Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

LOL - after my Roundtop comments, I check their website and find out they're closed today to "preserve the snowpack for the holiday weekend." 

That is probably exactly what George Washington and Abe Lincoln had in mind when thinking about the country's future!  Ski Roundtop must be open on their weekend. 

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, Voyager said:

Well, it's looking a little better for you guys in the 8-14 day panel, but for me, it's just more of the same...ugh

 

The significant cold anomalies in the SW US have been remarkably persistent most of the winter (much like the SE ridge on this side), specifically the last 30 days but on a month by month basis November averaged well below average as well. The only fairly normal month temp wise in your neck of the woods was December. 

Unfortunately the really negative PNA that has been firmly established as of late looks to continue unabated and that’s going to weigh heavily towards discharge of Canadian cold centering towards the western half of the CONUS regardless of whether we push some cold into C-PA eventually. 

Revisiting my post from last Friday:

On 2/10/2023 at 9:37 PM, MAG5035 said:

 

It’ll be interesting to see what the MJO does. Most guidance gets it rapidly to Phase 8 as soon as the middle to latter part of next week. I think what happens after will be important, as maintaining convection in the 8-1-2 realm would probably go a long way to driving the wholesale change in the pattern at the mid latitudes we need to go on an actual wintry run. The MJO was persistently forecast to hit those phases in early to mid January but never actually emerged into any phase til it got to 3 late month. 

Theres also the stratosphere, as all guidance has been predicting significant warming and at least some stretching/displacement of the stratospheric PV and this starts occurring in the next week or so. The GFS/GEFS appears go as far as to try to split it. Either way, it’s significant enough that it will likely have an impact on the pattern down the road the next few weeks and a recent example of this is 2018. If it played out that way I think we’d be seeing snow opportunities well before Mar 23.

So nearly a week later now, MJO as of the 1x per day update this morning incorporating 0z data is on the border of Phase 6/7. A tad slower but it still moved and is moving rapidly through these warm phases. All the guidance does get it into 8 now in the next few days. Key thing they are showing now, is a curl back instead of further advancement into 1-2. Here’s GFS as an example:

Now this is better than yesterday’s version of this forecast, as the GFS looped it right back into the P5/6 region by the beginning of March. That scenario would figure to be quite a blow to setting up any kind of wintry run during the first half of the month where you can still put together a cold pattern that can keep snow on the ground in our region. I’m still not really enthusiastic about curving back into 7 either, as the pattern for that phase still looks an awful lot like what the models have generally been suggesting… which in shorthand is available cold weighed to the west but trying to press the SE ridge… setting a storm boundary that we may or probably won’t be on the right side of. As I said in the quoted post from last week, I think we need to carry that pulse of tropical forcing at least modestly into the colder phases 1-2 as I believe that is needed to force a big shuffle of the status quo. 

In the meantime, here’s what we’re faced with.

This is no bueno. This index has been a primary driver in this SE ridge and cold western US regime and will continue to give us trouble. I feel like the PNA gets overlooked for the EPO sometimes when talking eastern cold. That kind of magnitude -PNA is a very dominant signal to overcome with a +NAO/AO. I don’t even think the +NAO/AO would be a problem because there’s finally a lot of really cold air progged to build and be available in Canada that can press. The period the models have been occasionally showing some mixed/frozen events for us coincide with a forecast dip negative in the EPO. The cold will try to press but that SE ridge induced by the super negative PNA western trough is going to make it hard. 

The other factor is the stratwarm, which is definitely a thing now and occurring currently as a full blown SSW. I’ve pretty much viewed the MJO forcing as our primary factor in getting potential winter weather back sooner, perhaps before the month is out while the stratwarm was more of a long game type thing that, in lieu of the MJO not working out in the interim.. probably makes the back half of March into April cold anyways when we’re pretty much over it. The stratosphere thing is definitely interesting. If you brave the terminology and discussion in Dr. Cohen’s weekly posting, he considers this event possibly a unique example as models continue to weaken/even potentially split the strat PV after the SSW. That type of stuff would suggest eventual blocking in the NAO realm. Guess we’ll see, I’m admittedly not super knowledgeable and still learning when it comes to the stratosphere stuff. 

 

[Bubbler86]

A bit over halfway through the month and MDT is currently 6.4 degrees AN and stands tied for the #7 warmest Feb in MDT recorded history if the month ended today.  With  several periods of colder weather progged to be on the way I am not sure MDT has a shot to challenge for the record or even stay in the top 10.  Of note from the top 10 as of today, 7 have occurred since 1990 with 4 of the 10 in the last 6 years! 1932, 1990 and 1998 also stand out when looking at Jan and Feb. 

