MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: looking at intellicast radar, its nice to see blues hangin on below us. Not saying a big surprise is in order, but as alluded to for the last couple days, ever hour we can hang on will help. I still think it’s going to snow everywhere in the LSV on the front end, there’s snow being observed all the way into northern VA. Even with surface temps a couple degrees above freezing the column should wet bulb down. Biggest question mark is York/Lancaster and how much can get on the ground if it starts as snow. Think the biggest thing there is if the best rates go north of there initially. Otherwise Harrisburg area looks good for getting to the 2” advisory threshold IMO. The stuff over here started fast and has stayed pretty heavy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Sigh here we go again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Mod snow has commenced here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 0.9” one hour into the snow here. Moderate to heavy rate and 28ºF. It’s actually a pretty dry snow so far too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Currently sitting at 32 up from 30 at 8. No precip yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Mod snow has commenced here. How long from first flakes to moderate intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Whitetail webcams look impressive. (rate of snow falling, notsomuch trail coverage) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I still think it’s going to snow everywhere in the LSV on the front end, there’s snow being observed all the way into northern VA. Even with surface temps a couple degrees above freezing the column should wet bulb down. Biggest question mark is York/Lancaster and how much can get on the ground if it starts as snow. Think the biggest thing there is if the best rates go north of there initially. Otherwise Harrisburg area looks good for getting to the 2” advisory threshold IMO. The stuff over here started fast and has stayed pretty heavy. yeah from what I saw on the cams, nothing wasted over your way. Seeing a couple of the RGEM and GFS runs makes us LSV'r have a smidge of hope that we can keep thermals long enough to get a bit of flakage that sticks as the appreciable precip starts to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 as per 511 cams snow appears to bat aoa I81 corridor up to just above chambersburg. Keep pushin SE quickly....please and thank you. edit. snow in gettysburg as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: How long from first flakes to moderate intensity? Nothing to mod snow in 5 min here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: How long from first flakes to moderate intensity? Just moments. Driveway caving but not road yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I’m a little disappointed at the experienced posters here that were posting models at game time instead of looking at obs & radar. Clearly snow is moving over the LSV. visibility is Waynesboro is 1/8 mile and it’s ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, DDweatherman said: I’m a little disappointed at the experienced posters here that were posting models at game time instead of looking at obs & radar. Clearly snow is moving over the LSV. visibility is Waynesboro is 1/8 mile and it’s ripping. Not sure who this is pointed at, but some of us "experienced" ones where showing people how the most recent models were misrepresenting "game time" obs that didnt match. Obs were also being shared to further prove that point. Personally I did that for peeps to use/learn from as we get so hung up on the models. That is all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, pasnownut said: Not sure who this is pointed at, but some of us "experienced" ones where showing people how the most recent models were misrepresenting "game time" obs that didnt match. Obs were also being shared to further prove that point. Personally I did that for peeps to use/learn from as we get so hung up on the models. That is all. There’s absolutely an over reliance on modeling, especially in the short range/game time. Crazy how far off the NAM was at initialization vs current radar. Great rates at the moment so if you get under these bands, it’s coming down. Wet bulbed down to 30 degrees as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Ripping snow.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Still a virga fest in Middletown. Hopefully not too much longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, DDweatherman said: There’s absolutely an over reliance on modeling, especially in the short range/game time. Crazy how far off the NAM was at initialization vs current radar. Great rates at the moment so if you get under these bands, it’s coming down. Wet bulbed down to 30 degrees as well. Some people here (me included) enjoy the modelology of the hobby especially using the hourly models such as the HRRR to watch how it plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Ripping snow. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Same here, it’s piling up pretty fast. I started with nothing on the ground. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Some people here (me included) enjoy the modelology of the hobby especially using the hourly models such as the HRRR to watch how it plays out. Plow just made the first pass here already. Grass is covered. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Bones Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 It’s gettin it here as well!!!. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: There’s absolutely an over reliance on modeling, especially in the short range/game time. Crazy how far off the NAM was at initialization vs current radar. Great rates at the moment so if you get under these bands, it’s coming down. Wet bulbed down to 30 degrees as well. Using your logic, we're going to get 27" of snow today if we go solely on the fact that it's ripping fatties in Waynesboro. Without modeling, there's no reason to think it will change to rain or stop until sometime on Friday. Come on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Plow just made the first pass here already. Grass is covered. That escalated quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Plow just made the first pass here already. Grass is covered. About 1/2" here and roads are caving. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: That escalated quickly... Yes indeed. One of the quickest starts I can remember. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Yes indeed. One of the quickest starts I can remember. It was "snowing over us" for what seems like an hour or two. My temp dropped to 30 when it finally broke through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Still nothing here in Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Anduril said: Still nothing here in Harrisburg Literally any minute now...it's snowing on I83 in York county...Roundtop cam showing it's snowing really good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Using your logic, we're going to get 27" of snow today if we go solely on the fact that it's ripping fatties in Waynesboro. Without modeling, there's no reason to think it will change to rain or stop until sometime on Friday. Come on. Did I say that? What a silly reply. My point is those who say it’s not going to snow or be a shut out when you have obs on your doorstep of SN/SN+ and radar shows a batch moving your way…it’s not going to be a shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Using your logic, we're going to get 27" of snow today if we go solely on the fact that it's ripping fatties in Waynesboro. Without modeling, there's no reason to think it will change to rain or stop until sometime on Friday. Come on. Not sure how much he stops in here, but I think most of us regulars try to share a mix of models and logic and try to boil it down (bad terminology I know) that makes reasonable sense, and thats what we share w/ the masses. And for the weenie posts, many here know that they are just that, and meant often for fun and not forecasts. We ARE better than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It was "snowing over us" for what seems like an hour or two. My temp dropped to 30 when it finally broke through. I haven’t been on the forum much recently due to picking up a part time job with the school district. I’m running LIU students around. My runs starts in Cashtown, goes to Hanover, up to Dover and finally last drop is Hallam exit of 30. I have the run today since York County schools never closed. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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