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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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17 hours ago, sauss06 said:

speaking of clocks. Springing ahead next weekend

 

11 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

@sauss06Daylight saving time begins on the second Sunday (after the second Saturday) of March.  That would be March 12th.

Thats's what i meant, This Sunday would be March 4th, Next Sunday is the 12th 

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1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

My kiddo has surgery to get tubes in his ears on Thursday. As a result, I am off work. Thursday looks like it's going to be a James Spann/Ryan Hall day with the little one.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Best of luck, man.   I hope it goes well for him. 

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Our 7th (that's right) winter "event" is in the books. In East Nantmeal we received 0.3" of sleet/snow. Of the 7 events only 1 event on January 25th (0.8") exceeded the 1 inch mark. Clouds should hang around today with winds increasing this PM. Mild through Friday with more rain again possibly mixed with snow Thursday night into Friday.
Daily Records: High 71 (1946) / Low 4 below (1934) / Precipitation 1.82" (1902) / Snow 5.0" (1941)
image.png.263182b1fe52db04e3e0287d7014599f.png
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The 6z GFS, 6z Euro & 0z Canadian for Friday each have a few inches of front end snow from the turnpike & to the north. The latest Euro starts the snow at the MD line.

The 6z Euro ends at 90 hours, so maybe a bit more to go as well for areas further to the north & east.

Still a few days to go to see exactly where the front end snow line sets up.

5B5F86A5-8FDB-4669-9405-DA6B72E90E05.png

5540D0E5-AD9F-4E40-B801-DAC737A99BCB.png

D48ED3E8-F546-4F5C-86AA-F23344C3C88B.png

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6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS, 6z Euro & 0z Canadian for Friday each have a few inches of front end snow from the turnpike & ti the north. The latest Euro starts the snow at the MD line.

Still a few days to go to see exactly where the front end snow line sets up.

5B5F86A5-8FDB-4669-9405-DA6B72E90E05.png

5540D0E5-AD9F-4E40-B801-DAC737A99BCB.png

D48ED3E8-F546-4F5C-86AA-F23344C3C88B.png

I am not sure why those maps always show more than any other source I can find.  Take Franklin county and the GFS. On Pivotal it shows no show at all.

image.thumb.png.86a4d4b22223ab9afac55eec982990ce.png

 

 

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10 minutes ago, pawatch said:

1.3” of snow till it all got obliterated to paste. Still raining this morning, roadways are bare.

This storm follows the same pattern for the season.

Currently 35 degrees, At one point last evening 40 degrees. :lol: :lol:

we had a coating of sleet when I went to bed.  Was pingin pretty good off the tin roof.  While it was nice to see (and yes I counted a handful of snowflakes on way home from work yesterday), still really a meh in my book.  

This weekend is slippin away (as of last 2 days), so if a reversal is happenin, it better start real soon (fwiw me thinks that aint happenin).  

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27 minutes ago, canderson said:

Saw no snow last night - sleet gave way to just heavy rain. .5" rain yesterday. More rain Friday. 

12Z's showing more frozen than rain Friday (so far) so jury still out on that one. Everyone seems to be skipping the rain tomorrow night though?  The NAM has some areas getting 1/2 to 1".   A tad north of Harrisburg for that heavier band Wed night rain on the Nam. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

12Z's showing more frozen than rain Friday (so far) so jury still out on that one. Everyone seems to be skipping the rain tomorrow night though?  The NAM has some areas getting 1/2 to 1".   A tad north of Harrisburg for that heavier band Wed night rain on the Nam. 

True, lots of rain tomorrow too. I just kinda meant I fully expect the trend of the warm out to win out Friday - it has for 30 or so consecutive months. 

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

True, lots of rain tomorrow too. I just kinda meant I fully expect the trend of the warm out to win out Friday - it has for 30 or so consecutive months. 

Cannot debate that but the 12Z Nam surprising has all frozen from Friday (Except York and Lanco) so fingers crossed if one wants that.   6Z was a lot more rainy. 

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10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Cannot debate that but the 12Z Nam surprising has all frozen from Friday (Except York and Lanco) so fingers crossed if one wants that. 

 

:(  

 

Friday's storm - I'm a kid sitting in the back of the family sedan in the early 70s uninhibited with no seat belt.

 

Next week's opportunity - fast forward to today when I'm in the car with the buckle is latched and I'm fully secured. :)  

 

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Cannot debate that but the 12Z Nam surprising has all frozen from Friday (Except York and Lanco) so fingers crossed if one wants that.   6Z was a lot more rainy. 