 

 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A bit over halfway through the month and MDT is currently 6.4 degrees AN and stands at the #7 warmest Feb in MDT recorded history if the month ended today.  With  several periods of colder weather progged to be on the way I am not sure MDT has a shot to challenge for the record.  Of note from the top 10, 7 have occurred since 1990 with 4 of the 10 in the last 6 years! 

 

 

 

Yep.  Yesterday was 23 AN and by itself was enough to raise the month-to-date avg. by 1.3 degrees.  I definitely think we can get around that 40 degree mark prior to any end of month cold that may or may not build.  Today will be another big + departure, tomorrow's overnight high will lead to another solid + departure, saturday near normal, and then next week I see a string of like 5-10 AN type days.  Just no let up.  I see nothing overly meaningful in the way of tracking either.  Hard to overstate how high my level of disappointment is for this winter.  But I fully expect a miserable March/April when we least want it haha. 

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yep.  Yesterday was 23 AN and by itself was enough to raise the month-to-date avg. by 1.3 degrees.  I definitely think we can get around that 40 degree mark prior to any end of month cold that may or may not build.  Today will be another big + departure, tomorrow's overnight high will lead to another solid + departure, saturday near normal, and then next week I see a string of like 5-10 AN type days.  Just no let up.  I see nothing overly meaningful in the way of tracking either.  Hard to overstate how high my level of disappointment is for this winter.  But I fully expect a miserable March/April when we least want it haha. 

I am hoping that the average is close to 38ish-39ish when we get to next weekend.    Models have another quick shot of near or slightly above normal weather mid-week next week.   A week from today the Euro keeps MDT below 40 all day with mixed precip just north of MDT. 

[ChescoWx]

Our mild weather continues today into tomorrow morning until a sharp cold front moves across the area which will drop temps during the day tomorrow down into the 20's by late tomorrow night into Saturday morning. We will also see some much needed rain as we have only seen 0.09" of rain on just 2 days this month. We are almost 2" below normal this month. I have heard reports that Marsh Creek Lake is as low as folks have seen it in a long time. The combined lack of snow and rain is taking it's toll. The good news is we could see between 0.50" and 0.75" across Chester County between showers today and then more rain associated with the cold front tomorrow morning.

Records for today: High 72 degrees (1954) / Low 2.8 below zero (2015) / 14.7" (2003) as part of the PD2 Blizzard of 2003 when we received 21.3" of snow - this was the 5th largest February snowstorm in Chester County history. Happy Pitchers and Catchers reporting Day for those who celebrate!!!

[Itstrainingtime]

17 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yep.  Yesterday was 23 AN and by itself was enough to raise the month-to-date avg. by 1.3 degrees.  I definitely think we can get around that 40 degree mark prior to any end of month cold that may or may not build.  Today will be another big + departure, tomorrow's overnight high will lead to another solid + departure, saturday near normal, and then next week I see a string of like 5-10 AN type days.  Just no let up.  I see nothing overly meaningful in the way of tracking either.  Hard to overstate how high my level of disappointment is for this winter.  But I fully expect a miserable March/April when we least want it haha. 

Keep bringing those numbers my friend...

[Itstrainingtime]

46 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Now this is better than yesterday’s version of this forecast, as the GFS looped it right back into the P5/6 region by the beginning of March. That scenario would figure to be quite a blow to setting up any kind of wintry run during the first half of the month where you can still put together a cold pattern that can keep snow on the ground in our region.

We lost the biggest snow hound in the world yesterday - Bastardi essentially said good night and a fond farewell to winter, and he was basing that on the MJO regressing back into 6 in early March. 

 

It's really bad when we lose JB. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Keep bringing those numbers my friend...

Better yet, I'm thinking tomorrow morning I may actually be able to get out that MU study I've been promising since the Reagan years ha.

[Superstorm]

19 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yep.  Yesterday was 23 AN and by itself was enough to raise the month-to-date avg. by 1.3 degrees.  I definitely think we can get around that 40 degree mark prior to any end of month cold that may or may not build.  Today will be another big + departure, tomorrow's overnight high will lead to another solid + departure, saturday near normal, and then next week I see a string of like 5-10 AN type days.  Just no let up.  I see nothing overly meaningful in the way of tracking either.  Hard to overstate how high my level of disappointment is for this winter.  But I fully expect a miserable March/April when we least want it haha. 

