Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 16 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I would love to see big snow totals in Lanco for this one, but I already know this game. 1. Primary driving way up into the upper Midwest. Southeast winds aloft will be screaming off a warm Atlantic Ocean. 2. No real cold air before the storm. 3. Low will be tucked right along the coast. That’s a recipe for rain. Areas north and west of Harrisburg could do well. . Exactly right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Chase to Caledonia? Anyone reading the maps and taking them as a forecast may be disappointed (or may not be). But if posting maps to talk model fun, I love it. LOL Yep, and that's why I said that I doubt it will end up like that. Anyone "expecting" snow in the LSV is once again setting themselves up for disappointment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 There is still a lot of time for this to change. I’m not ready to throw in the towel just yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, anotherman said: There is still a lot of time for this to change. I’m not ready to throw in the towel just yet. Neither am I. Long way to go for better OR worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Chase to Caledonia? Anyone reading the maps and taking them as a forecast may be disappointed (or may not be). But if posting maps to talk model fun, I love it. LOL I still good about where we are right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, anotherman said: There is still a lot of time for this to change. I’m not ready to throw in the towel just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Newman said: Having serious thoughts of "chasing" this storm out there in central PA, lots of similarities to Dec 1992. Anybody know of any good State Parks I could rent a cabin at in that general area of Blair and Clearfield counties? All usual disclaimers aside on details, I agree on the Dec ‘92 similarities. We have the setup to deliver that kind of event. I said this 10 days ago on page 1 of this thread. Quote So big question to me is storm track. The strong Greenland block would certainly suppress it, but getting completely overwhelmed with arctic air probably doesn’t help us either in the snow department. Being somewhere in between would be ideal of course. The -PNA is generally forecast to slowly neutralize but stay negative, which in this instance may be a good thing of keeping us in a more active gradient zone. There’d be great potential for something big if we were to line up a coastal with eastern CONUS cold in place and a -NAO induced suppressed (and blocked) storm track coupled with a very warm NW Atlantic SST wise. So we have an assortment of possibilities on the table with this, including the Euro’s KO to the interior part of C-PA. I originally thought with the initial primary low cutting way west that if would be more of a front running frozen event (if there was enough cold/CAD) but models including the GFS now are really seeing this full on coastal development. Temps are def a bit of a concern for me, and if we get this Euro type stall/capture one will have to consider the easterly fetch.. which would surely be a highly anomalous type setup in that department. A very good thing for more interior/higher elevation places, but perhaps too much of a good thing nearer to the coastal plain (WAA aloft). Sus Valley would be a tough call with that scenario. Dec ‘92 was a highly marginal storm temp wise, Harrisburg went to rain after about 6” of snow if I remember my details right and State College still had 18” even after turning to rain in the middle of the event.. Jeff Morrow and the TWC crew drove the turnpike from Harrisburg to report at Breezewood (which had over 2ft). This may have a bit better of a CAD setup than that, but we still aren’t really incorporating truly cold air into the pattern on our side of the country yet. Still though, could be enough. To add to the suggestions I would maybe check Blue Knob State Park, not sure what they have for winter cabin rentals though. If the euro scenario came to fruition you would be ground zero there on a mountain that’s second highest to Mt Davis. Parker Dam is a good spot though. I’d watch to see how things go for a couple more days of course. The current broad model/ensemble consensus on a bigger event has my attention, but this still has a high possibility of being a more minor or mix-ier event. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 I like the Marysville CTP forecast Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday Snow. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Nobody should be throwing in the towel north of Mason-Dixon. This isn't late Febraury during a wall to wall torch winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Nobody should be throwing in the towel north of Mason-Dixon. This isn't late Febraury during a wall to wall torch winter. I do not think anyone is...just some group humor. Throwing in the towel now is as bad as telling your neighbors 1-2 feet is coming. Both are big risks. Now if someone is sold on the Icon being the breadwinner this time...then towel in. LOL. The SLP is taking a tour of the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 MU likes the Dec 19th-26th period....for much of the LSV he is looking at thread the needle type situation for a snowstorm earlier. LOOOONG READ linked with a snip of it below. To make a long story short, the strength and orientation of the blocking will have to be "just right" to support a "snowmaker" across southeastern PA. In addition, the position, strength, and evolution of the storm system over Atlantic Canada will play a big role in determining whether or not.. and where.. redevelopment occurs along the East Coast. I won't dive any further into the weeds, but you can now easily see why so much uncertainty exists in the forecast late next week. Predictability and accuracy beyond 3-5 days decrease and are greatly reduced during strong -NAO periods, and numerical computer models don't hande the evolution of storm systems very well. Thus, the forecast beyond 5 days is and will continue to be rife with uncertainty for the foreseeable future. Special Weather Discussion | Millersville University Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 18Z GFS had a fairly decent jump east with the position of the SLP bringing snow into the Western and Northern LSV and all areas North and West of there. It drills just North and West of Philly as the low escapes and does not overwhelm them with an easterly flow. Because it escapes, totals in Northern PA are close to cut in half in some cases. Some snow in the South and East LSV but not like I81 and N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 18Z GFS had a fairly decent jump east with the position of the SLP brining snow into the Western LSV and all areas North and West of there. Good stuff. Like I said I’ll take 6” before a changeover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 18Z shows how us Eastern LSV could scores with rain to snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Superstorm said: 18Z shows how us Eastern LSV could scores with rain to snow. . Yep, if the low escapes while strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I like the Marysville CTP forecast Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday Snow. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%. I was just going to post mine from Tamaqua, but they're similar. Daytime temps are borderline, but we all know that 36 may end up being 32 or 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Let’s go 0z! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 hour ago, paweather said: Let’s go 0z! The election's over. He lost... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 GFS is snow for the Poconos - maybe. Very weird solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 55 minutes ago, Voyager said: The election's over. He lost... lol nicely played 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Light snow here in AltoonaSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Nothing is over you just dont believe one bad model run didnt loose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 Light snow falling in Marysville. Light partial covering on car tops & mulch. 33 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Car and roofs covered in HBG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 26 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Light snow falling in Marysville. Light partial covering on car tops & mulch. 33 degrees 24 minutes ago, canderson said: Car and roofs covered in HBG Congrats on scoring this Am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Congrats on scoring this Am. Snow Rate picked up a bit with some larger flakes. Grass has a light partial covering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Congrats on scoring this Am. Current Ob. 33 and rain. More of that to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Current Ob. 33 and rain. More of that to come Rain here as well. 34. Our south standing took us out this AM, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 8 hours ago, canderson said: GFS is snow for the Poconos - maybe. Very weird solution. Hey, even if this late week thing does not evolve correctly, the GFS (only commonly used model that goes out to Christmas) has 2-3 more chances for a White Christmas event. Right now, only the Euro sig shows snow in parts of the LSV for late week and man it is a forum splitter. I do not buy this though as to snow in the Western LSV when you have a decaying (or Wiggum Rotting) SLP in MIchigan and a developing SLP in Havre De Grace. Sleet, sure, but hard for me to fathom the entire column survives a Western Low that close when the developing low is on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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