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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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The 18Z GFS has yet another BANG winter storm in early March.    One of these has to work out but I am going to go out and say I am punting early Spring as it pertains to the first 7-10 days in March.   I think spring flingers (NJ Twins in the MA) are going to have to suffer through some winter in spring. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The 18Z GFS has yet another BANG winter storm in early March.    One of these has to work out but I am going to go out and say I am punting early Spring as it pertains to the first 7-10 days in March.   I think spring flingers (NJ Twins in the MA) are going to have to suffer through some winter in spring. 

Blocking is setting up during the first week of March…

It could finally be our time? Maybe? Please?

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What an April day here at my parents place in Danville. Rain in the morning, then Gusty winds and sunshine, then all of a sudden several rounds of thunderstorms...and then finished the day with clear skies. The northeastern counties near Scranton had a layer of fresh snow from snow showers this morning and then Severe Thunderstorm warnings this afternoon!

 

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I remember many years ago when we used to get those 1-3in. or 2-4in snowfalls, but it seemed every winter we could count on getting that one snowfall of 8+. And everyone would be happy. But that don't seem the case anymore. Even Voyager and I would be happy for just that one big snowfall, the warminsta's that we are. If we would get that just one snowfall, then we can move on to spring.

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24 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I remember many years ago when we used to get those 1-3in. or 2-4in snowfalls, but it seemed every winter we could count on getting that one snowfall of 8+. And everyone would be happy. But that don't seem the case anymore. Even Voyager and I would be happy for just that one big snowfall, the warminsta's that we are. If we would get that just one snowfall, then we can move on to spring.

This CTP chart for Harrisburg seasonal snow totals since 1980 shows that we have had years in each decade that struggle with poor snow amounts.

We just had an above normal Snow season in 20-21 in a Winter that featured 2 storms that brought nearly 1 foot each to Harrisburg. We also had a few of the 2-4 type events that year as well.

This chart also shows a few examples that a bad snow year this year does not mean that next year cannot be a great snow Winter.

5EE31265-7051-41AE-9122-A170C790DE3D.png

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

This CTP chart for Harrisburg seasonal snow totals since 1980 shows that we have had years in each decade that struggle with poor snow amounts.

We just had an above normal Snow season in 20-21 in a Winter that featured 2 storms that brought nearly 1 foot each to Harrisburg. We also had a few of the 2-4 type events that year as well.

This chart also shows a few examples that a bad snow year this year does not mean that next year cannot be a great snow Winter.

5EE31265-7051-41AE-9122-A170C790DE3D.png

Also, 6 of the last 10 years at Harrisburg have featured above average snow seasons….

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30/23ºF here with precip pretty close to arriving.

I’m expecting more frozen (probably sleet) over ZR during the mixed phase of this event this morning. Short range guidance like the 3k NAM show a lot of freezing rain despite wet bulbing 925 and even 850mb temps below zero pretty far down into the central mountains.. so I don’t buy the widespread ice accrual outside of the ridge tops and the eastern Allegheny Front.  I dunno if it’ll happen here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a place like UNV sees a period of snowfall up front. 

Like I said yesterday, could be pingers mixed in with rain for a time outside of the advisory area (Sus Valley)  as 925mb temps cool below zero with precip arrival but surface temps probably stay above freezing. As it looks currently,  probably the Harrisburg area is the non-advised area in the LSV that has the best chance of that scenario. 

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16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Blizzard Warning....

 

for Los Angeles County, California. 

#Snowtown #BaseState #NewNormal lol

LOX’s discussion is pretty fun. Also mentioned in their full discussion in addition to 2-5feet of snow above 4k feet is the possibility that downtown LA goes 8 consecutive days without cracking 60ºF if the temp forecasts are correct. 

Quote
All eyes on Thursday night through Saturday morning when a slow
moving fetch of moist dynamic SSW flow moves over the area. This
system will bring a broad swath of moderate to locally heavy rain
and snow the area. This precipitation will be further enhanced by
the orographic uplift provided by the south flow and transverse
ranges. Snow levels will fluctuate quite a bit as the southerly
flow will raise levels to about 4500 ft briefly on Friday
afternoon. This could create a mixture of rain/snow at the I-5
Grapevine area before precipitation turns back to all snow Friday
evening. Rainfall rates will range from 0.50-1.0" per hour near
the main precip band on Friday bringing a threat of urban flooding
and issues near recent burn scars.

The precipitation totals for the majority of the south Santa
Barbara coast, Ventura, and Los Angeles coasts/valleys will be in
the 2-4 inch category. Low snow levels will mean that this could
be the largest amount of 24-48 hour snowfall seen in decades
(likely rivaling the 1989 storm) for our Ventura and Los Angeles
County mountains. Depending on the snow-line, rainfall in the
foothills will be from 4-6 inches, but the mountains above 4000 ft
could see upwards of 2-5 FEET of snow with isolated amounts to 7
feet at higher elevations. Snowfall of this rate and amount could
lead to damage to structures and trees with an immense threat of
avalanches, especially in the eastern San Gabriel Mountains by
Saturday.

While the main precip band will exit the area Saturday morning and
the steady rain will stop. But then the upper low will move
directly over the area. 500 mb temps are near -35 degrees C which
will make for a very unstable atmosphere. The cold, unstable air
will be conducive to development of heavy showers, lightning, and
small hail or graupel. Cyclonic spin would allow for waterspout
activity over the ocean with brief small tornadoes near the coast.
Precipitation coverage would not be as widespread, but most areas
are likely to see additional showers through the day Saturday and
snow levels will remain below 3000 ft.

 

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9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

#Snowtown #BaseState #NewNormal lol

LOX’s discussion is pretty fun. Also mentioned in their full discussion in addition to 2-5feet of snow above 4k feet is the possibility that downtown LA goes 8 consecutive days without cracking 60ºF if the temp forecasts are correct. 

 

#WeWereVoyager'ed

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