MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 So I hear this winter sucks lol. I’ve been playing with the NOWData lately using MDT doing some previous year comparisons of how we’re doing this winter to date (thru 2/7). They have measured 5.9” so far this season, average to date is 17.2”. Winters in the last 30 or so that are comparable (within a couple inches) or worse. 2019/2020 (5.1”), 2016/2017 (1.9”), 2007-2008 (5.3”), 2006-2007 (2.6”), 1994-1995 (6.6”), 1991-1992 (1.7”), 1988-1989 (6.9”). Several others that were bad overall winters were below average in 9-12ish range. That leaves my favorite find of this deep dive… 1992-1993, which had 6” to date. Most of that came from the Dec 92 nor’easter that turned to rain in the Sus Valley, so some of the LSV was prob in worse shape than that. I always knew that 1992-1993 was a winter heavily weighed on the two big hitters in C-PA (the Dec 10-12, 1992 nor’easter and March 93 Blizzard) but I never realized how much that winter sucked in between for a whole two months until about mid-Feb with above average temps and little snow. UNV, hit hard with 18” from the Dec storm had only 4” from when that ended Dec 12th to Feb 12 with no single snowfall greater than an inch or so. Post Feb 12th they had over 70” (28” from the 93 storm) to total about 93”. MDT ended up with over 47” for the season. That’s one heck of a turnaround. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 10 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Great post from pro Met. @wdrag in the NYC forum that I think could apply to us in Central PA. “fwiw... if the ULL tracks east, probably no go for us n of I80 but if the ULL tracks 1 or 2 degs further N, then I think the I84 corridor has a good chance of deformation zone snow (4") in n-nw edge of 7H LOW where FGEN-convergence occurs. I'll be watching trends in the modeled 7H-5H lows the next several days. In the meantime, 12z op model heights at 500MB are generally 30-60M higher than the 12z EC op. That makes a significant difference in ptype nw edge. Thermal profile are marginal but I'm pretty sure if models reverse the se trend in today's models, that we'll see a pretty decent amount of snow in the Pocs-I84 corridor. This still has a chance to edge a little further north than recently modeled. It's not an overwhelming amount of cooling in the column that is needed, in my opinion. It's latitude of the 7H-5H low that I think is important fgen significant snow N of I80.” I don't want to push this NW of the I84 corridor, not yet anyway. Is worthy of monitoring. If nothing happens because it goes out to sea south of I80, then so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Cloudy and a mild 46 this AM. Models keep pushing the weekend event back which is not ideal as the ULL will be too far south and could miss out on precip altogether. The Euro op has joined the other crew in showing a scenario similar to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Pootie Tang and winter 22-23, top two lamest things I have ever had to go through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 HRRR and RGEM are very bold in bringing mid-60s to parts of the area later today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Newman said: HRRR and RGEM are very bold in bringing mid-60s to parts of the area later today It is already 54 here. After the torch started off timidly Mon and Tue, it is kicking in full gear now. I would expect a 70 reading or two with those panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is already 54 here. After the torch started off timidly Mon and Tue, it is kicking in full gear now. I would expect a 70 reading or two with those panels. Wow only 38 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 10 hours ago, MAG5035 said: So I hear this winter sucks lol. I’ve been playing with the NOWData lately using MDT doing some previous year comparisons of how we’re doing this winter to date (thru 2/7). They have measured 5.9” so far this season, average to date is 17.2”. Winters in the last 30 or so that are comparable (within a couple inches) or worse. 2019/2020 (5.1”), 2016/2017 (1.9”), 2007-2008 (5.3”), 2006-2007 (2.6”), 1994-1995 (6.6”), 1991-1992 (1.7”), 1988-1989 (6.9”). Several others that were bad overall winters were below average in 9-12ish range. That leaves my favorite find of this deep dive… 1992-1993, which had 6” to date. Most of that came from the Dec 92 nor’easter that turned to rain in the Sus Valley, so some of the LSV was prob in worse shape than that. I always knew that 1992-1993 was a winter heavily weighed on the two big hitters in C-PA (the Dec 10-12, 1992 nor’easter and March 93 Blizzard) but I never realized how much that winter sucked in between for a whole two months until about mid-Feb with above average temps and little snow. UNV, hit hard with 18” from the Dec storm had only 4” from when that ended Dec 12th to Feb 12 with no single snowfall greater than an inch or so. Post Feb 12th they had over 70” (28” from the 93 storm) to total about 93”. MDT ended up with over 47” for the season. That’s one heck of a turnaround. I was just telling a co-worker about '93 yesterday. How it really sucked and then BAM. Because of that year, i ALWAYS hold out hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Wow only 38 here. Yea, it is that old SW Wind and no Valley to protect us West facing South Mountain dwellers issue. It fires right up the mountain chain in the direction of that arrow. But it is a precursor to the LSV as there is not much damming (damn it!) to save you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Here is MU if Millersville hits 70 today/tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just reached 40 in Maytown under overcast skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Here is MU if Millersville hits 70 today/tonight. LOL! MU isn't calling for temps near 70 until next week - last I saw he was calling for 58 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 11 hours ago, MAG5035 said: I dunno if I’d call progressive directly the problem here. Certainly the northern branch is progressive but this potential event has trended away from a tailing wave running along a frontal boundary into a closed off upper low cut off from that flow. The former scenario was one that required perfect timing and the latter scenario (what guidance has been showing as of late) is one that needs a way to get some latitude. Gonna show 3 panels from the new 18z Euro ensemble mean. Initially, there’s a shortwave in the northern branch that passes Friday Night/Sat ahead of the closed low in the south and a positively tilted trough orientation. 