Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, philliesmd said: 68 and taking a break from mulching leaves with the mower 9 degree difference just to your east but at 800 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 24 higher than MDT. MDT sitting at 52 right now! CXY 61. yeah same im just behind the air port in middle town had lunch with dad. no way we hit the 74 they forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ruin said: yeah same im just behind the air port in middle town had lunch with dad. no way we hit the 74 they forecasted MDT has jumped to 55 since I posted that but still well behind most others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: MDT has jumped to 55 since I posted that but still well behind most others. It is up to 66 here now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 66f in Hbg according to my watch. Beautiful lunch on my new fav bench 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It is up to 66 here now... There should be some storms or something between and MDT. You are 10 over them. The springanista purists are going to be up in arms if MDT does not catch up...for the records. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 66 now. Should hit 70 easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: There should be some storms or something between and MDT. You are 10 over them. The springanista purists are going to be up in arms if MDT does not catch up...for the records. "We" only got to the upper 50s or low 60s today! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, canderson said: 66 now. Should hit 70 easy. 67...keep up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just hit 60 here. MDT just dropped from 56 to 55 (wind change)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 they say 66 but still showing 58 here right behind the airpot tho this happens a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Another reason why I don't like snow maps - there are many types of maps available, and it's easy to cherry pick (unknowingly I'm sure at times) a map that either shows a lot of snow or very little. I think all of it creates both confusion and hard feelings. Some maps include sleet, some do not. I think some are based on different ratios than others. And then, there's the positive snow depth maps, which to me at least would seem to be what matters most...when the storm ends, just how much snow is going to be on the ground... Here is the 6z GFS positive snow depth map - copy paste from our neighbors to our south so it only includes the southern tier (sorry folks north of the turnpike) but for a model run that "looked" like a pure or mostly pure snow event...this looks very underwhelming: (it's a 1-4" event for us. and the storm has moved out at this point) I typically don’t even bother with +snow depth maps as I don’t think they’re really meant to be applied to actual event snowfalls. It seems like those guys use them the most and it’s kind of the same mentality as saying “well it was warm the day before so the snow isn’t going to lay on anything”. The GFS has over an inch of QPF in 6 hrs in that DC-Baltimore corridor that’s mostly conditional snow. Obviously the D8-10 disclaimers aside, If that actually happened as modeled (which looked to be 2”+ hr rates for a few hours at one point), there’s absolutely no way you’d only have a plus depth change of 1-4” at the end of the event as it has for that area. It is a lot to consider with all the different snow maps. I warn in here at least once or twice a season about using TT snowmaps in particular since they include sleet/ice with the 10:1 snow totaling. But each method has their flaws/limitations and it’s important to know what kind of setup you’re looking at when trying to determine the best snow map to use for a given area for an event. Do we have marginal temps aloft in the column? Abnormally cold temps? Climo (which is >10:1 in Jan/Feb in C-PA), etc, etc. For example, given the marginal nature of literally every single snowfall that has come our way this winter in our general area…I’ve been mostly paying most attention to whichever map was less out of Kuchera vs straight 10:1. Typically, the Kuchera calculates higher than 10:1 around here. But since temps (surface and aloft) have been so marginal and warmer than average climo in the snow events that have materialized in C-PA…it’s been putting out less than 10:1 in most circumstances in our region this winter. For that D8-10 event, The 8-12”+ the straight 10:1 puts out in DC-Baltimore corridor is more of a 6-9” on the Kuchera (implying <10:1). I think that’s more than reasonable considering what the model is outputting in terms of conditional snow and temps. The 10:1 is reasonable too, really. Neither of those methods involve actual dynamics related to snow crystal growth. You can be 32ºF at the surface but if the lift is in the right spot in the snow growth zone aloft inside a death band you can still put down much greater than 10:1 ratios. Using the right snow map is definitely not a perfected science haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 EC is a Sauss mowing special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 67ºF here currently. It went from 35ºF to 58ºF in about an hour this morning (8-9am) when the winds finally mixed down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I typically don’t even bother with +snow depth maps as I don’t think they’re really meant to be applied to actual event snowfalls. It seems like those guys use them the most and it’s kind of the same mentality as saying “well it was warm the day before so the snow isn’t going to lay on anything”. The GFS has over an inch of QPF in 6 hrs in that DC-Baltimore corridor that’s mostly conditional snow. Obviously the D8-10 disclaimers aside, If that actually happened as modeled (which looked to be 2”+ hr rates for a few hours at one point), there’s absolutely no way you’d only have a plus depth change