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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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51 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

#Snowtown #BaseState #NewNormal lol

LOX’s discussion is pretty fun. Also mentioned in their full discussion in addition to 2-5feet of snow above 4k feet is the possibility that downtown LA goes 8 consecutive days without cracking 60ºF if the temp forecasts are correct. 

 

I lived near the Grapevine in 1975-78 I Graduated from Hart High School in the Santa Clarita Valley. I have been watching this area for over 40 years now. If they were ever to get as much snow as they did when I was there, This year appears to be the winner.  Sorry for the pictures being sideways but here was one of my first adventures of being in an actual blizzard at the Grapevine  in 77. 3-4 ft of snow for days. Caught at the Caravan Hotel.  They helicoptered food to the hotel as hundreds were stranded. MY pictures were all the proof. My 1071 Ford torino car was buried along I-5 and the picture below is before the main storm hit.  It took me and my friend over four hours  to unbury it.  They used snowblowers from Tahoe area to clear the interstate. Never had seen it snow so hard anywhere as it snowed at 5 inch an hour rates for hoursMay be art

 

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Some rain possibly mixed with sleet to start beginning this afternoon with temps in the low 40's. Temps should start to warm toward morning on Thursday and highs should soar well into the 60's by afternoon. Then a cold front passes tomorrow night with temps falling to below normal both Friday and Saturday. High temps on Saturday may stay below freezing all day. We could also see some snow showers or flurries on Saturday. We should start to warm right back up again by Sunday.
Records for today: High 68 (1974) / Low 4 (1918) / Precipitation 1.82" (2003) / Snow 7.1" (2001)
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Looking over how things are progressing toward EOM and into Morch, I've gotta say that the 3/4 storm that is showing up on guidance has my interest, as the tellies are starting to support something in that "window".  AO/NAO headed solidly negative, and MJO looping from 7 to 8 in that timeframe would give this window some merit.  Just gotta believe the MJO progreassion that is being shown, and while it can change, it has changed over the last few days...and for the better i might add.  IF it verifies, it is enough of a pronounced move to MAYBE get us into the goods.

GFS MJO index forecast phase diagram

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16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Captain of the column cooling you are.   This system will go down as one that trended colder as it got closer. 

I’ll say lol, it’s pouring snow right now. Might as well get what will prob be the only snow pic of the month in. First measurable since 1/31.
 

Splotchy roads caved

57BB2D9C-C996-4441-927B-F2E340F51284.thumb.jpeg.4ae458a87397fd2fff5c47e80bacb5a3.jpeg

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

1.1” in under half an hour. Went to measure since there’s big sleet pellets mixing in now. Best rates I’ve seen all winter.

It is not accumulating here with the surface temps but nice to see in the air at least.  Snow TV.   Frozen being reported about an hour south of me south of Frederick. 

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40 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Looking over how things are progressing toward EOM and into Morch, I've gotta say that the 3/4 storm that is showing up on guidance has my interest, as the tellies are starting to support something in that "window".  AO/NAO headed solidly negative, and MJO looping from 7 to 8 in that timeframe would give this window some merit.  Just gotta believe the MJO progreassion that is being shown, and while it can change, it has changed over the last few days...and for the better i might add.  IF it verifies, it is enough of a pronounced move to MAYBE get us into the goods.

GFS MJO index forecast phase diagram

I’m not a fan of the MJO backtrack loop back into 7, which serves to delay what I think is has to come at some point. We are seeing the fruits of the stratwarm event propagating into the troposphere with the developing blocking that eventually retrogrades into a nice -NAO block and overall blocking over the top. PNA remains solidly negative on all guidance, even on the farther ranges of the GFS extended and Euro weeklies. We’ll have to contend with some degree of western troughing and continued relentless - temp anomalies biased toward the western half of the country. I think the real change for us comes after the EPO and WPO reverse to negative… which guidance has been showing happening during the first week of March. Extended guidance then keeps those teleconnections there. If/when that sets up, the combo of that and the blocking over the top via the -NAO should put us into a decidedly colder and more favorable regime for snow chances despite the -PNA. I felt a progressive MJO pulse that continued into 8-1-2 without looping would have driven that kind of change much sooner. But I think we’re going to contend with it sooner or later. The hope is it’s soon enough to salvage some decent snow opportunities without it being too offensive to the spring crowd. 

In the meantime, we’re going to continue to be vulnerable to cutters and in and out cold shots as there is ample cold available on our side of the hemisphere now. Big beneficiaries of the developing -NAO blocking the next 10-15 days without the implied Pac help (EPO/WPO) would appear to be upstate NY and a good portion of interior New England.   Deterministic ensemble guidance is indicating that some of those folks are going to go a long way towards recouping a lot of their big time snow deficits. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I’m not a fan of the MJO backtrack loop back into 7, which serves to delay what I think is has to come at some point. We are seeing the fruits of the stratwarm event propagating into the troposphere with the developing blocking that eventually retrogrades into a nice -NAO block and overall blocking over the top. PNA remains solidly negative on all guidance, even on the farther ranges of the GFS extended and Euro weeklies. We’ll have to contend with some degree of western troughing and continued relentless - temp anomalies biased toward the western half of the country. I think the real change for us comes after the EPO and WPO reverse to negative… which guidance has been showing happening during the first week of March. Extended guidance then keeps those teleconnections there. If/when that sets up, the combo of that and the blocking over the top via the -NAO should put us into a decidedly colder and more favorable regime for snow chances despite the -PNA. I felt a progressive MJO pulse that continued into 8-1-2 without looping would have driven that kind of change much sooner. But I think we’re going to contend with it sooner or later. The hope is it’s soon enough to salvage some decent snow opportunities without it being too offensive to the spring crowd. 

In the meantime, we’re going to continue to be vulnerable to cutters and in and out cold shots as there is ample cold available on our side of the hemisphere now. Big beneficiaries of the developing -NAO blocking the next 10-15 days without the implied Pac help (EPO/WPO) would appear to be upstate NY and a good portion of interior New England.   Deterministic ensemble guidance is indicating that some of those folks are going to go a long way towards recouping a lot of their big time snow deficits. 

I think early Spring is quickly exiting stage left IF LR guidance is correct in keeping blocking more effective well into March.   Whether PA sees snow is super subjective but as of today, coolish if not cold looks like it stands a much better chance after we get through this week (except when cutters spoil the cold regime, LOL). 

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