pasnownut Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: NAM blasts rain all the way to NY border. Tough to discount it when we’ve seen warmth win out in these situations. I just looked at it vs the Euro, and they are similar...and not crowd pleasers. So the rug is still under foot and wating for the big tug.....whos gonna pull it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Fv3 still shows a snow burst for the Northern LSV...later in the sequence of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 NAM always seems to be warmer than most models. It will be an interesting day tomorrow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: NAM blasts rain all the way to NY border. Tough to discount it when we’ve seen warmth win out in these situations. Happened with a storm last year where nam was only model to show that and it verified 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Happened with a storm last year where nam was only model to show that and it verified The trend with all the 12Z's out so far, including the entire HRW suite I can see, is less sleet and more frz rain for us...and a short/small accum snow burst before switch to rain for the top of the LSV and lower MSV. Even the 3K has it. The 12K Nam is the only one without it so far. Most have all changing over to rain eventually...up to NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Happened with a storm last year where nam was only model to show that and it verified Happens almost every winter. Sometimes more than once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Happens almost every winter. Sometimes more than once. I'm not saying it won't happen but it will be interesting to watch and maybe one event goes in the right direction for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 GFS & EURO vs mesoscales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Rgem also pushes rain into NY with little to no snow for the LSV. Far north part gets an inch or so on Kuch. Serious sleet bomb for West Central PA. And crazy FRZ map though this often does not verify in reality. The area of little Frz between the Western Mountain range and Franklin county gets a lot of sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, paweather said: I'm not saying it won't happen but it will be interesting to watch and maybe one event goes in the right direction for us. Absolutely! Best events are ones that surprise in a positive way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 This is essentially a tropical storm. Heavy rains, winds gusting to the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 I'm sorta excited for this storm because if conditions are anything but gravy I can work from home with my new job no longer risking death so someone can get into Staples to buy a pack of pens! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 GFS still the snowier of the models. Shows Canderson getting 4.7". LOL. The depiction is a bit of a mess and all over the place but it is what it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 The consistency on the run to run gfs is insane . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS still the snowier of the models. Shows Canderson getting 4.7". LOL. The depiction is a bit of a mess and all over the place but it is what it is. GFS looks a little over done. But you got to like the consistency. I remember the days when Nam was king 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS still the snowier of the models. Shows Canderson getting 4.7". LOL. The depiction is a bit of a mess and all over the place but it is what it is. Still got a chance for a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: That is our reality in changeover storms...almost without fail, sleet and ZR comes earlier, and moves much farther north, than predicted. The truth of all truths. The fat lady has been singing for a while for much of the southern LSV. I expect less than an inch of slop down here in Amish-land. If I could plop myself anywhere for this storm it would be that high ridge near the border of Lycoming and Tioga Counties, near Libery/Blossburg. Also, I swear Laporte is in a great spot for damn near every storm ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: The consistency on the run to run gfs is insane . The thing that bothers me with this situation is its precip indications. Take this one for example. Lower resolution may be hurting its forecasting skill on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The thing that bothers me with this situation is its precip indications. Take this one for example. Lower resolution may be hurting its forecasting skill on this event. Most likely yes... ...or, could it be areas of high intensity precip/dynamic cooling? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 This is not at all a suggestion of agreement but the GFS is more or less dry the rest of the year on the 6Z so hope for some adjustments there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The truth of all truths. The fat lady has been singing for a while for much of the southern LSV. I expect less than an inch of slop down here in Amish-land. If I could plop myself anywhere for this storm it would be that high ridge near the border of Lycoming and Tioga Counties, near Libery/Blossburg. Also, I swear Laporte is in a great spot for damn near every storm ha. I'm not sold that we see ANY snow whatsoever. Certainly would not surprise me if I have to wait at least another week before seeing my first flakes of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Most likely yes... ...or, could it be areas of high intensity precip/dynamic cooling? True just very rectangular in nature for that snow. Like it drew lines. That panel is why Canderson scores on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: This is not at all a suggestion of agreement but the GFS is more or less dry the rest of the year. Does it shred next week's potential, or is there no storm at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Rgem also pushes rain into NY with little to no snow for the LSV. Far north part gets an inch or so on Kuch. Serious sleet bomb for West Central PA. And crazy FRZ map though this often does not verify in reality. The area of little Frz between the Western Mountain range and Franklin county gets a lot of sleet. As far as I can tell, the RGEM's primary purpose is to throw out insanely juiced up fantastical FRZ maps that will never come close to verifying, and I'm here for all of it 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Does it shred next week's potential, or is there no storm at all? I was typing that and went to reply to yours and did not finish the thought but that was in reference to the 6Z....but yes on the 6Z there is nothing the rest of the year. Everything supressed except one small coastal 12/29. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Filtered sun and already up to 35 here just past 11am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Filtered sun and already up to 35 here just past 11am. Cloudy and 32 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm not sold that we see ANY snow whatsoever. Certainly would not surprise me if I have to wait at least another week before seeing my first flakes of the season. Yep, I'm betting on no white at all falling for us. As always, would love to be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The truth of all truths. The fat lady has been singing for a while for much of the southern LSV. I expect less than an inch of slop down here in Amish-land. If I could plop myself anywhere for this storm it would be that high ridge near the border of Lycoming and Tioga Counties, near Libery/Blossburg. Also, I swear Laporte is in a great spot for damn near every storm ha. Yeah, no matter what map shows what, we know the drill down here. Hoping for surprise reports N and W of us (more N IMO). Funny as I was thinking Liberty exit of rt 15 to Worlds End when I suggested Lyco to Sullivan. Liberty is 1 mile over the Tioga border, and a plateau that we always see wintery weather when there is some to be had en route to the cabin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 12Z GFS was back to being a little more vigorous with the front passage on the 23rd...squalls, etc. But the orientation of the trough is great for a SLP forming on the front. It will change in 6 hours. :-). But no storm as of now except for New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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