Bubbler86 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, paweather said: I really mean the 540 line in New York. With a H that is in a good position. Just can't get a break this year. It is detailed in depth on the MA thread (too much depth if you ask me) but the models keep underplaying the SER until we get close to an event. If this does not change fast it will end up being the largest bust of the winter IMO. That is not saying much though. It did make me chuckle that you were talking paweather 540 line. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is detailed in depth on the MA thread (too much depth if you ask me) but the models keep underplaying the SER until we get close to an event. If this does not change fast it will end up being the largest bust of the winter IMO. That is not saying much though. It did make me chuckle that you were talking paweather 540 line. LOL HAHAHA!!!! True. Paweather 540 line would be down in FL by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 CMC making its adjustments west as well....the boundary well north of where it was at 0Z. Great position of the high is not helpful when the air beforehand was not cold. The CMC does still transfer and still have a "winter storm" for much of PA but heading in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Mornin' all! I was on vacation all last week so I only loosely kept an eye on the board. By vacation, I don't mean actually going anywhere; rather, just no work while still being stuck at home with a one-year old, two-year old, two dogs, and a wife. Make of that statement what you will Thanks @Bubbler86 for the shoutout on the monthly temp prediction. I see we are at 40.8 heading into the last two days. I think we knock a couple tenths off and come in juuuuust ahead of 1998 for second place all time, only losing out to the impressive 41.3 average from 2017. March looks to be much more reasonable, perhaps even on the chilly side. As others have mentioned, I'm sure our April and May will be plenty miserable to make up for things haha. As for this weekend, I've been watching but consider me on the "meh" side of things. I expect, well, the expected ha. What I mean by that is probably our standard scenario of a brief front-end thump of snow, quickly changing to sleet and plain rain as the secondary development occurs too late, and then hoping for some back-side snow that never comes. This seems like a New England special. As always, I hope to be wrong. Good to be back, cheers mates! Hope the week was a good one. I lol'd at the bolded portion of your post. Yeah, while I wasnt on vacation, I'm only watching with the casual eye, and after looking at nooners (so far), I'm glad i didnt waste much time on this period. Tellies are ok for the period, but MJO is laggin in 7 and likely not enough to offset/overcome the persistent base state...so its just another in a long series of cutters. I'm about out of waiting for better times, as they will likely need to be next year. I'm back on the mentally moving on train if anyone wants to ride along. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 15 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Hope the week was a good one. I lol'd at the bolded portion of your post. Yeah, while I wasnt on vacation, I'm only watching with the casual eye, and after looking at nooners (so far), I'm glad i didnt waste much time on this period. Tellies are ok for the period, but MJO is laggin in 7 and likely not enough to offset/overcome the persistent base state...so its just another in a long series of cutters. I'm about out of waiting for better times, as they will likely need to be next year. I'm back on the mentally moving on train if anyone wants to ride along. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 @Blizzard of 93 I know you will keep the hopes up and that is a good thing but to me, the writing is on the wall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, paweather said: @Blizzard of 93 I know you will keep the hopes up and that is a good thing but to me, the writing is on the wall. I promised myself no more stupid photoshops this week but "writing on the wall" is hard to resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 The SER is primarily out of the picture/east based in the second week of March...if anyone cares....on the last few GFS runs and I believe GEFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 35 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Hope the week was a good one. I lol'd at the bolded portion of your post. Yeah, while I wasnt on vacation, I'm only watching with the casual eye, and after looking at nooners (so far), I'm glad i didnt waste much time on this period. Tellies are ok for the period, but MJO is laggin in 7 and likely not enough to offset/overcome the persistent base state...so its just another in a long series of cutters. I'm about out of waiting for better times, as they will likely need to be next year. I'm back on the mentally moving on train if anyone wants to ride along. Pack a few extras in the cooler brotha', because I'm with ya on that train. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 37 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Hope the week was a good one. I lol'd at the bolded portion of your post. Yeah, while I wasnt on vacation, I'm only watching with the casual eye, and after looking at nooners (so far), I'm glad i didnt waste much time on this period. Tellies are ok for the period, but MJO is laggin in 7 and likely not enough to offset/overcome the persistent base state...so its just another in a long series of cutters. I'm about out of waiting for better times, as they will likely need to be next year. I'm back on the mentally moving on train if anyone wants to ride along. I"ve been saying winter is dead since mid January. My train is already at the continental divide! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The SER is primarily out of the picture/east based in the second week of March...if anyone cares....on the last few GFS runs and I believe GEFS as well. That's been my window - I never liked this upcoming weekend. Pattern looks to ruffle and shuffle to a more favorable look that finally combats the SER...I guess it's easy to think what's been happening will continue to persist but I can't shake my feeling that it's going to get favorable for us in the middle of March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 39 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Hope the week was a good one. I lol'd at the bolded portion of your post. Yeah, while I wasnt on vacation, I'm only watching with the casual eye, and after looking at nooners (so far), I'm glad i didnt waste much time on this period. Tellies are ok for the period, but MJO is laggin in 7 and likely not enough to offset/overcome the persistent base state...so its just another in a long series of cutters. I'm about out of waiting for better times, as they will likely need to be next year. I'm back on the mentally moving on train if anyone wants to ride along. 22 minutes ago, sauss06 said: 17 minutes ago, paweather said: @Blizzard of 93 I know you will keep the hopes up and that is a good thing but to me, the writing is on the wall. 