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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Heavy sleet shower just rolled through here. Quite heavy. But the rest of you are probably just seeing plain rain since I basically live on a mountain now at 470’. 

Absolutely pouring here. Our mailman sat on our porch for 10 mins just to get out of the cold rain

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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We continue to see snow mix in here with sleet and rain.  33.  Accums around the mulch.  Surprised this far west.   Winter storm number 1 this week.

Here’s the current initialized HRRR temps at 850mb and 925mb. 

850mb

image.thumb.png.db7443b14f7875ac26cdb5f996aa1558.png

925mb

image.thumb.png.893c4cadbcf25a29bc3f55f35568a7f4.png

Very marginal column up through 700mb but one that is a bit below freezing at the major low levels in eastern PA. The stuff that is currently pinwheeling into western PA and the Pittsburgh area is eventually the area of heavier precip that could drive a full changeover to snow for a brief period later tonight when that gets into the temporarily anchored low level cold temps east of the Alleghenies. That starts in the central counties roughly around UNV and I think that stays above Harrisburg mainly but since there’s some mixing pretty far south into the LSV we’ll have to see. 

 

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8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Here’s the current initialized HRRR temps at 850mb and 925mb. 

850mb

image.thumb.png.db7443b14f7875ac26cdb5f996aa1558.png

925mb

image.thumb.png.893c4cadbcf25a29bc3f55f35568a7f4.png

Very marginal column up through 700mb but one that is a bit below freezing at the major low levels in eastern PA. The stuff that is currently pinwheeling into western PA and the Pittsburgh area is eventually the area of heavier precip that could drive a full changeover to snow for a brief period later tonight when that gets into the temporarily anchored low level cold temps east of the Alleghenies. That starts in the central counties roughly around UNV and I think that stays above Harrisburg mainly but since there’s some mixing pretty far south into the LSV we’ll have to see. 

 

I am only getting any frozen when it pours.  A lot of rain except when it comes down hard.   Just surprised I am getting any with it above freezing at those levels. 

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511 cams showing least a coating on the ground and some slushy roads in and around State College down I-99 at least as far as Port Matilda and possibly Tyrone. Some sleet accum on the grass here. Trying to changeover here but surface temps still a bit warm (around 36ºF).

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We have wet snow covered windows here.  East winds 30, 35 mph driving the slop into the side of the house.    Still probably over half rain but the parachutes sticking to everything.  Very heavy cell, with thunder and lightning, rolling through WV and Western MD.  Poking up above the MD line.

That stuff on the doorstep to R-ville looks like it means business. 

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Day 4 30% severe weather probability already introduced   . Not looking good unless you chase for a living.

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 27, 2023
Updated: Mon Feb 27 10:02:03 UTC 2023
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal
 day4prob.gif
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 127,091 6,597,282 Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Tyler, TX...Tuscaloosa, AL...Longview, TX...
15 % 161,434 25,644,954 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...
D4 Thu, Mar 02, 2023 - Fri, Mar 03, 2023 D7 Sun, Mar 05, 2023 - Mon, Mar 06, 2023
D5 Fri, Mar 03, 2023 - Sat, Mar 04, 2023 D8 Mon, Mar 06, 2023 - Tue, Mar 07, 2023
D6 Sat, Mar 04, 2023 - Sun, Mar 05, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion
   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 270959
   SPC AC 270959

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

   Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

   ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/THU...

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Thursday/Day 4...
   A regional outbreak of severe weather appears increasingly likely
   Thursday afternoon and Thursday night including the potential for
   large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be
   strong. Available guidance is in ample general agreement with the
   east/northeastward-ejection of an upper trough from the southern
   Rockies early Thursday to the Ozarks/ArkLaTex by late Thursday
   night. Owing to a stalling/decaying front early this week,
   respectable low-level moisture will exist across much of the Deep
   South in advance of this approaching upper-level system and its
   related intense deep-layer wind field. Current thinking is that this
   severe potential should steadily increase across central/eastern
   Texas and possibly southeast Oklahoma during the day. This risk
   should only increase/further organize into Thursday evening across
   the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley, and eventually
   the Tennessee Valley late Thursday night.

   ...Friday/Day 5...
   Severe-weather potential is expected to continue to Friday across
   the Southeast States including Georgia/north Florida and the
   Carolinas, and possibly as far north as parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
   This will be as the upper-level trough races northeastward from the
   Lower Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic States.
   Very strong deep-layer winds will coincide with a modestly unstable
   warm sector ahead of a cold front and/or residual convection from
   Thursday night. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes could occur
   across the region.
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