Blizzard of 93 Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 As @Bubbler86mentioned, the 0z GFS had a snow chance on Super Bowl Sunday night. It got me dreaming a little dream of Victory & Snow…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 The 6z GFS has some front end mixed precip next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 The 0z Euro was also close on a Winter storm chance next in the next Friday to Sunday period, but just missed pulling it off this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: As @Bubbler86mentioned, the 0z GFS had a snow chance on Super Bowl Sunday night. It got me dreaming a little dream of Victory & Snow…. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Have a friend that lives in Wemberly Texas he has these ice pics from the storm the other day. That is some Montreal-level ice. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 We had a few snow showers this morning with the passage of the arctic cold front. Temperatures have fallen off from 32.7 at just before 5am to now 24.3 at 8am. Temps should steady off but not rise much this morning before falling again by mid-afternoon. We should see reading in the teens by 4pm and fall to around 8 degrees by tomorrow morning. It will be windy today with wind chills near to below zero through tonight. Tomorrow will be cold but much less wind. A warm up to again back above normal begins Sunday and we stay above normal for the rest of next week. Our next chance of rain will not be till next Thursday. The record high for today is 60 degrees from 1991. Our record low was way back in 1895 at 4 below zero. Daily precipitation record is the 1.63" that fell today in 2014. Daily snow record is the 11.0" that fell in 1961 as part of a 2 day storm that ended on the 4th with 13.2" of snow falling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Surprising wind is not to bad so far unless in increases later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Multiple 40 mph wind gusts between 3:15-4 bd again 6:30:8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That is some Montreal-level ice. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk So many friends are losing trees. It’s bad stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Just now, canderson said: So many friends are losing trees. It’s bad stuff. If we had something like that here it would be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Just now, mahantango#1 said: If we had something like that here it would be a disaster. I remember stuff similar to that back in "olden times". Nothing since I have moved back in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Mount Washington New Hampshire forecast from NWS: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.27049000000005&lon=-71.30345999999997#.Y90K43bMKXI Today Mostly sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around -39 by 5pm. Very windy, with a northwest wind around 75 mph, with gusts as high as 95 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around -46. Wind chill values as low as -99. Very windy, with a northwest wind 75 to 85 mph increasing to 85 to 95 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 120 mph. Saturday Sunny and cold, with a high near -10. Very windy, with a northwest wind 90 to 100 mph decreasing to 65 to 75 mph. Winds could gust as high as 130 mph. Saturday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around -16. Wind chill values as low as -52. Very windy, with a west wind 50 to 55 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Sunday A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Very windy, with a south wind 60 to 65 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Mount Washington New Hampshire forecast from NWS: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.27049000000005&lon=-71.30345999999997#.Y90K43bMKXI Today Mostly sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around -39 by 5pm. Very windy, with a northwest wind around 75 mph, with gusts as high as 95 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around -46. Wind chill values as low as -99. Very windy, with a northwest wind 75 to 85 mph increasing to 85 to 95 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 120 mph. Saturday Sunny and cold, with a high near -10. Very windy, with a northwest wind 90 to 100 mph decreasing to 65 to 75 mph. Winds could gust as high as 130 mph. Saturday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around -16. Wind chill values as low as -52. Very windy, with a west wind 50 to 55 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Sunday A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Very windy, with a south wind 60 to 65 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph. Just your basic -99 Wind Chill and 130MPH Gust day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Mount Washington New Hampshire forecast from NWS: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.27049000000005&lon=-71.30345999999997#.Y90K43bMKXI Today Mostly sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around -39 by 5pm. Very windy, with a northwest wind around 75 mph, with gusts as high as 95 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around -46. Wind chill values as low as -99. Very windy, with a northwest wind 75 to 85 mph increasing to 85 to 95 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 120 mph. Saturday