Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 48 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Also, quick calendar check…it’s January 30th, not March 30th, but sure, go ahead & give up! Who is this directed at? I literally said it can snow in a bad pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 26 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Because so far this year, when a "good" pattern has been showing up on ens guidance, it often is muted or wasted as we can get NS and SS to work in tandem, or the depth of cold/trough lose amplitude as we get closer to showtime. When a bad pattern shows, it usually verifies. Sorry pal....but ya just cant polish a turd and make it look good. Not saying we cant sneak a couple events in (like mid to late week as I suggested earlier), but the odds are not stacked in our favor, and being prime time for snow, its troubling for us winter enthusiasts. No polishing, but I’m just trying to find a way to be positive. Its easy to just say it’s over because it makes people feel better so they can cope. I choose not to give up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Who is this directed at? I literally said it can snow in a bad pattern. Not you… just the general vibe on the various regional forums on the website. I’ve never seen it so bad on this website in general at the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Ground is white here...most white I've seen this winter and it's all sleet. State of Emergency declaration now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Not you… just the general vibe on the various regional forums on the website. I’ve never seen it so bad on this website in general at the end of January.There’s a good reason for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 minute ago, anotherman said: There’s a good reason for that. Yes, but many are just way out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Not you… just the general vibe on the various regional forums on the website. I’ve never seen it so bad on this website in general at the end of January. Personally...for me and some others down this way, it's so bad because this winter has been putrid. 0.9" of snow for Lanco. That's really bad Blizz. And as Nut said, it's not just a us in Lanco. The eastern seaboard has been largely shutout. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: There’s a good reason for that. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Yes, but many are just way out of control. But it’s not out of control to simply state an observation or facts about how truly pathetic this winter has been. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 minute ago, anotherman said: But it’s not out of control to simply state an observation or facts about how truly pathetic this winter has been. I mean...if MDT ends up with 15" and Lanco ends up with .9", do the people around here really care how much MDT gets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 40 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah things were not looking good for the extended last week already, but I was hoping a little more time and correction might play in our favor, and the tellies would hold a bit longer for us. Not the case once again. Is what it is, and if there is any consolation, the whole friggin east coast is with us (save the favored snow belts - and they are runnin way behind as well). Just a "little bit" behind here in the Syracuse area. The 4th absolutely pathetic winter for here in the "snowbelt." This one has by far been the worst. They just keep getting crappier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Just a "little bit" behind here in the Syracuse area. The 4th absolutely pathetic winter for here in the "snowbelt." This one has by far been the worst. They just keep getting crappier. Amazing difference between Buffalo and Rochester. Almost 100". Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Just a "little bit" behind here in the Syracuse area. The 4th absolutely pathetic winter for here in the "snowbelt." This one has by far been the worst. They just keep getting crappier. I almost tagged you the other day to see what the feeling was in your thread. My sense in talking to the public is that the really cold Christmas, coming at a time that gave people something to talk about at family gatherings, has gone a long way in hiding how bad the met winter has been. We are two thirds done with it...but still, it is certainly not over yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Not you… just the general vibe on the various regional forums on the website. I’ve never seen it so bad on this website in general at the end of January. Various regional forums on the website? NYC, where they just set a record for latest first measurable snow (if they see any at all)? The Mid-Atlantic, where the major observing sites are also currently at zero for the winter, and still have a shot at their first snowless winter in history? Or this one, where even the “haves” are at 50% of normal and the rest are closer to the first two places I mentioned? Yes, a comeback is possible. But in many places where a lot of people post on these forums, this is a historically bad start to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 minute ago, TimB said: Various regional forums on the website? NYC, where they just set a record for latest first measurable snow (if they see any at all)? The Mid-Atlantic, where the major observing sites are also currently at zero for the winter, and still have a shot at their first snowless winter in history? Or this one, where even the “haves” are at 50% of normal and the rest are closer to the first two places I mentioned? Yes, a comeback is possible. But in many places where a lot of people post on these forums, this is a historically bad start to winter. Good points, but the tone is out of control by most. Way too much over reaction. People have also lost their sense of history. We have gone through this before & we will feast on good snow years again in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Personally...for me and some others down this way, it's so bad because this winter has been putrid. 