MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Nice looking cyclone. Too bad the low didn’t stay on I-10 til it got over to about I-95 haha. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Snowing at my parents in Texas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Being a big fan of the Nam, this is one of the times I would like to see other Meso's follow. No go on the 01Z HRRR for the higher amounts but let's see what the Rgem does. Nam bounced too much between runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Snowing at my parents in Texas. Insult to injury. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Jesus. Some of the latest imagery makes me think I could lose to Lanco on this one if things go wrong. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: Jesus. Some of the latest imagery makes me think I could lose to Lanco on this one if things go wrong. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Someone is going to be dry slotted on the waa. Hopefully people in other states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Sheesh might be a non event here when it's all said and done. I guess just hope for a bust. Most guidance has been supportive of at least a couple inches generally from the metro north, which I’d feel okay about. The big question is the south of the metro and how much warm advection precip can actually manage its way up into the rest of SW PA early, like especially prior to and near 12z. It’ll snow anywhere if there’s a more expansive precip shield that gets into PA early enough. Even without much of that, the main part of the system with the direct southerly flow straight from the Gulf of Mexico could still yield a start as snow with pretty heavy rates even in further SW PA but obviously time would really be limited there before the column temps get routed and then the dry slot arrives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Rgem really strange depiction but on the plus side it did move snow south. Rouzerville to trainingtime special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Big change wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Big change wow . Great trends on 0z runs for the LSV 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Big change wow . Basically what atomix said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Great trends on 0z runs for the LSV I’m preparing for 3-4 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, paweather said: I’m preparing for 3-4 right now. That is what gfs shows. Kuch is 3.8 at Mdt while 10-1 is 5. On pivotal. Like rgem it is a bit scattershot on where the snow totals end up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Forecast low was 31 - it's currently 27 with clear skies... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Forecast low was 31 - it's currently 27 with clear skies... The trend is the LSV’s friend at 0z Here is the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4” in two hours on the RGEM. I’d pay cash for that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: The trend is the LSV’s friend at 0z The pivotal map looks nothing like that. Has 1" in western Cumberland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The trend is the LSV’s friend at 0z Here is the GFS That’s 4” Lebanon County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The pivotal map looks nothing like that. Has 1" in western Cumberland. Lol… here is the 0z Kuchera…. I think @CarlislePaWx will still do quite well if this verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol… here is the 0z Kuchera…. I think @CarlislePaWx will still do quite well if this verified These close situations always bring out the worst in model site difference. Tt is never good for mixed so we have pivotal and wb with its normal large differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: These close situations always bring out the worst in model site difference. Tt is never good for mixed so we have pivotal and wb with its normal large differences. The bottom line is the “south” trend continued on most models this evening. The GFS has been very consistent for days around the Harrisburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol… here is the 0z Kuchera…. I think @CarlislePaWx will still do quite well if this verified Why thank you for thinking of me! The pivotal map certainly shows the western half of Cumberland with around 2". WB shows 5" for nearly the entire county! In any case, with the NAM's suddenly moving the snow line south by 50 miles, I'm back in the game with around 3". I think 2-4" is probably a good call for me for now. I'd like to exceed 3.3" which is my largest event so far this season back in December. As always, if a minimum of 2" falls, I consider that a win since all the grass gets covered around the 2" mark. BTW, skies still totally clear here with a temp down to 27.3 and a dew point of 24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Best of luck tomorrow everyone! First snow event up here for me 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I just came across this from a TV station. I don't know if anybody posted this when it came out in December. It covers highlights and stats for every winter for the last 100 years so you can look up the year you were born. I was born in the fall so I didn't find the year of my birth interesting, but the year after when I was a few months old. I wish the stats were just for PA and not the whole country, but it is is still pretty interesting. https://www.abc27.com/history/what-winter-was-like-the-year-you-were-born/?ipid=promo-link-block1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3:32a: I was checking around and saw that NWS has gotten rid of all Winter Weather Watches in North Central PA and replaced them with Winter Weather Advisories. None of the text forecasts mention it will be heavy wet snow and only NWS text mentions wind gusts, saying up to 30 when Advisory says 40. Lots of people won't realize how bad it will be because they won't know about wind gusts and heavy wet snow. It wouldn't be hard for all the weather companies to list wind gusts in their text forecasts. As someone who doesn't drive, let me tell you high wind gusts can be the make the difference between deciding to go out or stay home. On a lighter note, I have a dental appointment at 2:00, less than a 10 minute drive from where I live in Williamsport. I was going to cancel but didn't since new appointments are going out to July. I can take bus or Uber and the dental office may or may not cancel afternoon appointments. I was hoping to be able to figure out by now if I can probably make it or not, but I still have no idea. So if you want, you can weigh in on whether I will go or not. * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Wind gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow-covered roads and reduced visibility will make travel difficult. Gusty winds and heavy wet snow may result in downed trees and power outages. Snow will transition to mixed precipitation during the afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 There is a deepening Echo already entering the Area at 4:30am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Nothing Hit the the ground here in Fairview Township out of the first deeper return that passed. The eastern flank of the Waa p shield looks to be very early, and dry atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 is the storm drier then modeled ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Not a goddamn flakeSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ruin said: is the storm drier then modeled ? No there is fire hose coming out the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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