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Pack a few extras in the cooler brotha', because I'm with ya on that train. 2 minutes ago, canderson said: I"ve been saying winter is dead since mid January. My train is already at the continental divide! Sounds like it's me against the thread - what could go wrong for me? LOL Snow's comin'! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, canderson said: I"ve been saying winter is dead since mid January. My train is already at the continental divide! My train crossed the continental divide in 11 weeks. (and that's for real) 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sounds like it's me against the thread - what could go wrong for me? LOL Snow's comin'! Not the whole thread...I am here to discuss weather as well...good or bad snow wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Pack a few extras in the cooler brotha', because I'm with ya on that train. Absolutely. I love being in good company. I'll pack the cooler full for my weather weenie pals. WAR has won all year, and cannot be suppressed enough. I saw bubble's post about the ridging being gone, but my only response to that is how many 240+ "better looking" patterns have materialized this season. Of course we all want to believe (and many of us see it on LR progs), but the look never really holds....it folds. That is why I look at tellies cause they are IMO the dog that wags the tail wrt to pattern progression. We've had decent looks that haven't done much, and we've had decent looks falter. Only thing that hasn't wavered in regards to our base state... is WAR/SER. It literally and figuratively has held the hot hand all winter. Was hoping SSW event would propagate down and get us some help, but if it is....it better show up soon. That convo is above my pay grade though, so maybe Mag or others can chime in as to where/when they think that factors in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That's been my window - I never liked this upcoming weekend. Pattern looks to ruffle and shuffle to a more favorable look that finally combats the SER...I guess it's easy to think what's been happening will continue to persist but I can't shake my feeling that it's going to get in the middle of March. Not sure where your gut is getting that feeling, but lets hope you are onto something. BTW for all you lawn lovers, my chickweek spots in my yard are bloomin. Going to have to get at it early this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sounds like it's me against the thread - what could go wrong for me? LOL Snow's comin'! You know were all secretly pulling for you to be right..... My gut is only feeling the leftovers i just threw down. Weather natsomuch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I will say one thing, this is a tospy turvy winter with Stormchaserchuck now one of the head snow hounds on the MA LR thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I will say one thing, this is a tospy turvy winter with Stormchaserchuck now one of the head snow hounds on the MA LR thread. He is very bullish on mid March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 only thing I'll say I'm hanging a thread of hope on is that the MR guidance is showing persistent troughing, but as PNA still sucks, its a look of suppression for anything small and once a biggun comes along, its back to cutterville. Verbatim the GFS Op shows about a week of cold post weekend cutter, but nothing appreciable until the next cutter comes AOA 3/12-13. Not saying something cant pop, but no big dogs in this hunt until it may be too warm. i need not remind yall how good things looked just a couple days ago. Hell, i was pulling my dusty chips outta storage and getting ready to throw some down. Telles backed off and whalla....here we are and thats pretty much where we've been (thinks of window crack pic I posted a little while ago) Only other caveat to consider is that the GFS ens twins look nothing alike as we get to 3 12 ish and by that time, were going to need a LOT of help for something notable. It can happen, but things better realign quick. Clocks still tickin but times almost up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: He is very bullish on mid March. Kind of like Blizz rooting on the muggy 90's. I have rarely seem him bullish. Maybe he is trolling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Euro 10:1 snow for the current storm/next 24 hours. Like the HRRR, not too shabby for some in this forum and even some for the LSV. I hope we are not to the point where 1/3 to 1/2 the forum getting a accumulating snow (possibly) is not interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Mish mash has commenced here...sleet, snow and rain. 42 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, canderson said: I"ve been saying winter is dead since mid January. My train is already at the continental divide! Keep coming west. Winter's not dead here... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: only thing I'll say I'm hanging a thread of hope on is that the MR guidance is showing persistent troughing, but as PNA still sucks, its a look of suppression for anything small and once a biggun comes along, its back to cutterville. Verbatim the GFS Op shows about a week of cold post weekend cutter, but nothing appreciable until the next cutter comes AOA 3/12-13. Not saying something cant pop, but no big dogs in this hunt until it may be too warm. i need not remind yall how good things looked just a couple days ago. Hell, i was pulling my dusty chips outta storage and getting ready to throw some down. Telles backed off and whalla....here we are and thats pretty much where we've been (thinks of window crack pic I posted a little while ago) Only other caveat to consider is that the GFS ens twins look nothing alike as we get to 3 12 ish and by that time, were going to need a LOT of help for something notable. It can happen, but things better realign quick. Clocks still tickin but times almost up. speaking of clocks. Springing ahead next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Euro still thump happy for Friday. Well positioned high Cads many to a win. Low comes up TN into OH Valley then transfers to the coast off NJ. NE parts of the forum get 1-2 feet in the next 4 days albeit a warm up in between. 10:1 of just Friday below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Bones Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Moderate sleet here ATM. 40*. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, sauss06 said: speaking of clocks. Springing ahead next weekend an extra hour to stare at brown grass........... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Light snow/rain mix and 37 here now. I am probably too far south to get any accums like some North and East of here but still good to see the flakes. HRRR has it snowing into Philly and South Jersey late this afternoon/into the evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Light snow/rain mix and 37 here now. I am probably too far south to get any accums like some North and East of here but still good to see the flakes. HRRR has it snowing into Philly and South Jersey late this afternoon/into the evening. I doubt I get anything frozen sitting at 47 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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