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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Meanwhile...here in beautiful Rehoboth Beach, DE it's currently mostly sunny, a bit brisk but a mild 63. Truly feels like a late spring morning and seems weird not to see the boardwalk shops lined up with vacationers eating breakfast. 

Free Bike borrow to ride the park. 

https://destateparks.com/Beaches/CapeHenlopen

 

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The 'ol midnight high is really gonna do a number on us today.  For the month, we're already up to 2.5 AN through yesterday.  It will be interesting to see where we're at come the end of next week.  Outside of the southern Apps event this weekend, none of the global models show a lick of snow through the duration of their runs for the entirety of the MA.  This was a winter for the west, simple as that.  Onward.

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36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Meanwhile...here in beautiful Rehoboth Beach, DE it's currently mostly sunny, a bit brisk but a mild 63. Truly feels like a late spring morning and seems weird not to see the boardwalk shops lined up with vacationers eating breakfast. 

Hey Nannook, I will throw $20 in if you send pics of you swimming (must be chest deep and in water for 3 min.....:)

 

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21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am at the rest stop near the the Penn national casino and I would guess sustained here is 30ish.  

It hadn't been too bad until then, gusts into the low 30s but sustained probably around 20. That was a weird little push, back down to what we've had since overnight now. Tomorrow doesn't look noticeably less windy. 

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6 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The 'ol midnight high is really gonna do a number on us today.  For the month, we're already up to 2.5 AN through yesterday.  It will be interesting to see where we're at come the end of next week.  Outside of the southern Apps event this weekend, none of the global models show a lick of snow through the duration of their runs for the entirety of the MA.  This was a winter for the west, simple as that.  Onward.

It’s likely to be quite a + departure by the end of next week. The system following the weekend one we had been watching slated to cut next week seems poised to drive an even more prolific warm push out ahead of it, probably centering on Wed/Thurs. Probably a record or near record challenging warm shot for us. 1 day anomalies over the northeast are nuts with ensemble means of the Euro and GEFS showing +20-30ºF over our area and the rest of the northeast. 

Other aspect is likely a potential severe weather outbreak at least into the Deep South some of the Ohio Valley. 12z Euro manages to drive up non negligible SBCAPE’s of a couple hundred J/kg all the way up into Ontario. Not at all a common thing to be seen at our latitude and higher in mid February. Def has the look of having some thunder with the frontal passage either way. 

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8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It’s likely to be quite a + departure by the end of next week. The system following the weekend one we had been watching slated to cut next week seems poised to drive an even more prolific warm push out ahead of it, probably centering on Wed/Thurs. Probably a record or near record challenging warm shot for us. 1 day anomalies over the northeast are nuts with ensemble means of the Euro and GEFS showing +20-30ºF over our area and the rest of the northeast. 

Other aspect is likely a potential severe weather outbreak at least into the Deep South some of the Ohio Valley. 12z Euro manages to drive up non negligible SBCAPE’s of a couple hundred J/kg all the way up into Ontario. Not at all a common thing to be seen at our latitude and higher in mid February. Def has the look of having some thunder with the frontal passage either way. 

Yeah that's why I was saying about taking stock after next week, figured we'd be in better position to evaluate if we can make a run at any monthly records again.  The only two February's to ever average over 40 degrees at MDT were in 2017 and 1998, with 1976 and 1954 not far behind.  Hey, at least there has been something to track this winter, as sad as it may be haha.  Hard to believe it was just 2015 when we had by far our coldest February on record.  Good observation on the potential northern extent of the severe next week.

Have a great weekend everyone. Three day weekend has arrived whew.  I'm about to go make a big batch of orange crushes and margaritas for some friends coming over tonight.  Cheers!

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8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah that's why I was saying about taking stock after next week, figured we'd be in better position to evaluate if we can make a run at any monthly records again.  The only two February's to ever average over 40 degrees at MDT were in 2017 and 1998, with 1976 and 1954 not far behind.  Hey, at least there has been something to track this winter, as sad as it may be haha.  Hard to believe it was just 2015 when we had by far our coldest February on record.  Good observation on the potential northern extent of the severe next week.

Have a great weekend everyone. Three day weekend has arrived whew.  I'm about to go make a big batch of orange crushes and margaritas for some friends coming over tonight.  Cheers!

Gee thanks for the invite ya big jerk! 

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2 hours ago, paweather said:

Might get cold by the end of the GFS run haven't looked at the EURO yet. 

GEPS and GEFS are not droolworthy at all.  Hoping they come around as things adjust again, but WAR really shows little sign of a wholesale shift from what we've seen so far this "winter", so I'm gonna be a big skeptic until proven otherwise.  OTOH, one good thing that is showing is that Canada looks to have cold building, but without AO/NAO, it may stay too far north for us.  Just something to watch.