60hr At 84 hours, the closed low is cut off from the northern branch but progressing along with the upstream shortwave diving into California pressing. The key to getting this up high enough to catch C-PA in my opinion is getting any kind of buckling upstream in the northern branch to draw the low up even just a tad. The Euro/EPS indicate a bit of digging with a NS shortwave in the north central at 102, where the GFS/GEFS doesn’t have much. Additionally, the GFS/GEFS is a bit faster progressing the closed low. The Euro being sharper with this feature is likely a big reason why it’s the most ambitious with affecting PA. So in terms of temps…. yea overall temp pattern is warm. With that progressive northern branch jet that high in latitude thanks to a currently +AO/NAO and +EPO, it really shouldn’t be much of a mystery why. What makes this a potential snow oasis in a sea of Pacific modified air is the closed upper low itself is fairly deep and would have a cold pool aloft sufficient for a snow column with good precip rates and probably some elevation as well. If the system comes north enough, this would likely be just an enough to be a snow event in the central counties, and might be more of an elevational deal in the Sus Valley with marginal low level/surface temps. That’s a big if, because I’m still not sure we can get much precip above the mason-Dixon. Want to see more model support for that obviously, but the latest Euro and ensembles were certainly at least mildly interesting. If it doesn’t get us it’s probably going to give WV, interior VA and perhaps even the higher western Carolinas a snow event, which I guess would be hilarious if one were into schadenfreude kind of humor. I guess Elliot technically still would be on track with his 70 is more likely than snow call lol. Although, he did acknowledge this event in a post just a bit ago at 8pm. Surprised no one brought that up. 11 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Who is on the MU watch this evening? Mag showed that person up! My team (the people in this thread) left me down last night. I was at the gym and missed all of the MU talk. I did see his lengthy discussion and the short and sweet recap was this - if we actually do get any precip from the ULL, it's gonna rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: LOL! MU isn't calling for temps near 70 until next week - last I saw he was calling for 58 today. I was not following that closely on his calls but saw the 70 > Snow chance comments. So, if Millersville hits 70 today, he will not be able to take credit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was not following that closely on his calls but saw the 70 > Snow chance comments. So, if Millersville hits 70 today, he will not be able to take credit? 70 today...no credit. He was pretty clear that the opportunity would come next week. Failed forecast today! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 70 today...no credit. He was pretty clear that the opportunity would come next week. Failed forecast today! LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Newman said: HRRR and RGEM are very bold in bringing mid-60s to parts of the area later today i Might as well 60's and 70's will be the new normal for Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 For consideration. Temps around freezing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 The breeze started an pushed the temp to 49 from 38 all within an hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Above normal temps will continue through Friday then near normal for the weekend with increasing rain chances that could start as some wet snow across higher elevations of Chester County on Sunday. Milder again next wee. Today's Climate Records: High 61 (1990)/ Low 14 below zero (1934)/ Precip 1.86"(1906) and Snow (6.0") 1936 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Early nooners---58 and filtered sunshine. Have a contact in Charlotte, NC and their grocery stores are getting run for bread and milk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Early nooners---58 and filtered sunshine. Have a contact in Charlotte, NC and their grocery stores are getting run for bread and milk. Up to 56 here and rising pretty quickly at 12:40pm - also have some sun here as well. If they get snow down south I say good for them. They've had a lot of crappy winters recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Up to 56 here and rising pretty quickly at 12:40pm - also have some sun here as well. If they get snow down south I say good for them. They've had a lot of crappy winters recently. We are at 62 now. No pain here if the south gets snow. It is only weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: We are at 62 now. No pain here if the south gets snow. It is only weather. Speaking of 60s... #February9th is just one of two days (the other being February 2) left in the year with a sub-60°F record high at @millersvilleu. There had been three until December 30, 2022. Can two of those three days be eliminated in the same winter season? We'll find out in the next 12 hrs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 41 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Speaking of 60s... #February9th is just one of two days (the other being February 2) left in the year with a sub-60°F record high at @millersvilleu. There had been three until December 30, 2022. Can two of those three days be eliminated in the same winter season? We'll find out in the next 12 hrs! If the 9th's record is not broken just having Thybulle days out of a year is still amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 4 hours ago, Newman said: HRRR and RGEM are very bold in bringing mid-60s to parts of the area later today The HRRR just knocked 4-6 degrees off this predict for most areas. The HRRR being the HRRR today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 58 at 1:45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Record tying 59 at Lanco... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Record tying 59 at Lanco... Clouds moved in here and stopped our run at 62. Down to 60 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Clouds moved in here and stopped our run at 62. Down to 60 now. Sun broke out here about 45 mins ago for the first time all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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