of 1-4” at the end of the event as it has for that area. It is a lot to consider with all the different snow maps. I warn in here at least once or twice a season about using TT snowmaps in particular since they include sleet/ice with the 10:1 snow totaling. But each method has their flaws/limitations and it’s important to know what kind of setup you’re looking at when trying to determine the best snow map to use for a given area for an event. Do we have marginal temps aloft in the column? Abnormally cold temps? Climo (which is >10:1 in Jan/Feb in C-PA), etc, etc. For example, given the marginal nature of literally every single snowfall that has come our way this winter in our general area…I’ve been mostly paying most attention to whichever map was less out of Kuchera vs straight 10:1. Typically, the Kuchera calculates higher than 10:1 around here. But since temps (surface and aloft) have been so marginal and warmer than average climo in the snow events that have materialized in C-PA…it’s been putting out less than 10:1 in most circumstances in our region this winter. For that D8-10 event, The 8-12”+ the straight 10:1 puts out in DC-Baltimore corridor is more of a 6-9” on the Kuchera (implying <10:1). I think that’s more than reasonable considering what the model is outputting in terms of conditional snow and temps. The 10:1 is reasonable too, really. Neither of those methods involve actual dynamics related to snow crystal growth. You can be 32ºF at the surface but if the lift is in the right spot in the snow growth zone aloft inside a death band you can still put down much greater than 10:1 ratios. Using the right snow map is definitely not a perfected science haha. Thank you for responding. Great information and lots of learning with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just hit 60 here. MDT just dropped from 56 to 55 (wind change)! Pretty remarkable - 68 currently at home and here at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Pretty remarkable - 68 currently at home and here at work. MDT up top 60 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Back to MAG's post and QPF numbers - the GFS and Euro agree that Mammoth CA receives between 8-10" of QPF over the next 7 days...all of course, will be snow. And, they're talking about 20-1 ratios according to the local NWS office. Mammoth Mountain now feels that with the amount of water content in their current snowpack plus what's coming over the next week, they'll be skiing into at least the middle of July if not August. (that would be without any snow after next week which is HIGHLY unlikely.) The current base is 13' at Main and 20' at the summit. I'm sort of excited for my trip. Starting to wonder if we'll have travel issues heading up CA 203 into Mammoth if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: MDT up top 60 now. There is most definitely a water influence in today's temps - at 2pm, it was 77 at BWI and 61 at the Inner Harbor. Even more impressive...it was 49 at Annapolis at 2pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: There is most definitely a water influence in today's temps - at 2pm, it was 77 at BWI and 61 at the Inner Harbor. Even more impressive...it was 49 at Annapolis at 2pm. yeah local weather guy pounding his chest saying 74 I dont buy the model low balling the numbers saying only 65. he about all but just called his own model trash but put it on tv for people to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: EC is a Sauss mowing special. Winter's dead. Embrace the chilly spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Winter's dead. Embrace the chilly spring. Nah, I think winter has some snow for us. (Or Met spring to be correct) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, canderson said: Winter's dead. Embrace the chilly spring. Last 70ºF day in Harrisburg until sometime in April, buy or sell? Lol 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Back to MAG's post and QPF numbers - the GFS and Euro agree that Mammoth CA receives between 8-10" of QPF over the next 7 days...all of course, will be snow. And, they're talking about 20-1 ratios according to the local NWS office. Mammoth Mountain now feels that with the amount of water content in their current snowpack plus what's coming over the next week, they'll be skiing into at least the middle of July if not August. (that would be without any snow after next week which is HIGHLY unlikely.) The current base is 13' at Main and 20' at the summit. I'm sort of excited for my trip. Starting to wonder if we'll have travel issues heading up CA 203 into Mammoth if this keeps up. I still can’t over higher elevations of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties getting 2-5 FEET with isolated 7-8’ possible this weekend. What a winter in the SW US and Rockies. I think it was LA NWS’s first issued blizzard warning since 1989. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Last 70ºF day in Harrisburg until sometime in April, buy or sell? Lol Sell. Cool March it appears! 69 and oh so fine at 3 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, canderson said: Sell. Cool March it appears! 69 and oh so fine at 3 pm. Is that a temp or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just hit 72.1 degrees for ytd high temp. Seems likely I'll tack on one or two more degrees. Incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Wow again. 3pm ob at CXY is 72 while at MDT it's 62. River effect?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: Wow again. 3pm ob at CXY is 72 while at MDT it's 62. River effect?? I think @Itstrainingtime called upper 50's to low 60's for MDT so he nailed that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Is that a temp or something else? Why not both? Reminds me of a joke. What do you call the sweat produced by two Arkansans having sex? Relative humidity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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