March through May is going to suck.  Then probably a brutally hot June through September.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

We lost the biggest snow hound in the world yesterday - Bastardi essentially said good night and a fond farewell to winter, and he was basing that on the MJO regressing back into 6 in early March. 

 

It's really bad when we lose JB. 

What happened to all those analogs and erroneous misunderstandings/over valuing of long range MJO forecasting that JB gave us earlier this winter?   

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

Its my fault that winter is bad. I never got my snow blower out. its still tucked away in the garden shed. 

Don't blame yourself for this mess. It's my fault for moving out west.

Wherever I am, there shall the cold be, too...lol

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

March through May is going to suck.  Then probably a brutally hot June through September.

So true. I've been thinking the same thing. At least I'll be gone for most of May. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

What happened to all those analogs and erroneous misunderstandings/over valuing of long range MJO forecasting that JB gave us earlier this winter?   

Yeah, I mean...umm...you'd have to ask him. LOL

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Our mild weather continues today into tomorrow morning until a sharp cold front moves across the area which will drop temps during the day tomorrow down into the 20's by late tomorrow night into Saturday morning. We will also see some much needed rain as we have only seen 0.09" of rain on just 2 days this month. We are almost 2" below normal this month. I have heard reports that Marsh Creek Lake is as low as folks have seen it in a long time. The combined lack of snow and rain is taking it's toll. The good news is we could see between 0.50" and 0.75" across Chester County between showers today and then more rain associated with the cold front tomorrow morning.

Records for today: High 72 degrees (1954) / Low 2.8 below zero (2015) / 14.7" (2003) as part of the PD2 Blizzard of 2003 when we received 21.3" of snow - this was the 5th largest February snowstorm in Chester County history. Happy Pitchers and Catchers reporting Day for those who celebrate!!!

 

USGS is monitoring our area for potential degradation in drought "rankings" going into Spring.  A small area of Southern  PA is also now back into D0 drought status.   With that being said we are currently rated better over all than 1 year ago at this time. 

[TheDreamTraveler]

15 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

March through May is going to suck.  Then probably a brutally hot June through September.

Yep seems typical that that'll happen again. We'll get super cold in late April and May and then just barge straight into a hot summer.

[Bubbler86]

The NWS just took a dump on us.

 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The NWS just took a dump on us.

 

 

 

 

That illustrates just how bad it's been out in the Laurels...good grief. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

That illustrates just how bad it's been out in the Laurels...good grief. 

Despite that large Yellow area, the small area of blue in N Central PA kept the state out of the top 10 somehow. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Another "casualty" of the warm weather...my grass has really greened up and is growing. Am I going to be mowing before February is out? 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Another "casualty" of the warm weather...my grass has really greened up and is growing. Am I going to be mowing before February is out? 

Same here.   I wonder how much the cold nights coming will shock it back. 

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

My attempt at the top 5 worst purchases for winter 22/23 SO FAR.  Not that I purchased, just in general.   Not necessarily in order. 

 

1-Snow Blower.

2-A prepaid contract for plowing your driveway.

3-A season long Ski Pass.

4-A contract for balanced heating charges (oil/gas/propane/electricity) based on 30-year norms.  My overall heating bill is ~ 1/2 of what I was fearing.  Lowest since I moved back in 2018 despite electricity and oil being more expensive.  If one bought into one of those plans this year, they have lost hundreds if not over a thousand. 

5-A large bag of ice melt/salt.  

 

 

 

 

This will be the 2nd year in a row municipalities haven't had to use a plow. That's a big savings for them - but absolutely brutal to landscape companies. 

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Another "casualty" of the warm weather...my grass has really greened up and is growing. Am I going to be mowing before February is out? 

Yes. I have weeds coming through. Trees are budding. 

[anotherman]

[sauss06]

51 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Another "casualty" of the warm weather...my grass has really greened up and is growing. Am I going to be mowing before February is out? 

Sunday

[Bubbler86]

Nooners, rainy and 52. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

Sunday

Very, very possible. 

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nooners, rainy and 52. 

Rain has just arrived here, 60 degrees. Was 62 but dropped with the onset of the drops.

[Itstrainingtime]

No one posted the 12z GFS...and for good reason. It's pretty much void of any wintry weather through 3/4. There are several cutters to look forward to, however. 

[Itstrainingtime]

MU Weather Center

 

Showers and some embedded brief, heavier downpours are overspreading the region, and the air is actually unstable enough to support a few lightning strikes to the south/west of Frederick, MD. Is it May or February!?