paweather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Snow was 10 mins rain and snow and snow 39 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 57 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: My temp is 42.2 so I'm not too thrilled for my chances. LOL This post aged very well - snow/sleet mix in Maytown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This post aged very well - snow/sleet mix in Maytown. Congrats! ICON got this one right. LOL. No matter how low the initial stats, this could be a stat padder. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Congrats! ICON got this one right. LOL. No matter how low the initial stats, this could be a stat padder. LOL. It goes down officially as a T as I've already flipped over to plain rain. I in no way thought I'd see ANY snow falling today, so this is absolutely a win! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Back to light/SN nothing om the accum. side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It goes down officially as a T as I've already flipped over to plain rain. I in no way thought I'd see ANY snow falling today, so this is absolutely a win! The question is, does Elliott see it? LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The question is, does Elliott see it? LOL Maybe not - there was no snow at work, which is much closer to MU than Maytown is. Maybe he temporarily shit the blinds for an hour? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Dumping rain here the past 20 mins. The snow was minimal - a trace at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 GFS looks sort of intriguing for next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, paweather said: Back to light/SN nothing om the accum. side. here in Etown flipping back n forth w/ occasional parachute mixed in w/ pingers n light rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Back to rain - Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: here in Etown flipping back n forth w/ occasional parachute mixed in w/ pingers n light rain. A little wintry bonus for us this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Started out as snow quickly coated the ground, now it changed to sleet. Some of that sleet is big crystals coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: GFS looks sort of intriguing for next weekend... It sure does. So does the CMC. Just have to hope "base state" the models are basing it on does not change. Will the blocking really be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Snowing heavily here in Danville in the Upper Susquehanna Valley! HUGE flakes covering everything. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Big flakes and kinda a surprise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: I’m not a fan of the MJO backtrack loop back into 7, which serves to delay what I think is has to come at some point. We are seeing the fruits of the stratwarm event propagating into the troposphere with the developing blocking that eventually retrogrades into a nice -NAO block and overall blocking over the top. PNA remains solidly negative on all guidance, even on the farther ranges of the GFS extended and Euro weeklies. We’ll have to contend with some degree of western troughing and continued relentless - temp anomalies biased toward the western half of the country. I think the real change for us comes after the EPO and WPO reverse to negative… which guidance has been showing happening during the first week of March. Extended guidance then keeps those teleconnections there. If/when that sets up, the combo of that and the blocking over the top via the -NAO should put us into a decidedly colder and more favorable regime for snow chances despite the -PNA. I felt a progressive MJO pulse that continued into 8-1-2 without looping would have driven that kind of change much sooner. But I think we’re going to contend with it sooner or later. The hope is it’s soon enough to salvage some decent snow opportunities without it being too offensive to the spring crowd. In the meantime, we’re going to continue to be vulnerable to cutters and in and out cold shots as there is ample cold available on our side of the hemisphere now. Big beneficiaries of the developing -NAO blocking the next 10-15 days without the implied Pac help (EPO/WPO) would appear to be upstate NY and a good portion of interior New England. Deterministic ensemble guidance is indicating that some of those folks are going to go a long way towards recouping a lot of their big time snow deficits. Thanks for the thoughts and understood. I get what your feeling wrt the progressive movement regarding the MJO and am not sure how it plays out. I was thinking more along the lines of the amplitude being shown - as well as the verbatim assumption that it progresses into P8 quickly at said amplitude. That, coupled with the AO/NAO trending notably into neg departures at that timeframe could bode well on the back end of winter here in the east. I've not looked much into the EPO and hope that it going neg is also another one to add into the good trends. I've personally written off the PNA as damaged goods wrt being any help in the east, and yes, am still fearful that even as the Nina base state is waning, the persistence of the -PNA is a huge stick in the spoke of our winter weather wheels here in the east. We'd be silly to think otherwise, and assuming that base state remains intact, as well as the WAR (that is likely a byproduct of the -PNA keeping the troughiness out west) ...we need other signals to be more pronounced to offset said base state IMO. Thats my thinking anyway, and I'm sure more goes into it than what I'm sharing. it hasnt worked out yet this winter,but if the signals verify as depicted, we may have our shot at some real winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It sure does. So does the CMC. Just have to hope "base state" the models are basing it on does not change. Will the blocking really be there. Even on the GFS (I didn't look at the CMC yet) the primary wasn't in the best position for the southern tier for a snowstorm...if this indeed turns into a primary to the west/secondary development on the coast, we're going to need timing and good fortune. But...we have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Even on the GFS (I didn't look at the CMC yet) the primary wasn't in the best position for the southern tier for a snowstorm...if this indeed turns into a primary to the west/secondary development on the coast, we're going to need timing and good fortune. But...we have a chance. The lack of cold air around would indeed make your comment very true but at this point, any winter storm is a bonus so not going to quibble. GFS wise the high is in a good position so verbatim I doubt you or I switch to plain rain with that track, but we do lose 850 and 700's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Snowing heavily here in Danville in the Upper Susquehanna Valley! HUGE flakes covering everything. You mention USV and I was corrected on that earlier this year so curious what you guys call the USV? Apparently the USV is actually in NY per a NY'er that corrected me. I never knew that, but I think my view was PA specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You mention USV and I was corrected on that earlier this year so curious what you guys call the USV? Apparently the USV is actually in NY per a NY'er that corrected me. I never knew that, but I think my view was PA specific. CTP actually had a map of this years ago - when they refer to the "upper, middle, lower", "upper" is north of where the west branch cuts off, "middle" is between that point and where the Juniata enters the main stream Susquehanna, and "lower" is below that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The lack of cold air around would indeed make your comment very true but at this point, any winter storm is a bonus so not going to quibble. GFS wise the high is in a good position so verbatim I doubt you or I switch to plain rain with that track, but we do lose 850 and 700's. And there is some blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: CTP actually had a map of this years ago - when they refer to the "upper, middle, lower", "upper" is north of where the west branch cuts off, "middle" is between that point and where the Juniata enters the main stream Susquehanna, and "lower" is below that. A quick Google search shows that there are various interpretations of this - including what Bubbler was told about the upper valley being in NY state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: CTP actually had a map of this years ago - when they refer to the "upper, middle, lower", "upper" is north of where the west branch cuts off, "middle" is between that point and where the Juniata enters the main stream Susquehanna, and "lower" is below that. This is what I was showed which made it appear different. I was DM'ed by someone in the Upper NY thread. LOL. Technically a sliver of PA is in upper on that map but prior to this Dm convo from NY I had always considered Williamsport the USV. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, Superstorm said: And there is some blocking . There is actually some blocking as early as next week so still worth watching model runs and tracking. The main thing on the GFS for me is how cold it is for much of the beginning of March. There is a 1-2 day period where it warms up due to S/W flow from a cutter going to our west but it is winter cold after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 @Bubbler86 - it does not appear as if MU saw any snow this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Bubbler86 - it does not appear as if MU saw any snow this morning. The blinds were shut! LOL. Thanks for the update. I was curious. Maybe Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 IF is a big word, but man IF all this rain were snow............................................... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 it is flat out dumping rain in Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 WOW! This is 100 no need to change locked in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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