mahantango#1 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is another view of the 6z GFS snow map for Thursday/Friday WHTM-27 is not on the snow train. Still a days away till the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 34 and cloudy this Am. NAM and RGEM both have quite a nice sleet event for 6+ hours Thur AM. Rgem in particular would-be accumulating sleet. This RGEM sounding for near MDT, as the event starts, shows temps in the 20's on the ground and near 50 at 700-800mb which means snow has to fall through it. Red line is temp and green is dewpoint. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 51 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is another view of the 6z GFS snow map for Thursday/Friday I would take that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 6z Euro also came in better for Front end snow & mix for the LSV, especially from Harrisburg north & west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z Euro also came in better for Front end snow & mix for the LSV, especially from Harrisburg north & west. awesome Blizz front end thump would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z Euro starts many of us off as snow but the LSV then switches to rain due to t to the inland track of the low. The I-99 corridor & northern PA do well. 59 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS shows yet another option that could benefit CTP for the Thursday storm. The low track this run goes from NC to the DelMarVa to off the coast of OCMD to off of the NJ coast. Harrisburg & North & West if I-81 again do well this run. Well it looks like I came back to some fun trackin times ahead. Overnighters looking decent for many in true central and has that I81 special look to it. Nice to see chances lining up in the mid/extended as well. I've got some catchin up to do, but looking forward to seeing how all of this plays out. 18z last evening sure was a run that we havent seen in a while...even if only digtal snow, it was nice. 0z looked to hold serve and 6z was a tick SE. Just need thermals to be a tad better for us SE'rs to get a little as well. 6z helped in that regard, but thats alot of details to sort at 96 hrs out. Not sure if we can pull it off down here, but for the good ones, us LSV'rs know we must smell the rain for you norther/westers to cash in. Just nice to see that pattern taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 hours ago, pawatch said: I would take half of what it’s showing for Thursday. Could be Just a tune up for Christmas. Thanks Blizz! 33° here this morning. yeah I saw the worried ones suggesting that everyone was buyin in to one big run. I was sitting in a tree stand when I saw it and was glad I was harnessed i when I did While everyone here likes to post fun maps....EVERYONE here knows that one good run does not a storm make. Its great to see potential lining up, and all a big run does is show exactly that....potential for fun - especially when the pattern supports the models. Lets have some fun, and even if I end up jipped (as i typically expect w/ events like these), It's all good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: WHTM-27 is not on the snow train. Still a days away till the event. Bingo. All they can do is discuss potential to raise awareness. Smart. As stated many times, downplaying or hedging to the warm side is more often right than wrong, but we all know Susqu valley usually sits on both sides of the snow fence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Bingo. All they can do is discuss potential to raise awareness. Smart. As stated many times, downplaying or hedging to the warm side is more often right than wrong, but we all know Susqu valley usually sits on both sides of the snow fence.... So true. Most likely scenario is usually rain for the Susquehanna Valley. But things can change till this event happens. Maybe models don't have the exact handle on this yet either, but time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 34 and cloudy this Am. NAM and RGEM both have quite a nice sleet event for 6+ hours Thur AM. Rgem in particular would-be accumulating sleet. This RGEM sounding for near MDT, as the event starts, shows temps in the 20's on the ground and near 50 at 700-800mb which means snow has to fall through it. Red line is temp and green is dewpoint. Where are you seeing anything resembling 50 degrees on that sounding? I see what looks like maybe some mid to upper 30s around 800mb. Apologies if these tired eyes are misreading. Interesting days ahead. The smart play would seem to be for very little of anything accumulating down this way, with the mid to upper tier counties in line for some plowable snow. Much will be sorted out in the coming 36 hours, unless it isn't ha. .12" of rain for me yesterday, in what has been a string of underperformers around here lately, as mentioned by @Itstrainingtime Good luck to all in the money. It's good to see tracking season back in full swing. Cheers. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Alright. I am ready for my briefing. What's the story? Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 30 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Where are you seeing anything resembling 50 degrees on that sounding? I see what looks like maybe some mid to upper 30s around 800mb. Apologies if these tired eyes are misreading. Interesting days ahead. The smart play would seem to be for very little of anything accumulating down this way, with the mid to upper tier counties in line for some plowable snow. Much will be sorted out in the coming 36 hours, unless it isn't ha. .12" of rain for me yesterday, in what has been a string of underperformers around here lately, as mentioned by @Itstrainingtime Good luck to all in the money. It's good to see tracking season back in full swing. Cheers. It is not your eyes, it is mine. I was looking on my phone and was looking at the wrong diagonal line (mixing ratio line tricked me). It is actually 35-40ish between 700 and 800, not near 50. Does not change the end result but thanks