Sunny and cold, with a high near -10. Very windy, with a northwest wind 90 to 100 mph decreasing to 65 to 75 mph. Winds could gust as high as 130 mph. Saturday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around -16. Wind chill values as low as -52. Very windy, with a west wind 50 to 55 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Sunday A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Very windy, with a south wind 60 to 65 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph. What impresses me the most about that forecast? Even up on Mt. Washington, which has the worst weather conditions in the east, it will be about 60 degrees warmer on Sunday than today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 29 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That is some Montreal-level ice. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk #realwinterisinthesouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Hopefully flying home today. And hopefully the winds back down a little this evening or I'm going to have a rocky flight into MDT. Not scheduled to arrive until late evening so hopefully winds come down some. Local forecast for MDT suggests that it will...somewhat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just your basic -99 Wind Chill and 130MPH Gust day. Crazy, I wouldn't want to be up there in the winter. Might be nice to experience it for a few minutes, but that would be enough for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 20 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: I think CC really just serves to increase variance. we've been stuck in Ninas pretty much since 2015-16 (5 in the last 7 years), and those will dump troughs into the west and try and force a SE ridge, so it's no surprise that the MA hasn't done well, especially when CC is involved. however, once we flip back to a general Nino base state, which may occur next year, I would expect the same kind of anomalous weather as the West has been seeing. there's no reason to think otherwise looking at the last 6 years from Dec-Feb, we can see all of the anomalous cold has been dumped into the NW US and Plains, which is what Ninas usually do. once we flip back to a good stretch of Ninos, I wouldn't be shocked to see the anomalies flip more to what we saw from 2009-10 to 2014-15, where much of the cold was in the E US with warmth over the WC so, overall, I do think that the band will snap the other way, so to speak, over the next year or two. would make little sense for it not to. it's also a bit of people trying to rationalize a shitty stretch of winters, when in reality, they just happen sometimes, and we've been tremendously spoiled over the last 10-15 years. it's not like the earth has profoundly changed in the last 5-10 years... CC doesn't act that quickly Well long post alert haha, I started with responding more about the current pattern we’re in and ended up getting into some other stuff I’ve been seeing posted about in here recently as well. Has there been much discussion about the PDO among the ones that discuss the overall pattern? Like a lot of people I’m sure, I’m of the opinion that the Pac has been in the driver’s seat the last several winters in our neck of the woods for good or for bad via the EPO/WPO/PNA. Not an expert in this realm by any means but I have been kind of considering and looking into that more as it’s likely a significant driver of the mid-latitude Pacific pattern and one that can have an effect over multiple winters. It’s shifted notably into a negative phase the last few winters, coupling with the persistent La Niña state which already implies SE ridge in the standard La-Nina pattern. Throw in the fact that SST in the Pac have been quite warm overall with respect to normal and also how warm the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic have been as well and it becomes somewhat obvious to a degree that “on paper” SE ridging could be a persistent problem for snow prospects on the East Coast with that combo. Specific to this winter, I also think we’ve simply been unlucky having the cold air available aside from very brief shots. Record breaking cold in Siberia and northern China during a portion of last month for example is often an indicator of the bulk of the real cold being on the other side of the hemisphere. Canada was void of anomalous cold or even normal cold to press the southeast ridge when we had a suppressed Pac jet slamming southern Cal and the SW states for the first half or so of January. To add to your point with the 2009-2015 period, comparing SST patterns to the last two truly cold winters (13-14 and 14-15) was interesting. The PDO reversed to positive during that period starting early Jan 2014. Day to day comparison 2014 vs this year 2015 vs this year Both 2014 and 2015 had the pronounced +PDO signature and both had a warm western Atlantic with 2015 looking very similar to this year being especially warm and 2014 had fairly similar SSTs in the ENSO realm. Big difference is the warm SSTs pooling along the western NAMER coast (esp 2015) in the Pac coinciding with the dominant ridging being setup in that position allowing cold air to dump into the eastern US. This year the warm SSTs are in the central Pac all the way up to the Bering Strait with cooler waters along the west coast (-PDO signature). Would seem to favor the off coast Pac ridging and western/central CONUS