0.9" of snow for Lanco. That's really bad Blizz. And as Nut said, it's not just a us in Lanco. The eastern seaboard has been largely shutout. Good points. Misery loves company…I can handle this type of bad Winter so far because everyone, besides Buffalo, is in this together. I find the years where NYC & New England get crushed with above average snow, while we get ripped off with scraps, to be much more difficult to handle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good points, but the tone is out of control by most. Way too much over reaction. People have also lost their sense of history. We have gone through this before & we will feast on good snow years again in the future. How much snow have you had this season...close to 10" or so? That can greatly influence perception. I think that's both accurate and fair to those who are overreacting while seeing nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Amazing difference between Buffalo and Rochester. Almost 100". Crazy. Yeah, Buffalo is the only place that really benefits from the times cold air sweeps in on a SW flow. They have had 3 major lake effect dumpings this year. Some of the guys in the Buffalo region (southern burbs) in our Upstate group are up to 175 inches on the year! It's amazing how the band just fizzles before it gets to Rochester. Roc and Syracuse rely on the cold air coming from the North over Lake Ontario to give us good snows. As we know, that has been bigtime limited this season. This week, we're supposed to get some lake effect with the cold air briefly sweeping in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: How much snow have you had this season...close to 10" or so? That can greatly influence perception. I think that's both accurate and fair to those who are overreacting while seeing nothing. Very true about the perception. I am at 9 inches of snow for the season, which is terrible for the end of January, but if I was shutout, I would be thrilled to get that instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I almost tagged you the other day to see what the feeling was in your thread. My sense in talking to the public is that the really cold Christmas, coming at a time that gave people something to talk about at family gatherings, has gone a long way in hiding how bad the met winter has been. We are two thirds done with it...but still, it is certainly not over yet. I think most of you know...we all moved over to a discord because we were sick of the mods/admin. micromanaging our discussions. It depends on what area of Upstate. The Buffalo crew thinks this is "one of the best winters ever" while the rest of us are irritated and just fed up with the model promises of better days and then they never come. The Synoptic pattern for Central New York pretty much since I've been here (4 winters now) has been absolutely abysmal. It's either been north of us or it's been south of us (you guys had a good winter, I think two years ago?) We've concluded that the Permaridge over the Atlantic with the boiling waters is causing us lots of issues. That, along with the continuous troughing into the Southwest and the Pacific flow. It's just been ugly, as you all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 hours ago, canderson said: MAG basically just cancelled winter in his professional, expert language. Save for some dumbass March storm that melts in 12 hours it’s probably time to think about garden plans. I guess I should clarify that in no way am I “cancelling” winter or any prospective winter weather pattern beyond the next couple weeks lol. I’ll talk longer range stuff to a point but I usually focus on things inside of 2 weeks or so. I was basically saying I’m gonna call a spade a spade when it comes to an upcoming pattern that doesn’t look great which well.. it doesn’t. However, that doesn’t mean we’re going to shut the rest of the winter down… or even the rest of February for that matter. Trying to determine pattern progression beyond the operational model range (8-15 days) is never any kind of a sure thing. Which if I’m being honest, neither is the back half of the operational model range a lot of the time. Rolling with a presumed continuation of the seasonal trend (SE ridge/western trough/limited available cold) is all fun and games until it isn’t. The MJO, for example, still has to move out of Phase 3 where it’s been stalled the last several days. While most modeling progresses this into the warmer phases it’s certainly not known how much or how long it progresses into part/all of the 4-6 realm or at all.. because we’re not there yet. I consider March very much still a part of winter, some of our bigger recent snow events have come in that month such as in 2017 and 2018. Cold patterns can still be notable and have some staying power, especially during the front half of the month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Midnight reading, and likely high for the day (Tuesday) at MDT looks to be 48 degrees. The low on Tuesday will likely be at midnight tomorrow night. It now appears that January 2023 will end with every single day of the month above normal for average temperature. That's pretty unbelievable! Did 1932 have