I'm more focused on the severe WX headed for my fam in East Texas Thursday night. SPC will probably have them in a high risk for severe with >25% TOR outbreak. Metrics are ... no bueno. 

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10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z's showing more frozen than rain Friday (so far) so jury still out on that one. Everyone seems to be skipping the rain tomorrow night though?  The NAM has some areas getting 1/2 to 1".   A tad north of Harrisburg for that heavier band Wed night rain on the Nam. 

 

Hmm. Tomorrow night has NOT been on my radar - CTP has me at a 20% chance of a scattered shower. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There is a clipper coming through and some models have sig rain, some lesser. image.thumb.png.e2603a339f89f216d0186336d9d19693.png

 

I just checked with Elliott - he's calling for a chance of an isolated shower. He also added this:

 

 
 
 
As meteorological winter comes to a close, here are some astounding climatological stats from @millersvilleu. For the 2nd time in 4 years, no measurable snow fell at MU in Feb. Both #january2023 and #February2023 will be the 2nd-warmest on record but #1, in aggregate.
 
 
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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I just checked with Elliott - he's calling for a chance of an isolated shower. He also added this:

 

 
 
 
As meteorological winter comes to a close, here are some astounding climatological stats from @millersvilleu. For the 2nd time in 4 years, no measurable snow fell at MU in Feb. Both #january2023 and #February2023 will be the 2nd-warmest on record but #1, in aggregate.
 
 

Yea, I am not think we need to head for an Ark Wed/Thur but it has been showing on models for several runs.  Some suites have Lanco a good period of rain.   I called it a clipper but really just a wave.  Unfortunately, I think it is part of our issue for Friday with lack of spacing, 

 

Definitely one of the warmest Jan and Feb ever. 

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29 minutes ago, canderson said:

True, lots of rain tomorrow too. I just kinda meant I fully expect the trend of the warm out to win out Friday - it has for 30 or so consecutive months. 

30 or so is a bit of a stretch, C-PA has had below average months as recently as October and December. This was 2022 as a whole.

image.thumb.png.cab6135739103a42d34c7e05e58725cc.png

 

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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, I am not think we need to head for an Ark Wed/Thur but it has been showing on models for several runs.  Some suites have Lanco a good period of rain.   I called it a clipper but really just a wave.  Unfortunately, I think it is part of our issue for Friday with lack of spacing, 

 

Definitely one of the warmest Jan and Feb ever. 

 

Probably spot on with that assessment. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, I am not think we need to head for an Ark Wed/Thur but it has been showing on models for several runs.  Some suites have Lanco a good period of rain.   I called it a clipper but really just a wave.  Unfortunately, I think it is part of our issue for Friday with lack of spacing, 

 

Definitely one of the warmest Jan and Feb ever. 

Yea that mid-week wave was what was bringing the frontal boundary down to set the edge for Friday. Friday’s event has been timing somewhat faster and the mid-week wave really hasn’t been pressing the front either. Spacing is definitely an issue, but so is the strength of Friday’s system. An already bombed out 976mb coming up the Mississippi out of the Ozarks isn’t ideal. It responds to the block and tries to secondary but the primary is too strong.

There’s going to be some kind of a mix event for most or all of C-PA with this, but going to have to figure out thermals. Most guidance places a deep wedge of low level cold east of the Alleghenies all the way up through 850mb. Typically that’s enough to ensure what would be a significant period of front end snow, but there is prolific warm advection all the way up at 700mb (10k feet) due to the very strong 700mb low associated with the mature primary well west that would cut into that potential. That elevated of a warm nose would indicate to me sleet would be a predominant p-type for a while. I will say when it comes to the more mesoscale thermal features that are common around here I personally prefer the Euro when it comes to global guidance over the GFS… and then short range/high res stuff once it’s close enough. 

So here was 6z Euro.

Hr 87 temps at 925mb

image.thumb.png.7df9575040ac25ce3306f345e09b327c.png

Same hour at 850mb 

image.thumb.png.348a6bdcc37927425e1cc9ebdf47be67.png

 

 

Same hour at 700mb

image.thumb.png.c9db8aab0c8698a2835eb4f9d66a3fd1.png

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z GFS is Canderson land, CMC more Nam like and more snowy thump though eventually over to rain.  

 

To the tune of "The Candyman":

 

Who can bring the rainfall?

Sprinkle it with winds?

Cover it with warmth until it feels like spring,

The Canderson can,

The Canderson can

The Canderson can cause he mixes those things to make it feel like spring...

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