Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Central PA Winter 2022/2023


 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No snow yet in Marysville.

Temp currently 30 with 18 dew

Same here.  Temp 30.6 with a dew point of 18 and overcast skies.  BTW, my high on Thursday was 72.5 with not much wind.  Highly unusual combo in wintertime when abnormally warm temps are typically accompanied with breezy conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This morning's low of 22.8 was our coldest morning since February 5th. Today may be our 1st day that stays below freezing since the 4th. We could also see some occasional snow showers this afternoon which could leave a dusting in some areas. Milder tomorrow with rain arriving by Monday PM could be mixed with a little snow at the start.
Records for today: High 77 degrees (1930) / Low 2 below zero (1914) / Precipitation 1.11" (1916) / Snow 5.5" (2010)
image.png.d12f6b8af7b35ea04e1766eedb1cd348.png
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said:

And then Euro is “right where we want it range” for next weekend and still crickets in here. It’s not even March yet weenies, get your heads in the game! :D

image.png.898c377c8d1eb0b07d66b47c187eb6f9.png

I told @Bubbler86 that I thought we'd have to wait until the following week as I think the pattern is better for us in the middle of the month. Maybe we get lucky with this one and score again the following week?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, canderson said:

giphy.gif
 

:D

What did you tell me?  I missed it?  LOL.  Harrisburg was out of the game unfortunately.  Definitely a nice winter day here though too cold to be outside.  33 for the high.  I was not home so cannot tell how long it snowed here but we had mulch snow.  It showed about 2 hourish east of Chambersburg.  Was bemoaning being north but probably received more than I was expecting. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, GrandmasterB said:

And then Euro is “right where we want it range” for next weekend and still crickets in here. It’s not even March yet weenies, get your heads in the game! :D

image.png.898c377c8d1eb0b07d66b47c187eb6f9.png

I just got back home after a long day of shopping with the family.

Great to see that we are still very much in the game!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

What did you tell me?  I missed it?  LOL.  Harrisburg was out of the game unfortunately.  Definitely a nice winter day here though too cold to be outside.  33 for the high.  I was not home so cannot tell how long it snowed here but we had mulch snow.  It showed about 2 hourish east of Chambersburg.  Was bemoaning being north but probably received more than I was expecting. 

Oh just joking - referring to my post about those municipalities using resources just to use them. LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My maint ake away from the 18Z GFS is that next weekend is still in play and tennis chances in the first half March are going to have to catch the rare warm days.   BRRRR

18z GFS took a positive step for CTP. 
I think that we are in a great spot, especially considering the Euro & Canadian being further south with the snow bullseye.
Hopefully the tracks converge over the next couple of days to produce a snowstorm for all of CTP.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This Monday/Monday night thing is still fairly intriguing. The progged secondary low popping off the Delmarva acts to anchor solidly sub 0ºC 925/850mb temps east of the Alleghenies while the associated slug of precip crosses PA on guidance like the Euro/3k NAM while guidance like GFS/RGEM shows the same scenario but doesn’t quite pull in/anchor those kind of temps outside of about the NE quarter of of PA.  It kind of presents a similar scenario to what we saw Wednesday with the arrival of heavier precip delivering flakes to places it wasn’t even in the forecast. Secondary low is key in this circumstance. Front end mixing is probable in spots as well but the main potential occurs when the secondary gets going. This possibility is being brought by the developing blocky regime up top and a 50/50 type low.

18z Euro by the hour:

HR 57image.thumb.png.fe6e5f579a15824bc5f0fbb9ba6830fc.png

HR 58

image.thumb.png.f4da2bef2512ac5974d74f9d02d89155.png

HR 59

image.thumb.png.bef22b8a53e2f67d30c8a2cb95dd0479.png

See how the column aloft responds by cooling as the secondary low develops. These are also hourly plots. That darker blue is heavy 1-2”/hr type snowfall rates. So what’s on the table is after the front end mixing/frozen that probably favors interior central and NE PA (where this might be an all snow event) is a 2-4 hr period of heavier precip that flips to snow as the coastal gets going. And then also sort of similarly to last Wednesday, once this coastal moves away… we lose the column and eventually surface temps moderate going into later Tuesday and mid-week. But that’s after most or all of the precip is done.  The warmth won’t be nearly as prolific as last week obviously.

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the 3/3-4 event, it’s definitely starting to catch my attention with the Euro op starting to pick up on it the last few runs. GFS has been the most wound up of the bunch in terms of low strength, and today vs 12z the 18z has edged southeast a bit. Ensemble guidance has been painting pretty good support for a swath across C-PA that has been building.

Trends, at MDT:

Euro EPS:

1962050033_ECMWF225.thumb.png.3ddfd0719dfca076e0c3e53f755f1f61.png

 

GEFS:

1721571713_GFS-ENS225.thumb.png.b01675ec4b8109651b5048a3c066b421.png

 

Snow plumes at MDT:

12z Euro EPS

image.thumb.png.d9c1dd9c2bc7daea7fb8c2ec9bb6981a.png

 

18z GEFS

image.thumb.png.94f91e8ebdf01788453d2e04c833d1fc.png

 

Several big hits in both ensembles and you can also see the difference between the two camps for Monday night with the Euro suite adding snow from that as well. The really big hits do drive up the mean but both ensembles are presenting most members showing accumulating snow and 18z GEFS has a little clustering of members in that 5-10” range. The thing with the GFS/GEFS suite is that it’s collectively more amped and rides that snow/mix line through PA. Early in the game for anything certain but I do like the signal for it. 

 

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...