every day above normal?? Let's say that the low Tuesday evening is 28 degrees. That gives a mean temp of 38 degrees, which is around 7 or 8 degrees above normal. I don't have the numbers, but it would seem that the 31st will bring the monthly mean temp upward roughly +0.2 degrees F. Is that enough for the #2 slot for warmest January average temp? It's going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I guess I should clarify that in no way am I “cancelling” winter or any prospective winter weather pattern beyond the next couple weeks lol. I’ll talk longer range stuff to a point but I usually focus on things inside of 2 weeks or so. I was basically saying I’m gonna call a spade a spade when it comes to an upcoming pattern that doesn’t look great which well.. it doesn’t. However, that doesn’t mean we’re going to shut the rest of the winter down… or even the rest of February for that matter. Trying to determine pattern progression beyond the operational model range (8-15 days) is never any kind of a sure thing. Which if I’m being honest, neither is the back half of the operational model range a lot of the time. Rolling with a presumed continuation of the seasonal trend (SE ridge/western trough/limited available cold) is all fun and games until it isn’t. The MJO, for example, still has to move out of Phase 3 where it’s been stalled the last several days. While most modeling progresses this into the warmer phases it’s certainly not known how much or how long it progresses into part/all of the 4-6 realm or at all.. because we’re not there yet. I consider March very much still a part of winter, some of our bigger recent snow events have come in that month such as in 2017 and 2018. Cold patterns can still be notable and have some staying power, especially during the front half of the month. Our last foot storm was in March so I'd say that even though winter maybe coming to a close for "coastal" areas, places like Central and Western PA still have plenty of time to score a storm. I've seen snow in the beginning of May here. Only thing that sucks is it doesn't stick around usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Just a "little bit" behind here in the Syracuse area. The 4th absolutely pathetic winter for here in the "snowbelt." This one has by far been the worst. They just keep getting crappier. Wow I didn’t realize Syracuse was in that bad of shape. What about Watertown? I’d imagine they’re running well above normal being a SW flow recipient off of Ontario. It illustrates the lack of NW or WNW flow setups we’ve had during favorable LES periods this winter, which I’ve felt has seemed to be more of a thing the last several winters. The Laurel’s down here benefit from NW flow when it comes to LES, which I’m sure C-NY does when it comes to non or post synoptic snowfall. I did make a post about this earlier this winter but the Co-op site on Laurel Summit, near the 7 Springs resort has had one average winter since 2013-14 with the rest of them being below average. That includes 2014-2015, which was the last truly consistent cold winter we’ve had in recent winters when it came to the heart of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Big winter finale incoming for cpa…feel it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 52 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Our last foot storm was in March so I'd say that even though winter maybe coming to a close for "coastal" areas, places like Central and Western PA still have plenty of time to score a storm. I've seen snow in the beginning of May here. Only thing that sucks is it doesn't stick around usually. It’s looking pretty snowy over there on the 511 cams tonight speaking of which. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good points, but the tone is out of control by most. Way too much over reaction. People have also lost their sense of history. We have gone through this before & we will feast on good snow years again in the future. We have to remember that the 2010's were an oddity. Normally we don't see that many big snowstorms repeatedly. Which makes it even odder because our average temps keep rising at the same time. The average in Harrisburg is now 40 in January. Before 2010 I believe the average high temp was 36 degrees. When you take the 30 year average it keeps going up 2 degrees every 10 years. It really makes me wonder what's going to happen with smaller scale snowstorms in the future. I think we'll still see monster storms once in a while because part of the reason why we've seen so many in the 2010's is due to extreme dips in the jet stream related to warming. Obviously it's not that simple since weather and the earth itself are extremely complicated and there's also many patterns that naturally occur that can last years or decades on top of the man made ones. I just think all the snowstorms spoiled us and made us forget that our general climate is getting harder to produce snow. Pennsylvania is right on that boundary of rain and snow for a lot of storms, so the warmer it gets on average the harder it's going to be for us sadly. Not trying to bring you or anyone down. Just saying things how they are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I completely disagree with @pasnownut. I still look good ,Im polished, and I think most would agree I'm a massive fucking turd. Don't give up hope @Blizzard of 93 . The living proof has spoken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I sure hope I didn't offend anyone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I shouldn't rub it in but who looks stupid now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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