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26 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah that's why I was saying about taking stock after next week, figured we'd be in better position to evaluate if we can make a run at any monthly records again.  The only two February's to ever average over 40 degrees at MDT were in 2017 and 1998, with 1976 and 1954 not far behind.  Hey, at least there has been something to track this winter, as sad as it may be haha.  Hard to believe it was just 2015 when we had by far our coldest February on record.  Good observation on the potential northern extent of the severe next week.

Have a great weekend everyone. Three day weekend has arrived whew.  I'm about to go make a big batch of orange crushes and margaritas for some friends coming over tonight.  Cheers!

Have a great weekend!!  Sounds like a good time coming.  It's about HH for me as well.

 

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47 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It’s likely to be quite a + departure by the end of next week. The system following the weekend one we had been watching slated to cut next week seems poised to drive an even more prolific warm push out ahead of it, probably centering on Wed/Thurs. Probably a record or near record challenging warm shot for us. 1 day anomalies over the northeast are nuts with ensemble means of the Euro and GEFS showing +20-30ºF over our area and the rest of the northeast. 

Other aspect is likely a potential severe weather outbreak at least into the Deep South some of the Ohio Valley. 12z Euro manages to drive up non negligible SBCAPE’s of a couple hundred J/kg all the way up into Ontario. Not at all a common thing to be seen at our latitude and higher in mid February. Def has the look of having some thunder with the frontal passage either way. 

Meanwhile, it might snow in Phoenix AZ... :(

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33 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah that's why I was saying about taking stock after next week, figured we'd be in better position to evaluate if we can make a run at any monthly records again.  The only two February's to ever average over 40 degrees at MDT were in 2017 and 1998, with 1976 and 1954 not far behind.  Hey, at least there has been something to track this winter, as sad as it may be haha.  Hard to believe it was just 2015 when we had by far our coldest February on record.  Good observation on the potential northern extent of the severe next week.

Have a great weekend everyone. Three day weekend has arrived whew.  I'm about to go make a big batch of orange crushes and margaritas for some friends coming over tonight.  Cheers!

15% probability has already been issued for day 6 and 7 by the spc.

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16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

GEPS and GEFS are not droolworthy at all.  Hoping they come around as things adjust again, but WAR really shows little sign of a wholesale shift from what we've seen so far this "winter", so I'm gonna be a big skeptic until proven otherwise.  OTOH, one good thing that is showing is that Canada looks to have cold building, but without AO/NAO, it may stay too far north for us.  Just something to watch.

Yeah I think everything signs to no more snow this winter. Just nuts!!! HH will turn me around. :D

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ATP it looks like we will be under the gun for sever weather late 16th and early the 17th with a favorable kinematic environment  foretasted to be not to far west of cpa.  The most volatile thermodynamics stay way south of the high kinematic values without much interaction atp . I'm rooting for an overlap, and hell on earth in cpa. Its been way to boring for this weather hound the last few months .  Maybe I can get some mood shingles flying around and accumulating in my backyard .

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The SE ridge doesn’t appear to weaken at all in weeklies through mid March. With that in place, winter remains dead. 

That said probably a significant blizzard next Wednesday in a good chunk of Iowa, Kansas and Colorado. 
 

Not sold on us getting severe storms Thursday but tons of time to get those cape values NE.  

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@canderson

The GFS extended maintained some SE ridging (although a good bit colder overall in the east) but the latest run of the Euro weeklies that ran a couple nights ago definitely did not beyond week 2.

It had the entire lower 48 cold with no SE ridging starting from about the end of week 2 the whole way through the end at D46. 

Week 3 (7 day anomalies)

image.thumb.png.e3cf0b8279aab088244bcfe98369902d.png

image.thumb.png.eb178ccce44326753df146037f5dad5f.png

 

Week 4

image.thumb.png.4939f5af620efd7c6e49fdd3f7b0281b.pngimage.thumb.png.4939f5af620efd7c6e49fdd3f7b0281b.png

image.thumb.png.2dbf01737f3eb7f65cc918dfb8585321.png

It’ll be interesting to see what the MJO does. Most guidance gets it rapidly to Phase 8 as soon as the middle to latter part of next week. I think what happens after will be important, as maintaining convection in the 8-1-2 realm would probably go a long way to driving the wholesale change in the pattern at the mid latitudes we need to go on an actual wintry run. The MJO was persistently forecast to hit those phases in early to mid January but never actually emerged into any phase til it got to 3 late month. 

Theres also the stratosphere, as all guidance has been predicting significant warming and at least some stretching/displacement of the stratospheric PV and this starts occurring in the next week or so. The GFS/GEFS appears go as far as to try to split it. Either way, it’s significant enough that it will likely have an impact on the pattern down the road the next few weeks and a recent example of this is 2018. If it played out that way I think we’d be seeing snow opportunities well before Mar 23.

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