Santa Clause Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 As long as it gets sauss in on the fun too....I’m going to demand pics of him doing snow angels with a beer in each hand. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 It is best at this range to still lean on the ensembles. The Op runs will continue to bounce around for a few more days. The 0z EPS has a strong signal for a storm along the coast by next Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 The 6z GEFS also has a strong signal for a storm along the coast by next Friday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Here are the 6z GEFS & 0z Euro snow maps for the few day period ending Christmas Eve morning (these exclude today’s storm for the Northeast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 We are very much in the game, hopefully 12z runs are good, but ensembles will still be best until at least Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It is best at this range to still lean on the ensembles. The Op and Ensemble runs will continue to bounce around until the day before. The 0z EPS has a strong signal for a storm along the coast by next Friday morning. Fixed. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Ocala Florida has frozen and below freezing temps in their forecast around Christmas. Always a good sign of major cold here. This was sent to me, I do not use "The Bug". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Fixed. . True, but much less bounce on the ensembles! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Ocala Florida has frozen and below freezing temps in their forecast around Christmas. Always a good sign of major cold here. This was sent to me, I do not use "The Bug". Wow...Friday is downright frigid by Ocala standards. By comparison, with the pattern change, we may be flirting with 70's by Christmas weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: True, but much less bounce on the ensembles! Very true, just do not think we are able to dissect as many details from an ensemble run which is an average of 50 members (plus one control) who are fed different data than the OP to allow for evaluation of uncertainty. I think the ensembles are great to check up on the OP and see the odds that the Op is right, but if into model dissection, it is hard to do it with 51 solutions in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Voyager said: Wow...Friday is downright frigid by Ocala standards. By comparison, with the pattern change, we may be flirting with 70's by Christmas weekend. We got down to 14 one night when I was in Ocala. That was the same year we had 1/2" of snow in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Very true, just do not think we are able to dissect as many details from an ensemble run which is an average of 50 members (plus one control) who are fed different data than the OP to allow for evaluation of uncertainty. I think the ensembles are great to check up on the OP and see the odds that the Op is right, but if into model dissection, it is hard to do it with 51 solutions in one run. Yes, but that is why looking at the low locations can help to determine the different camps of lows and to see the trends. Outliers can skew the mean, but if you factor those out, it gives you a much better idea at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 at 2 this morning on the way back from a house fire and it was still raining, i said, imagine if all this rain we've got was snow...........................then right after that i said, imagine if i had a $1 for every time i said that 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, but that is why looking at the low locations can help to determine the different camps of lows and to see the trends. Outliers can skew the mean, but if you factor those out, it gives you a much better idea at this range. It is literally 50 different ideas based on data that is purposely entered differently. I believe it is the same "software" as the EC being run at a lower resolution with purposely altered data to allow for evaluation of uncertainty in the Op. But some people like the dissection aspect of this hobby which is easier to do with the Op. So, to each their own but folks who like to talk Op runs are good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 What a mess yesterday. You know it not a good storm, when 1/2 way thru it, we’re talking about next weeks storm. Sometimes a little confusing. I don’t even know how close my measurements are. snow/Sleet I figured 2.25” Rain 1.30” What a sloppy mess to clean up today. On to the next storm. 32 this morning. Blizz glad you have power. Forum needs to take a collection up so you can get a generator 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We got down to 14 one night when I was in Ocala. That was the same year we had 1/2" of snow in January. Wow...I had no idea it could get that cold down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Voyager said: Wow...I had no idea it could get that cold down there. Florida's record low is -2 (negative 2) in Tallahassee. :-) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 49 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Very true, just do not think we are able to dissect as many details from an ensemble run which is an average of 50 members (plus one control) who are fed different data than the OP to allow for evaluation of uncertainty. I think the ensembles are great to check up on the OP and see the odds that the Op is right, but if into model dissection, it is hard to do it with 51 solutions in one run. lol the ensembles to the dissecting for us. I dare say most will take and ensemble mean 10 fold over an op post 7 days. Some of you wanted pros input... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: True, but much less bounce on the ensembles! it was nice to see both the Euro and GFS Ens similar in placement regarding next week. SHOULD boost confidence when so many iterations smoothed out show a similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Florida's record low is -2 (negative 2) in Tallahassee. :-) So many iguanas falling. So many concussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 54 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, but that is why looking at the low locations can help to determine the different camps of lows and to see the trends. Outliers can skew the mean, but if you factor those out, it gives you a much better idea at this range. Well stated Blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Rain and 37 currently. Up to 1.54" of rain so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 45 minutes ago, pawatch said: What a mess yesterday. You know it not a good storm, when 1/2 way thru it, we’re talking about next weeks storm. Sometimes a little confusing. I don’t even know how close my measurements are. snow/Sleet I figured 2.25” Rain 1.30” What a sloppy mess to clean up today. On to the next storm. 32 this morning. Blizz glad you have power. Forum needs to take a collection up so you can get a generator I think the moving on part was those of us that really werent in. Sorry if we stole any thunder from yalls fun. at least it wasnt a hard freeze after, or you'd be chippin away for days. Have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: We got down to 14 one night when I was in Ocala. That was the same year we had 1/2" of snow in January. 33 minutes ago, Voyager said: Wow...I had no idea it could get that cold down there. Bubbler knows this a whole lot better than me, but I've made a couple of dozen trips to Florida and the northern tier-Penisula seems like a different world than the rest of the state. You have to get further south into Florida to get into what you probably envision Florida being like. It wasn't until I was a teenager when I realized that it snows in parts of Arizona and California. I thought of those states as sunny and warm (hot) all the time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Rain and 37 currently. Up to 1.54" of rain so far. We ended up just under 2" here. A mild 40 right now. Central MD got all the rain they could possibly want. The run of the Euro that showed the Hecs/Mecs was right on precip totals just not temps. Radar estimated qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: We ended up just under 2" here. A mild 40 right now. Central MD got all the rain they could possibly want. The run of the Euro that showed the Hecs/Mecs was right as precip totals just not temps. Thanks - my gauge was frozen for several hours yesterday and I'm not totally convinced that my amount is accurate - 1.5"+ is a lot of rain...but we got a LOT of rain. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6z is still a close miss, but at this lead time, we just want to storm to keep showing up, then we can start worrying about whos getting what (if anything). Looping through the panels, its a rather wonky/sloppy presentation, but no storm seems to come easy round here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 and IF the models have a clue, like blizz suggested earlier, the pattern looks ripe for the pickings. Doesnt mean we score one, but the odds seem to be trending more favorable for us for the holidays and into the New Year. Best look IMO in some time. How long the window stays open....dunno, but it'll be open for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 44 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Florida's record low is -2 (negative 2) in Tallahassee. :-) That I knew, but Ocala is down the peninsula some. I figured temps that cold didn't make it that far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Voyager said: That I knew, but Ocala is down the peninsula some. I figured temps that cold didn't make it that far south. So did a lot of orange growers early in Florida's history. Between Ocala and Orlando there are a lot of old orange groves turned into housing because the farmers kept taking hits/losses. It is a pretty interesting history of how it all played out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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