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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The Euro and CMC are Nesis storms next weekend...no posts?   I am starting to think that Grandmaster was right and the negative's have overtaken some.   They could be off their rockers but 5 days away! 

Already issuing the it’s too warm for snow watches this week when it probably makes a run at 60ºF Wed/Thur ahead of this system lol. 

I hate to be the counter to all the good model runs overnight as I’m pretty high on this storm threat for us but can’t forget the GFS/GEFS which is still running it’s track (mean track on GEFS) too high and it’s kind of went the wrong way for us a bit in the 0 and 6z runs for that. I’m sure there’s still front end in that scenario but I’m go big or go home at this point. Like I said recently, if I saw another snow to mix/junk system in the next 10 years it’d be too soon. This one’s going to have a big snowfall swath for someone, so hopefully it’s us. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Already issuing the it’s too warm for snow watches this week when it probably makes a run at 60ºF Wed/Thur ahead of this system lol. 

I hate to be the counter to all the good model runs overnight as I’m pretty high on this storm threat for us but can’t forget the GFS/GEFS which is still running it’s track (mean track on GEFS) too high and it’s kind of went the wrong way for us a bit in the 0 and 6z runs for that. I’m sure there’s still front end in that scenario but I’m go big or go home at this point. Like I said recently, if I saw another snow to mix/junk system in the next 10 years it’d be too soon. This one’s going to have a big snowfall swath for someone, so hopefully it’s us. 

Mag has issued a March Sun Angle watch for all members of the board.  If all 4 models agreed on something 5 days out I would think we are toast anyway.  LOL.   ICON is more CMC like. 

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2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

The stuff gets auctioned off on Friday starting @4pm I have no old signs to sell. 

In some areas of the country there are Monday Markets. They are cool if one decides to take a day off work.  Not weekend crowds.   With that said, the auction is in trouble per the CMC and Euro.  LOL.

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Yesterday was only our 8th sub freezing day of the winter with a high of only 31.2. Typically through yesterday we would have seen 22 such days already this winter. This underscores how unusually warm this winter season has been across the area! Back to well above normal temps again today with sun returning and highs into the low 50's. Chillier tomorrow with some mixed precipitation arriving late in the day. Here in Chester County it will be mainly some sleet changing to rain before much accumulation. However, you would only have to go north by around 20 miles or so toward the Lehigh Valley to see some accumulating snow and sleet tomorrow evening. Milder again Tuesday through Thursday before another potential winter event may effect us by Friday into next Saturday.
Records for today: High 70 (1930) / Low 6 below (1914) / Precipitation 1.83" (1929) / Snow 8" (2010). That 2 day storm in February 2010 was the last of 3 major snowstorms that month with 13.5" falling from that storm. That followed the 18.3" that fell on the 5th/6th and the 26.8" on the 9th/10th. We ended the month with 62.8" of snow - the 2nd greatest monthly total behind only the 69.8" that fell in February 1899.
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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Already issuing the it’s too warm for snow watches this week when it probably makes a run at 60ºF Wed/Thur ahead of this system lol. 

I hate to be the counter to all the good model runs overnight as I’m pretty high on this storm threat for us but can’t forget the GFS/GEFS which is still running it’s track (mean track on GEFS) too high and it’s kind of went the wrong way for us a bit in the 0 and 6z runs for that. I’m sure there’s still front end in that scenario but I’m go big or go home at this point. Like I said recently, if I saw another snow to mix/junk system in the next 10 years it’d be too soon. This one’s going to have a big snowfall swath for someone, so hopefully it’s us. 

Would you say that this time frame is a little early in the pattern? I was thinking the following week or two might be a better chance as the pattern starts to break down. Next weekend still seems precarious to me as it will take perfect timing to avoid either suppression or a cutter. 

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55 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Would you say that this time frame is a little early in the pattern? I was thinking the following week or two might be a better chance as the pattern starts to break down. Next weekend still seems precarious to me as it will take perfect timing to avoid either suppression or a cutter. 

It is actually exciting that we have the chance late next week that Possibly going into a colder period beyond.  I know the spinginista's do not like it.  Nice out now.  47. 

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8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Long way to….CTP is in the game… 

Everything has been trending northwest the last 24 hours of model runs. Nothing is stopping it from continuing to do so. It has been the trend all winter for storms to cut to our west. The writing is on the wall for this one. 

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