 

Part of the deal thanks.   I’ve seen much worse over the years 

[Itstrainingtime]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Why do you think that is?  In my single opinion, they have converted to automated and impersonal forecasting as what we all hear.  We have less of Elliott Abrams and more of model output.

Pretty much - at least on the website, almost all of the personality has been removed. I miss the blog sections where Elliott, Joe Lundberg, and others would write daily updates. That was good content. 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Part of the deal thanks.   I’ve seen much worse over the years 

I'm sorry as well. 

Amazing microclimates across our area. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Pretty much - at least on the website, almost all of the personality has been removed. I miss the blog sections where Elliott, Joe Lundberg, and others would write daily updates. That was good content. 

Interesting info on Wiki.  Joel Myers is still the CEO.

Criticisms[edit]

Long-term forecasting practices[edit]

In April 2012, AccuWeather drastically shortened the range of their publicly available historical data from 15 years to 1 year. They also began increasing the range of their forecast from 15 days to 25 days, 45 days, and (by 2016) to 90 days. These hyper-extended forecasts have been compared to actual results several times and shown to be misleading, inaccurate, and sometimes less accurate than simple predictions based on National Weather Service averages over a 30-year period.^[25][26] It is generally accepted that the upper limit on how far one can reliably forecast is between one and two weeks, a limit based on both limits in observation systems and the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.^[25][27][28]

An informal assessment conducted by Jason Samenow at The Washington Post asserted that AccuWeather's forecasts at the 25-day range were often wrong by as many as ten degrees Fahrenheit, no better than random chance and that the forecasts missed half of the fourteen days of rain that had occurred during the month of the assessment.^[29] AccuWeather responds that it does not claim absolute precision in such extremely long forecasts and advises users to only use the forecast to observe general trends in the forecast period,^[30] but this contrasts with the way the forecasts are presented.^[31] An assessment from the Post determined that the 45-day forecasts were not even able to predict trends accurately, and that, although the forecasts did not decrease in accuracy with time, the forecasts were so far off even in the short range as to be useless.^[31] The Post commissioned another assessment from Penn State University professor Jon Nese, comparing several more cities to Accuweather's predictions; that assessment, while acknowledged as being limited to a single season, acknowledged that AccuWeather's forecasts were of value in short-range forecasting while also noting that their long-range forecasts beyond one week were less accurate than climatological averages.^[26]

National Weather Service[edit]

The National Weather Service, which provides large amounts of the data that AccuWeather repackages and sells for profit, also provides that same information for free by placing it in the public domain.

On April 14, 2005, U.S. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) introduced the "National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005" in the U.S. Senate. The legislation would have forbidden the National Weather Service from providing any such information directly to the public, and the legislation was generally interpreted as an attempt by AccuWeather to profit off of taxpayer-funded weather research by forcing its delivery through private channels. AccuWeather denies this and maintains it never intended to keep weather information out of the hands of the general public.^[32] The bill did not come up for a vote. Santorum received campaign contributions from AccuWeather's president, Joel Myers.^[33]

On October 12, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated AccuWeather CEO Barry Lee Myers, the younger brother of the company's founder, to head the National Weather Service's parent administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It was noted that unlike 11 of the previous 12 NOAA administrators, Myers lacks an advanced scientific degree, instead holding bachelor's and master's degrees in business and law.^[34] Barry Myers stepped down as CEO of AccuWeather on January 1, 2019, and completely divested himself of any ownership of AccuWeather in accordance with his pledge to the Office of Government Ethics and the U.S. Senate. After two years of inaction on the nomination, Myers withdrew his consideration for nomination on November 12, 2019, due to ill health,^[35] though allegations of a hostile workplace and pervasive sexual harassment while Myers was at AccuWeather are rumored to have stalled it.^[36][37] Myers sent a letter to The Washington Post in 2019 to address these allegations.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Interesting info on Wiki.  Joel Myers is still the CEO.

 

 

Thanks for sharing that - nice to see the name Jon Nese in that article. He was an absolute favorite of mine on Weather World years ago, and I think he was Horst's mentor while he was at PSU. 

I think that Jason Samenow guy is with the Capital Weather Gang as well? 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thanks for sharing that - nice to see the name Jon Nese in that article. He was an absolute favorite of mine on Weather World years ago, and I think he was Horst's mentor while he was at PSU. 

I think that Jason Samenow guy is with the Capital Weather Gang as well? 

The NWS/Accuweather info part was surprising. I had not heard that before.   They were about to limit us to having the Icon, Euro and JMA only.  LOL.   Would have been goodbye Nam, GFS, HRRR, etc. 

[paweather]

GFS is off and running. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

13 minutes ago, paweather said:

GFS is off and running. 

Post how much for Cashtown.   In feet only 

[paweather]

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Post how much for Cashtown.   In feet only 

Sure will do. 

[pawatch]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

I think the moving on part was those of us that really werent in.  Sorry if we stole any thunder from yalls fun.

at least it wasnt a hard freeze after, or you'd be chippin away for days.  Have fun.

 

That was fine. This was I think one of the worse storms that I had to deal with cleaning up....PASTE

Had to get a metal shovel out to move the snow. Was afraid I was going to break my plastic one.

Tractor snowblower plugged. 

[paweather]

Doesn't look like a good start. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Doesn't look like a good start. 

I only have it to 108.  

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Doesn't look like a good start. 

Don’t forget you could always check out the ma pbp for clarity.   First post, looking like big hit incoming, next post, not looking good swing and a miss.   

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I only have it to 108.  

Yeah I am just trying to do reverse psychology. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Don’t forget you could always check out the ma pbp for clarity.   First post, looking like big hit incoming, next post, not looking good swing and a miss.   

Quite the ensemble of Op PBP's there.