for correcting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 58 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: So true. Most likely scenario is usually rain for the Susquehanna Valley. But things can change till this event happens. Maybe models don't have the exact handle on this yet either, but time will tell. I'd think it fair to say that goalposts are narrowing this far out, but as we all know. Even 50 miles either way on the Susky snow fence, makes a big diff in this subforum, and were not that close yet, so caution warranted. I'm just gonna enjoy the ride no matter how the chips fall for me. I love the thrill of the chase in finding storm patterns, and saw this potential evolution from last week (doubters can go back and find the exchange I had w/ Mag). It fits the pattern, so why not? Enjoy the ride. You could be in for a nice start to winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 NAM Fantasy Land lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 48 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Where are you seeing anything resembling 50 degrees on that sounding? I see what looks like maybe some mid to upper 30s around 800mb. Apologies if these tired eyes are misreading. Interesting days ahead. The smart play would seem to be for very little of anything accumulating down this way, with the mid to upper tier counties in line for some plowable snow. Much will be sorted out in the coming 36 hours, unless it isn't ha. .12" of rain for me yesterday, in what has been a string of underperformers around here lately, as mentioned by @Itstrainingtime Good luck to all in the money. It's good to see tracking season back in full swing. Cheers. To add to his post, I'd think that suggests more ZR than IP, as the 925 to surface is below freezing, but there is a pretty stout layer 925 up to 500 is above, so thats a large wedge to melt flakage, and a small wedge of frozen to refreeze IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, paweather said: NAM Fantasy Land lol Dews are in the mid 20’s on that panel and upper teens in true central. If that’s accurate it will be tough to scour out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 looping back over CMC, 0z had primary notably se, and that is a red flag IMO. We need primary to stay farther westl, and die a faster death, and IF it holds on longer, it screws up our once again precious thermals down this way. Also want to watch secondary and how quickly it pops off coast. The sooner the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Dews are in the mid 20’s on that panel and upper teens in true central. If that’s accurate it will be tough to scour out. Lets hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 29 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Dews are in the mid 20’s on that panel and upper teens in true central. If that’s accurate it will be tough to scour out. Some close to 1" sleet totals just north of Harrisburg (3:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 and just looping over GFS, same trend noted as well (regarding primary coming further SE). We dont want that. If that continues, its trouble for us IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 GFS 12z starts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 12Z Rgem manages to bring the precip down hard enough to avoid the melt layer sleet fest for a period in the LSV. A game day/moment by moment situation but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Road trip to SD or ND? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 SNOW to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, paweather said: SNOW to start Looks like the GFS depiction is sleet to start then over to snow/sleet mix as the layers cool a bit and precip comes down hard. Sounding say sleet/snow mix for that period. But a bump in the right direction for sure. Basically, saying mixed precip for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Looks like the GFS depiction is a sleet to start then over to snow/sleet mix as the layers cool a bit and precip comes down hard. Sounds say sleet/snow mix for that period. But a bump in the right direction for sure. Basically, saying mixed precip for quite a while. Yep panel 72 has it as sleet. I'll take it for our first event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 My main takeaway from the 12z GFS is that the thermal gradient throughout the entire column is just insanely close for most of the LSV in regards to varying precip types. Razor's edge. Plowable snow still quite unlikely for most of the area SE of I-81, IMO, but boy is this going to be close for much of CTP-land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: My main takeaway from the 12z GFS is that the thermal gradient throughout the entire column is just insanely close for most of the LSV in regards to varying precip types. Razor's edge. Plowable snow still quite unlikely for most of the area SE of I-81, IMO, but boy is this going to be close for much of CTP-land. This Kuch snow map backs the razor thin thought process. Long duration event. Thur AM into Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: My main takeaway from the 12z GFS is that the thermal gradient throughout the entire column is just insanely close for most of the LSV in regards to varying precip types. Razor's edge. Plowable snow still quite unlikely for most of the area SE of I-81, IMO, but boy is this going to be close for much of CTP-land. after taking a peek, yeah it looks like GFS ticked a tad better for LSV'rs (as already suggested). Secondary a tad further E helped a bit as well. Good to see. Thermals responded and 540 came SE a tad. Good step. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Certainly, a bump in the right direction on the GFS. Let's see what the other models do. Without any of the blocking I'd be close to punting this one due to the usual nwest trend, but this is a unique set-up. Still lots of time to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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