Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 EPS is a much better look than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: EPS is a much better look than the op. That looks great! wheewww. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, paweather said: That looks great! wheewww. For me, definitely need to see the Op give up on its depiction quickly. Ensembles are a smoothed-out average...great for keeping the fast-changing Op's honest but have to review the members to get a real idea of where (and why) the averages fall where they do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 57 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's a cutter on 'roids. If the Euro depiction happens, I know someone whose AC will be humming on 12/24... Christmas Eve and early Christmas morn 2015 was awesome! It was warm and humid! As a young kid, I would've been depressed. Now, I loved it! I believe the maxT was 70F at KMDT on Christmas Eve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 This storm, for those who see white from it, would likely seal a White Christmas, would it not? I haven't had the time to look too far out but I was under the impression this storm brings the cold.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Caveman said: Christmas Eve and early Christmas morn 2015 was awesome! It was warm and humid! As a young kid, I would've been depressed. Now, I loved it! I believe the maxT was 70F at KMDT on Christmas Eve! I remember it all too well. I wholeheartedly approve of your...um...logo under your name. That's all I'm saying about it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: This storm, for those who see white from it, would likely seal a White Christmas, would it not? I haven't had the time to look too far out but I was under the impression this storm brings the cold. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 20°F+ surface T anomalies for a couple of days with Td >32°F will erode snow cover quickly if that indeed occurs as per the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Caveman said: 20°F+ surface T anomalies for a couple of days with Td >32°F will erode snow cover quickly if that indeed occurs as per the Euro... Caveman we want cold weather the ENS was much better and I disapprove your logo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Another good panel for discussion today....the EPS ensemble low positions for the 23rd White Christmas or bust situation. This was posted on the MA thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Another good panel for discussion today....the ensemble low positions for the 23rd White Christmas or bust situation. This was posted on the MA thread. Canderson Holiday Express Storm fights on - a few too many L's on that map NW of us for my liking. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18z Nam sleetfest for a while down here and then rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Canderson Holiday Express Storm fights on - a few too many L's on that map NW of us for my liking. I think the ensembles are showing a storm going up west of the mountains transitioning vorticity to the coast for a coastal development...very common in these parts as you are all aware. If the antecedent cold is sufficient, that makes for a nice winter event in these parts...albeit possibly a tad sloppy or heavy...? Storm to Pittsburgh, overrunning precip; then coastal take over...hammer time! That model posted is 234 hours out...Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, paweather said: 18z Nam sleetfest for a while down here and then rain. The 3K is showing a slightly more favorable flip to snow before the column is overwhealmed....Northern LSV gets some white though it may be washed away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Caveman said: I think the ensembles are showing a storm going up west of the mountains transitioning vorticity to the coast for a coastal development...very common in these parts as you are all aware. If the antecedent cold is sufficient, that makes for a nice winter event in these parts...albeit possibly a tad sloppy or heavy...? Storm to Pittsburgh, overrunning precip; then coastal take over...hammer time! That model posted is 234 hours out...Thoughts? My first thought is...it's over a week away. So much will change. Decent signal for a storm somewhere in the east at some point between 12/22 and 12/26. Outside of that, I don't think it's really fair to speculate more than that. Let's see where we're at this weekend and start the process of narrowing goalposts at that time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Holy mother of God. 21 degrees in Phoenix? That would probably put Sun City in the mid to upper teens. If that happens as depicted, there is no doubting the fact that I'm a cold magnet. That's all time record flirting material right there... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Holy mother of God. 21 degrees in Phoenix? That would probably put Sun City in the mid to upper teens. If that happens as depicted, there is no doubting the fact that I'm a cold magnet. That's all time record flirting material right there... It is indeed...may give you reason to check out the 0Z to see if it holds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is indeed...may give you reason to check out the 0Z to see if it holds! The GFS is the polar opposite so who knows. It's 10 days out so probably won't verify, but I don't think I've ever seen a colder depiction for Phoenix and the entire southwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, Voyager said: Holy mother of God. 21 degrees in Phoenix? That would probably put Sun City in the mid to upper teens. If that happens as depicted, there is no doubting the fact that I'm a cold magnet. That's all time record flirting material right there... The airport recorded 17 degrees back in January 1950 - that's the coldest ever at Sky Harbor. So this would be an exceptional occurrence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The 3K is showing a slightly more favorable flip to snow before the column is overwhealmed....Northern LSV gets some white though it may be washed away. Thanks! Let’s hope for some white for a period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: The airport recorded 17 degrees back in January 1950 - that's the coldest ever at Sky Harbor. So this would be an exceptional occurrence. This reminds me of some all-time records for Florida just for compare... Statewide: 1899 it reached -2 in Tallahassee First recorded appearance of snow in Florida: 1774 when 3" fell in many Panhandle locations Lowest temp Recorded in Orlando: 18 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This reminds me of some all-time records for Florida just for compare... Statewide: 1899 it reached -2 in Tallahassee First recorded appearance of snow in Florida: 1774 when 3" fell in many Panhandle locations Lowest temp Recorded in Orlando: 18 degrees. One one of our many trips to Florida over the years, my car was showing 27 one morning at our resort - this was in Lake Buena Vista. I'm assuming Orlando's data is from MCO? You could probably win some trivia contests on whether or not FL has ever recorded a sub-zero temp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: One one of our many trips to Florida over the years, my car was showing 27 one morning at our resort - this was in Lake Buena Vista. I'm assuming Orlando's data is from MCO? The Orlando low is from the 1800's so probably not MCO. LOL. FWIW, Orlando has gone under 25 more than 30 times in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The GFS is again favoring the CENTRAL AND EASTERN LSV (vs West) for a flip to snow after a period of sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 WWA should be issued tonight or tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 42 minutes ago, paweather said: WWA should be issued tonight or tomorrow I do believe you're correct...in fact, I believe the entire Mid-Atlantic and northeast US as per the NWS watch/warn map might just look like a Christmas Tree! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Check out this frontal passage on the 18Z GFS. Snowstorm wise, this is probably too much of a good thing temp/PV wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 @Itstrainingtime, ironic we were just talking about this re: the 18Z GFS and Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Check out this frontal passage on the 18Z GFS. Snowstorm wise, this is probably too much of a good thing temp/PV wise. That’s a couple inches of snow and a white Christmas 12z had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, paweather said: That’s a couple inches of snow and a white Christmas 12z had it Yep, a white Christmas the non SLP way :-). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep, a white Christmas the non SLP way :-). That’s fine with me we will be rockin in January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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