Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 12Z GFS is the shit as far as snow. Still has a series of cold/near normal snaps over the next 2 weeks but then cutters flush it out. It goes back and forth like that the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: No one posted the 12z GFS...and for good reason. It's pretty much void of any wintry weather through 3/4. There are several cutters to look forward to, however. Opps, I just posted similar...with some details about the alternating warm back to cold/normal look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Of note is this shocker CMC panel which also has the ebb and flow from cold to warm the next two weeks...one very warm ebb. It has never hit 80 at MDT in Feb (recorded history.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: We lost the biggest snow hound in the world yesterday - Bastardi essentially said good night and a fond farewell to winter, and he was basing that on the MJO regressing back into 6 in early March. It's really bad when we lose JB. the persistence of the WAR is undoubtedly killing off anything that tries to get set up/established. If the MJO gets outta favorable 8/1/2 as quickly as it got in, well that'd put a notable sized fork in the window we were looking at for late feb/early march. Mag posted the mjo plot earlier, and you can see that it is low amplititude 8 anyway, and as I think he suggested (and a couple of us have earlier this winter), you gotta have something more notable to offset the persistant ridging in the AO/NAO space, and while the NAO looks to get better, not sure if it can/will overcome. As I suggested last week, I'm just sittin back and playin watch n see, but as of now, I'm still a little more than cautious as I'm not feeling it yet. Hoping the SSW that is currently downwelling, can cause enough of a wholesale regime change to offset what we've been seeing all "winter". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 18 minutes ago, pasnownut said: the persistence of the WAR is undoubtedly killing off anything that tries to get set up/established. If the MJO gets outta favorable 8/1/2 as quickly as it got in, well that'd put a notable sized fork in the window we were looking at for late feb/early march. Mag posted the mjo plot earlier, and you can see that it is low amplititude 8 anyway, and as I think he suggested (and a couple of us have earlier this winter), you gotta have something more notable to offset the persistant ridging in the AO/NAO space, and while the NAO looks to get better, not sure if it can/will overcome. As I suggested last week, I'm just sittin back and playin watch n see, but as of now, I'm still a little more than cautious as I'm not feeling it yet. Hoping the SSW that is currently downwelling, can cause enough of a wholesale regime change to offset what we've been seeing all "winter". Unfortunately...delayed might soon become denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Of note is this shocker CMC panel which also has the ebb and flow from cold to warm the next two weeks...one very warm ebb. It has never hit 80 at MDT in Feb (recorded history.) MU officially hit 80 on 2/21/2018. One month later...17" of snow fell. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU officially hit 80 on 2/21/2018. One month later...17" of snow fell. That matches the day MDT's high of 79 for Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Unfortunately...delayed might soon become denied. theme of the winter. Even though Nina has started to fade (currently aoa -.8), early thoughts of us trending twds neutral by now (or by early spring) have not materialized, and me thinks that base state is going to be the death of whatever chances we may have had for backend action for winter). i dont know enough about Enso, but i know enough to know the regime really isnt changing much and makes me nervous about anything else being able to fight it before we close the books, as it truely has had the hot hand for us here in the East. Dunno. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 52 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z GFS is the shit as far as snow. Still has a series of cold/near normal snaps over the next 2 weeks but then cutters flush it out. It goes back and forth like that the rest of the month. That's been the pattern we can't escape. With the precip comes the warmth, and then brief bouts of cold but not arctic air. Everything of note scooting up to our west. Rinse and repeat. Sooooo frustrating. Raining at a pretty good clip here at the moment. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 They ain't fooling me. Biden probably shot it down... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 It’s really coming down out there. And color me shocked the snow modeled disappeared. Shocked! I say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Voyager said: They ain't fooling me. Biden probably shot it down... Either that or Trump put up a wall to keep the radar out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Either that or Trump put up a wall to keep the radar out. Haha...maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 49 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU officially hit 80 on 2/21/2018. One month later...17" of snow fell. EC is low 60's during this same time period. 