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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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The 6z GFS actually currently has the middle ground track.

The 0z Euro drastically changed & now has a track that slides off of the Mid Atlantic coast with precipitation not even getting to PA.

The 0z Canadian has an initial low that gets to southern Illinois and then responds to the blocking and quickly redevelops the low off of the Mid Atlantic coast. It still blasts CTP with heavy snow, but gets there differently than the GFS.

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18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS actually currently has the middle ground track.

The 0z Euro drastically changed & now has a track that slides off of the Mid Atlantic coast with precipitation not even getting to PA.

The 0z Canadian has an initial low that gets to southern Illinois and then responds to the blocking and quickly redevelops the low off of the Mid Atlantic coast. It still blasts CTP with heavy snow, but gets there differently than the GFS.

We all want the Euro to be the top dog but it keeps joining the other gang and not being dependable.   38 in the 'Ville this AM. 

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We all want the Euro to be the top dog but it keeps joining the other gang and not being dependable. 

Yes, the Euro has not been what it used to be years ago.

Yesterday it has the low in Missouri tracking north & overnight it moved the low over 1,000 miles to the east off of the mid Atlantic coast. 

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37 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, the Euro has not been what it used to be years ago.

Yesterday it has the low in Missouri tracking north & overnight it moved the low over 1,000 miles to the east off of the mid Atlantic coast. 

I would pay for either 6zGFS CMC scenarios to play out right now.  GFS basically snows on me for all but 2 days.  IF this would be my winter down here....at this juncture, I'd sign in blood for it to verify.

Looking like the blocking may be legit (and enough to keep things further south).  Sure hope this look holds (or improves).

Good news is that its only a week out.

Bad news......its still a week out.

 

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We have already seen our high temperature for today at 52.3 degrees this morning at 4:58am. We are down to 43.8 here at 8am. Tonight should be the coldest night in a couple weeks and there is an increasing chance of some light snow across much of the county tomorrow late morning and afternoon. All models show some very minor snow accumulations during the day with temps struggling to pass the freezing mark. Warmer again by Sunday with snow quickly changing to rain on Monday.
Records for today: High 74 (1985) / Low 0.3 below zero (2015) / Precipitation 2.47" (2016)/ Snow 5.5' (1907)
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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wonder if we see a WWA for the LSV tomorrow. 

Doesn't sound like it - here is the text from their Hazardous Outlook from this morning: (there isn't even a mention of anything tomorrow)

 

A potent upper level disturbance and wave of low pressure at the
surface will move out of the midwest and likely spread a period of
snow or mixed precipitation across the region Monday afternoon and
night with potentially some impacts to travel.
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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wonder if we see a WWA for the LSV tomorrow. 

 

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Doesn't sound like it - here is the text from their Hazardous Outlook from this morning: (there isn't even a mention of anything tomorrow)

 

A potent upper level disturbance and wave of low pressure at the
surface will move out of the midwest and likely spread a period of
snow or mixed precipitation across the region Monday afternoon and
night with potentially some impacts to travel.

 

What's interesting is that they have a chance of snow in my forecast for tomorrow, but nothing but plain rain on Monday. 

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20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

 

What's interesting is that they have a chance of snow in my forecast for tomorrow, but nothing but plain rain on Monday. 

Some 12Z models put down 1/2-2" over parts of the LSV tomorrow and below freezing.  Some do not.  Maybe wait until we get a better consensus. 

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16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some 12Z models put down 1/2-2" over parts of the LSV tomorrow and below freezing.  Some do not.  Maybe wait until we get a better consensus. 

Right now CTP has upper 30s with a chance of light rain/snow for here. I'd imagine some places with elevation might have a nice little wintry scene tomorrow. 

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