troughing we’ve been seeing as the dominant look so far this winter. It should be interesting to see what kind of an ENSO response we end up getting for next winter and if we continue to have a solidly -PDO. It seems our recent Nino episodes come with this index being fairly neutral or positive while Ninas couple with it being negative. Underlying factor in these SST patterns is of course that it averages a good bit warmer as a whole than 20-30+ years ago and especially so in the last 10 or so. It’s a reality on data and observations regardless of one’s view of how much CC ultimately is affecting our sensible weather in the short/intermediate timeframe. Even folks like JB, who is heavily analog driven in his forecasting approach, acknowledge this when applying older analogs to construct a forecasting idea. I saw some posting in here recently about the Ocean Heat Content, which looks like this: That’s graphing the anomaly of the oceans as a whole, while this shows specifically where heat gain/loss has been taking place in the last 30 yrs. The Atlantic and the western Pacific around Japan are the two big areas of gain in the northern hemisphere. That can ultimately have implications to our weather patterns here. How much so is the debate, there’s a lot of different variables at play even with that basic reality. I tend to agree that it’s more of a variance thing right now. In the context of a Mid-Atlantic winter I think the point some are trying to make is it’s making the difference of seeing a winter with a base crappy pattern that still delivers a couple events vs said crappy pattern not delivering anything at all…which is certainly a viable point. Of course the counterpoint to that could be when you line up a favorable pattern/setup you have a 2009-2010 or 2013-2014 type run or a Jan 2016 type one timer historic storm, and it all happens in a 5-7 year stretch like that did fairly recently. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Temp/dewpoint is down to 14ºF/3ºF this morning. Arctic frontal passage delivered a light dusting of snow and gusts up to 30mph overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Mount Washington is a “7 wonders of the world” for any weather weenie. I have been there (late summer) and it snowed the morning I went up the mountain. Truly an amazing place.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Mount Washington is a “7 wonders of the world” for any weather weenie. I have been there (late summer) and it snowed the morning I went up the mountain. Truly an amazing place. . Did you drive or take the cog railway? Or...did you hike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 44 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Hopefully flying home today. And hopefully the winds back down a little this evening or I'm going to have a rocky flight into MDT. Not scheduled to arrive until late evening so hopefully winds come down some. Local forecast for MDT suggests that it will...somewhat. You flying AA DFW-MDT? If so, I know that flight verrrrrrrrrrrry well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 10 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Blizzard gonn get the last laugh this season…lalala lock it in. that control run sure looks pretty on screen. Just need it to look perty out window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 All this talk of Mt. Washington, such a fascinating place. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the observatory up there manned year-round to take weather observations? Man, wouldn't it be something to be up there in the winter; talk about a feeling of isolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: All this talk of Mt. Washington, such a fascinating place. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the observatory up there manned year-round to take weather observations? Man, wouldn't it be something to be up there in the winter; talk about a feeling of isolation. They have made Twilight Zone type shows based on that premise (any remote locale in the world including North Pole.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Winds are absolutely howling. Hope they calm down before nightfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Did you drive or take the cog railway? Or...did you hike? No, took the car up. Wish i was in that type of shape to hike it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 44 mph gust just now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Wave/disturbed area of weather coming up the East coast this weekend in conjunction with a cold front (attached to a very north based clipper going through Southern Canada) that looks to stall or fizzle out near us could throw some light/scattered precip back into cold air for the E parts of our area.... something to watch. Not really modeled as such right now though the Fv3 and Rgem are close. The cold front does look to reinforce the chill a bit for Monday with the CMC showing well below normal lows Tue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 12Z GFS has a low scooting under PA next week with rain starting Wed afternoon and running into Friday lunchtime. It is a decent track with no cold air. It is rain up into New England so not even close for us on that one. I mention because it is not a cutter yet we still rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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