Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You might very well be right! As of now, none of us can say with any certainty how much or how little it will snow in our general area. We all have opinions and there's reasons behind all of them. I do find it somewhat humorous that you've been bashing the GFS most of this season, but now that's "forecasting" the most snow...you support it. According to the handbook in Chapter 2, section 3, paragraph 1…. Hug the model that shows the most snow for your own yard! Yes, I have recently bashed the GFS, especially in the medium & long range. The short range can’t be discounted. I am also giving it credit for consistency with this storm for days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Why such a disparity between euro / gfs and mesos? Normally they tighten up at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 36 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I dunno if I’d call it straight-forward haha, at least the part that ultimately matters (snow on the ground). GFS is getting good snow to the LSV and even SW PA because it focuses the preceding warm advection snowfall there instead of a thinner stripe across northern PA as the higher res short range models and the Euro have been showing. I tend to think there will be better coverage with a system like this to deliver something closer to a Euro type solution but I’m not currently buying the full GFS type scenario that has some of the best totals actually in southern PA and some of the Sus Valley. I mentioned in my post in the last page that will have to see how radar trends go tonight and how well the meso guidance is modeling it. The WAA stuff is the key part of seeing any notable accums (advisory type amounts) in southern PA. Good points! What I meant as far as “straightforward” just refers to this storm not having a “complicated” secondary low, low transfer or upper low to factor in to this event. The GFS might have a chance tomorrow of coming close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: According to the handbook in Chapter 2, section 3, paragraph 1…. Hug the model that shows the most snow for your own yard! Yes, I have recently bashed the GFS, especially in the medium & long range. The short range can’t be discounted. I am also giving it credit for consistency with this storm for days. I’m all in with chapter two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Almost... Buckeye is about 10 miles southwest of where I live. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Voyager said: Almost... Buckeye is about 10 miles southwest of where I live. Haha come back and live in the LSV your attraction to Mother Nature and the snow weather gods please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: Almost... Buckeye is about 10 miles southwest of where I live. Bro move the fuck back weather has been shit since you left! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 16 minutes ago, Anduril said: Bro move the fuck back weather has been shit since you left! Yeah really. The whole nation seemed to flip. Warm northeast, cold southwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Main roads are brined around here - you'd think that Lancaster hasn't seen snow in a long time or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Main roads are brined around here - you'd think that Lancaster hasn't seen snow in a long time or something.I’m currently around brining in Bethlehem… lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Main roads are brined around here - you'd think that Lancaster hasn't seen snow in a long time or something. I expect to see a plow sitting at every major exit on 15/83 tomorrow AM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Rain turning to snow (snow mostly West and S/W of MDT) spreads into the LSV between 10 and 11 tomorrow on the 0Z HRRR. Quick glance at the snow map shows a similar setup to 18Z. Snow does not make much inroads S/E of Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Temp is down to 27 with clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Rain turning to snow (snow mostly West and S/W of MDT) spreads into the LSV between 10 and 11 tomorrow on the 0Z HRRR. Quick glance at the snow map shows a similar setup to 18Z. Snow does not make much inroads S/E of Harrisburg. Roads won’t cave I doubt regardless so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I noticed about 2 days ago the spring bulbs Dafodills, narcissus are out of the ground about a half inch. Also in late December it was after 9:00am before I'd see the sun peeking over the mountain, now this morning it was 8:42am that I seen the sun. So we're moving in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I noticed about 2 days ago the spring bulbs Dafodills, narcissus are out of the ground about a half inch. Also in late December it was after 9:00am before I'd see the sun peeking over the mountain, now this morning it was 8:42am that I seen the sun. So we're moving in the right direction. Lots of trees down here have buds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Here is the 0z HRRR. Over 2 inches of snow in Harrisburg this run @canderson & @Mount Joy Snowman might be able to make their snow angels tomorrow on Front St. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Lots of trees down here have buds. I didn’t think that there were any trees left in Harrisburg after all of the wind storms over the years?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Biggest 0z model run of this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 0z HRRR. Over 2 inches of snow in Harrisburg this run @canderson & @Mount Joy Snowman might be able to make their snow angels tomorrow on Front St. Might not be possible if wind driven garbage cans are compromising your safety. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Snowboard is deployed. Some early clearing has allowed for some rad cooling and temps are down to 26/23ºF currently. I just want at least 4 inches, some pingers to anchor the pack, and shut it down with the dry slot. All I ask for out of this system haha. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: Snowboard is deployed. Some early clearing has allowed for some rad cooling and temps are down to 26/23ºF currently. I just want at least 4 inches, some pingers to anchor the pack, and shut it down with the dry slot. All I ask for out of this system haha. My goal for this storm is 3 for my yard & 2 for MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Nam with a big adjustment south. This is Kuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam with a big adjustment south. This is Kuch. The 10:1 on TT looks even better. It’s probably clown but interesting nonetheless. Areas that can stay snow for an hour or two could do ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Looks like the 0z 3k NAM is at least looking a lot more like the HRRR, finally. Still pretty generous on pingers and ZR but it’s finally addressing the CAD setup in south-central east of the Alleghenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Looks like 3-4” in Palmyra LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Looks like the 0z 3k NAM is at least looking a lot more like the HRRR, finally. Still pretty generous on pingers and ZR but it’s finally addressing the CAD setup in south-central east of the Alleghenies. Yes, both 0z NAMs had a major improvement for the Harrisburg area and Cumberland, Dauphin & Lebanon counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Looks like the 0z 3k NAM is at least looking a lot more like the HRRR, finally. Still pretty generous on pingers and ZR but it’s finally addressing the CAD setup in south-central east of the Alleghenies. Sheesh might be a non event here when it's all said and done. I guess just hope for a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Looks like 3-4” in Palmyra LOL Maybe we can get 1 more similar bump south to get the Lancaster & York crowd more involved? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Maybe we can get 1 more similar bump south to get the Lancaster & York crowd more involved? The 0z FV3 gets Lancaster & York in the game tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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