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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I hope so - I love when it's dark by 5pm in December. I feel like it enhances the holiday spirit for me and it's also an indication that it's winter time...even if the actual weather isn't cooperating. 

 

Moving the clocks ahead is actually depressing to me. 

 

Yes, I know that's not a popular opinion and yes I know that I'm weird. 

It is my opinion.  I also do not like kids being in the dark nor it being dark close to 9AM. 

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12Z GFS continues to trend toward some front end action for Friday.  1.7 right over the 'Burg. Fv3 has a similar look though more smoothed out.   Other suites are more mix to rain or rain the for LSV.   Forecasting wise, not looking great regardless of a few models trending toward more snow.  The initial WAA looks less impressive as we go on. 

image.png.10d6ac6771b7eed8988c0011205e830a.png

 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

48 and scattered clouds for nooners. 

46 and scattered clouds here.

 

Latest GFS paints 20" of QPF for Mammoth CA in March. Euro is much "drier" with only about 8" of QPF. Even is the Euro is correct, that's likely another 10' of snow in the next 30 days. By that point I'll be 7 weeks from my trip. In town they've now received 524" of snow with a current snow cover of a staggering 203". 

 

map_only.php?var=snow_depth_obs_48_h&min

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My "premise" for a mid March snowstorm was born when the SSWE took place a week or two ago. When a SSWE occurs, very often, but not always, cold and snowy weather in the eastern US will result with a lag time of 3-4 weeks. From when the event occurred I went ahead that amount of time and that took me to the middle of March. Also, there's been a lot of encouraging signs, especially on the EPS that the trough out west would get kicked east beginning next week and that would hopefully squash the SER at least temporarily, opening up our window of opportunity.

 

Today's Euro is one the first OP runs to start showing the explosive potential that exists IF things progress as the EPS has been depicting. Still doesn't guarantee us anything...but I think this is the best opportunity we could be facing for something noteworthy over the past couple of years. 

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Elliott keeps ITT hopes alive by jumping in and throwing me a bone. An excerpt from this afternoon:

 

I anticipate a shift toward persistently chillier conditions during the second (and perhaps third) week of March. The Greenland blocking is expected to slowly retrograde westward into northeastern Canada over the next 5-10 days. As it does so, the Jet Stream will be forced farther south into the mid-latitudes and beat down the upper-level ridge over the Southeast. With the strong blocking in place and potential for a Jet Stream ridge to briefly flare up over the Rockies sometime between March 10th to March 20th, the odds of a late-season snowstorm will go up. Will snow-lovers be treated to a last-second surprise before the official start of Spring? I don't have the answers yet, but winter's "endgame" saved the entire season in both 2017 and 2018. Can history repeat itself? Stay tuned to find out! ❄️ -- Elliott

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5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

46 and scattered clouds here.

 

Latest GFS paints 20" of QPF for Mammoth CA in March. Euro is much "drier" with only about 8" of QPF. Even is the Euro is correct, that's likely another 10' of snow in the next 30 days. By that point I'll be 7 weeks from my trip. In town they've now received 524" of snow with a current snow cover of a staggering 203". 

 

map_only.php?var=snow_depth_obs_48_h&min

heard some one state on the weather part of the next they could have snow on most of the higher mountains till next winter 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Elliott keeps ITT hopes alive by jumping in and throwing me a bone. An excerpt from this afternoon:

 

I anticipate a shift toward persistently chillier conditions during the second (and perhaps third) week of March. The Greenland blocking is expected to slowly retrograde westward into northeastern Canada over the next 5-10 days. As it does so, the Jet Stream will be forced farther south into the mid-latitudes and beat down the upper-level ridge over the Southeast. With the strong blocking in place and potential for a Jet Stream ridge to briefly flare up over the Rockies sometime between March 10th to March 20th, the odds of a late-season snowstorm will go up. Will snow-lovers be treated to a last-second surprise before the official start of Spring? I don't have the answers yet, but winter's "endgame" saved the entire season in both 2017 and 2018. Can history repeat itself? Stay tuned to find out! ❄️ -- Elliott

Well, Elliott punting early Spring (Met spring, today is the first day of Spring) is about as much as a lock as you are going to get.   Will March be colder than Feb and Jan?   That would be something. I heard two posters from Baltimore and NJ are pissed right now. 

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