15-20 degree difference vs. the CMC and GFS. It does punch up to near 70 that evening though. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Parking lot lights are on here at work - it is REALLY dark all of the sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 17 minutes ago, Voyager said: They ain't fooling me. Biden probably shot it down... Tucson - I saw they had snow yesterday morning. Isn't Tucson like really far south in AZ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 The Euro leaves us with something to watch as light snow spreads into the LSV (temps are marginal) NEXT Saturday leaving this complicated map at the end of its run. Temps are quite cold a few days before this period. Can that wave in the S/W work with the cold air dome pressing down a day or two later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Tucson - I saw they had snow yesterday morning. Isn't Tucson like really far south in AZ? Yes it is, but it's got a little elevation to it (2,398 ft) so in a cold storm where the snow levels are low, they can and do get some snow from time to time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Has crept down to 48 here with light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Cue Allen Jackson's "Remember When": 20 years ago today, one of the great snowstorms of all time.. known as the President’s Day Storm of 2003 or PDII.. was bringing blizzard conditions to the mid-Atlantic States. Ranked #6 on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS), the system dumped 20-30” across southern PA! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Cue Allen Jackson's "Remember When": 20 years ago today, one of the great snowstorms of all time.. known as the President’s Day Storm of 2003 or PDII.. was bringing blizzard conditions to the mid-Atlantic States. Ranked #6 on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS), the system dumped 20-30” across southern PA! Is that red dot in Southern PA Cashtown? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Share Posted February 16, 2023 Lol, Happy hour GFS saves us with a historic storm to end the month & bring in March like a Lion! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Share Posted February 16, 2023 Let’s start a collection for this Happy hour storm to happen…we need this, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16, 2023 Author Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Cue Allen Jackson's "Remember When": 20 years ago today, one of the great snowstorms of all time.. known as the President’s Day Storm of 2003 or PDII.. was bringing blizzard conditions to the mid-Atlantic States. Ranked #6 on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS), the system dumped 20-30” across southern PA! I absolutely loved every second of this storm. It was a very long duration. The forecasts a couple of days before had the heaviest snow towards the MD line, but as the storm approached the day before, forecasts began to advertise 1 foot likely with more possible. Then as the storm got underway, my favorite forecast of “Winter Storm Warning for 1 to 2 feet of snow” was issued. The temperatures were in the single digits as the storm got underway Sunday am as strong High pressed down from Quebec. I remember the long “arm” of the precip on the radar stretching from the MD line well back into the Central states. The precip slowly inched north through CTP & the rates picked as low crawled eastward. By Sunday night, there was about 10 inches of snow on the ground. The storm reached the Mid Atlantic coast & intensified as it moved north. The snow intensity & flake size increased. By Monday morning it was still snowing moderately to heavy. It finally wrapped around Harrisburg by early afternoon with around 2 feet on snow on the ground. Then on Tuesday, the upper low swung through & delivered light snow bringing another 1 or 2 inches of snow. Epic storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 question wasnt todays high in mdt suppose to be 65ish? temp got to 55 early in the day then went down to 51 when the rain moved in. tonights low is 50 for what I saw and its all rdy 51. was the forecast changed a few days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, Ruin said: question wasnt todays high in mdt suppose to be 65ish? temp got to 55 early in the day then went down to 51 when the rain moved in. tonights low is 50 for what I saw and its all rdy 51. was the forecast changed a few days ago? MDT's high was 58 so far today....between midnight and 1AM. Sometimes they adjust it up so could be 59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 The Happy hour GFS was Really happy. It has another snowstorm to end the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Happy hour GFS was Really happy. It has another snowstorm to end the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 The latest Euro weeklies & extended GEFS are very snowy for CTP & the whole Northeast. Time will tell if we can salvage a strong 4th quarter Winter ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Let’s start a collection for this Happy hour storm to happen…we need this, lol! The reason the happy hour models pump out good snow storms is because they're drunk. Once they sober up, they go back to a soaking, rainy, cutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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